Houston scored 27.3 pts per game with Schaub at the helm,
then that average dropped to 19 since the band of backups have taken over. Mind you, these 3 games played (since Schaub’s
departure to the IR) were all against top 3 defenses—Atlanta, Jacksonville, and
Cincinnati.
TJ Yates is looking like a savior in Houston. Though, he did have a great come from behind,
last minute win vs Cincy last week—I don’t think he is nearly as good as
advertised.
Let’s look at the
Bengals game first. Houston
rushed for 144 yards on the ground vs the
Bengals last week (5.1 per rush), yet the Texans only have only 4.3 ypc this
season. Houston has faced 3 teams that
ranked higher than Cincy in run defense this season, so let’s look to see how
they fared: Atlanta ranks 5th allowing just 4.0 ypc, and Houston’s
rush per carry average was 3.6 per carry in that game. Vs Baltimore’s 2nd ranked rush D,
the Texans only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. The Texans faced Pittsburgh’s 6th
ranked run D (allowing an average of 4.0 per carry for the season), and Houston’s
average rush attempt was 5.1 (this is
the sole game besides Cincy where Houston ran against a top ranked rushing
defense and either went above their average yards per carry , or went above the
opposing teams average yards per rush (season). The reason the Texans averaged 5.1 vs
Pitt? Matt Schaub’s 6.6 yards passing
per attempt (not per completion mind you….PER ATTEMPT) which kept Pittsburghs
defense off balance just enough to run Foster at the 5.1 ypc. Vs Cincy?
Simple, DE Pat Sims was out—cincy’s best run stopper. How different is cincys top 10 run D without
Sims? Cincy averaged allowing only 3.5 ypc (which would have them ranked 3rd
in the nfl) before Sims was injured.
Since Sims was injured the Bengals are allowing 4.9 ypc (which would
have them ranked next to last in the NFL).
Hence, the mainstream media has
Yates as the saving grace in Houston, but TJ Yates did pass for 300 yards, 2
TDs only 1 INT, and completed 59% of his passes (26/44). The numbers look pretty good for a rookie,
but let’s really look at that game from all angles.
The real look into
Houston’s game last week: Cincy
(with Sims) averaged only 2.5 sacks per game, yet they got to Yates 5 times for
a total loss of 32 yards—yates holds the ball too long, and is challenged in
his defensive reads. Next, Houston
trailed Cincy the whole game up until the final 7 seconds of the game. His game winning drive was kept alive by a
questionable pass interference call on 3rd down with 18 seconds
remaining. This is all against a team
that in effect is (since being without Sims’s run stopping expertise) next to
last in rush defense.
Yates vs Atlanta: In the first quarter Yates once again held
the ball too long and was sacked/fumbled and James Sanders picked it up and
returned it for a touchdown (called back / negated). With 10:13 to go in the 2nd on 3rd and goal in Yates connected
with Dreessen for a 3 yard TD which was rightfully challenged but upheld. In this game Yates completed 48% of his
passes for 188 yards.
Yates vs Jax:
Yates passed for 127 yards in this game.
Jax is another team defense that was decimated by injuries in the last
month (line and secondary)
Wade Phillips: Phillips is on medical leave for a ‘medical
procedure’ this week. Phillips is the
play called for the Houston defense, and that is a huge missing piece in this
game. To exemplify how important
Phillips is to this squad: In 2010 (pre-phillips era) Houstons defense was
ranked 30th in the League, and since Phillips took over the defense
(and play calling) they ascended to #1)
This will bode well for Cam Newton.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers average scoring 24 pts per game. The Panthers averaged passing 57.62% of their
offensive plays (season), but have balanced that percentage to 50% over their
last 3 games (coincidently they have went 2-1 ATS since that time). In the last 3 games Newton has thrown 3 TDs
and 2 INTs which is much improved from his season TD/INT ration of 15/16. In those 3 games Newtons QB rating has
improved from his season’s rating of 81.1 to an average of 89.9.
Interesting notes: 3
of 4 of the panther victories have come against
rookie QB’s. Houston have given up 50%
more sacks per game since Yates has started than when Schaub was quarterbacking
this squad. Over the last 3 games,
Carolina has averaged scoring 29 pts per game in comparison to Houston’s 19 per
game. Granted, the Texans have played
better defenses than the Panthers have.
Redzone scoring: Over
the past 3 games, Carolina has converted 88.89% TD’s in the RZ in comparison to the Texans
55.56%.
Time of
possession: in the last 3 games,
Carolina has controlled the ball 54.58% compared to Houston’s 52.89
Motivation: Texans have locked up a playoff spot, and
have a 3 game lead in the AFC South over the Titans. Carolina has accepted that there will be no
playoff spot for them this season, but they are motivated and believe in next
year. This is one of the Panther’s last
2 chances to beat playoff bound team with a winning record. This team has not given up this season—indicative
by the improvements that have been making late in the season.
Sharps/Squares: 53% of the Squares are on Houston, and it
appears that a few Sharp dollars are coming in (intermittently) on the
Panthers.
Summary: Carolina is
going to have to get to Yates. Carolina does
not have any consistent (combined) Hits/Hurries/Sacks leaders on the team, but
they do average 2 sacks per game. In their
3 of the Panther’s 4 victories (vs rookie QB’s) they sacked the QB a total of 8
times. Houston is without their most
important player this week—Wade Phllips—and I think that is going to aid Cam
Newton greatly. Carolina has begun to
balance their attack, they are scoring better, and they would love to show
their value vs a winning quality team.
TJ Yates is just not as good as the media is making him out to be (he
has potential to be a starter in this
league though. I think Houston will
continue to try to run the ball, but Newton is going to put more pts up than
the betting public is expecting, and Yates may have to rely on the pass more
than the Texan Coaching staff would want.
Carolina was a 6.5 (or more) Dog 4 times this season and the are 3-1 ATS
in those games (Houston was laying 6.5—or more—chalk 3 times this season and
are 2-1 ATS in those games, but only one of those were without Schaub (Jax and
they only covered the line by 1). I like
Carolina to win this game SU, but I will only lay a small bet on the ML…primary
plays below:
Carolina +3.5 first half
Carolina +6 game
Carolina 27 – Houston 17
Houston has been a favorite of 6 or more 4 times this season and they are 3-0-1 in those games. Where are you seeing a loss? They pushed in their first game against Jax where they were favored by 10. They covered 9 against Indy, 10.5 against Cleveland, and 6 against Jacksonville.
I notice you add that they only covered by 1 against Jacksonville, but you have to factor in that it was leinart's first start and he went down before the half. The Texans didn't even attempt to do anything on offense in the second half. They were just happy with playing field position and letting the defense carry them to a win. The Texans also spotted the Jags 7 points in that game when Foster fumbled on the first drive and Jax returned it for a TD. So Houston basically covered 13 points with a crazy QB situation.
Houston has been a favorite of 6 or more 4 times this season and they are 3-0-1 in those games. Where are you seeing a loss? They pushed in their first game against Jax where they were favored by 10. They covered 9 against Indy, 10.5 against Cleveland, and 6 against Jacksonville.
I notice you add that they only covered by 1 against Jacksonville, but you have to factor in that it was leinart's first start and he went down before the half. The Texans didn't even attempt to do anything on offense in the second half. They were just happy with playing field position and letting the defense carry them to a win. The Texans also spotted the Jags 7 points in that game when Foster fumbled on the first drive and Jax returned it for a TD. So Houston basically covered 13 points with a crazy QB situation.
Vs jax -10 PUSHED
Vs INDY -9 Covered
Established in 1995,
. GL 2 U today! 
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