Johnson's Super Bowl Picks

OVERALL RECORD:  34-27   (+6.8u)
PLAYOFFS RECORD:  7-2  (+5.6)

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So here we are.  What a season. 

Posted: 9/4/2014 1:17:49 PM

SUPER BOWL


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS  27

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS  23

That was my post in my NFL Predictions thread...started in the beginning of September.  Why would there be a reason to stray from that now?

New England Patriots -1  (4.4 to win 4)

Never made a bet so large in my Covers gambling life.  I'm going to give a long asss write-up on each aspect of this game and why I think it's going to be an "easy" win for the Patriots.

1.  Discipline.

The Seahawks are one of the most penalized teams in the league.  They routinely rely on broken plays and improvising.  Russell Wilson showed today what he can do when he is forced to sit in the pocket and try and make plays.  The Packers did a fantastic job of keeping him in the pocket and saying to him and his below average receivers...beat us.

2.  Coaching.

There can no longer be any doubt that the Patriots have the ultimate coaching advantage over any team in the NFL.  With the movements pre-snap...the formations....the ability to pass the ball every time to win...the ability to run the ball every time to win, it doesn't matter.  The Patriots find a way to take away what you do best on offense and take advantage of what you do worst on defense. 

3.  Revenge.

I've said this in numerous threads in numerous sports over the years.  Revenge is possibly the greatest betting angle out there.  The Patriots lost the most heartbreaking of all Super Bowls the last time they were in Glendale Arizona.  The helmet catch was the ultimate stomach punch.  The perfect season derailed by a random, bullshlt catch by a receiver that would never catch another ball in the NFL.  When it comes to guys like Brady and Belicheck...this stuff matters.  You think they don't want to avenge that?  You think they don't want to go into this stadium and avenge that terrible loss to a team that just barely made the playoffs?



Here's the biggest reason why I'm BIG on the Patriots in this game.  They take away what you do best on offense.  Plain and simple.  The Colts pass the ball to Fleener and Hilton...especially Hilton...and they took that away from them.  The Ravens had a great running game with Forsett and were able to control the clock with him...as well as had a weak secondary.  So what did they do?  Took away the run late and absolutely raped the secondary in the 2nd half.

The Seahawks offense essentially does one thing well...run the ball.  Yes, Wilson is insanely good under pressure and when things break down.  But the Patriots don't put pressure on the quarterback.  I expect them to put 7-8 in the box the whole game and take away Lynch.  I expect them to make Russell Wilson try and pass the ball against them and have below average receivers try and beat Revis and Browner and McCourty and Chung. 

Here's the other thing the Patriots do...turn you into a complete mindf*ck on the defensive end.  Are they going to run it 40 times with Blount?  Are they going to throw it 40 times with Brady?  Are they going to try all kinds of fancy formations and movements to confuse your defense?  Are they going to throw it deep?  Are they going to throw it short?   You have NO IDEA what this offense will do.  And in this league, that's deadly. 

I think it's not going to be close.  I think the Patriots take control early.  I think Brady makes his one final stand as the greatest QB of all-time.  I think making sure that a team doesn't win two in a row because the Pats were the last team to do that means a whole hell of a lot to the Patriots.  I think Belicheck is 10x better than Pete Carroll as a head coach.  I think that the Patriots will do whatever it takes to make sure Lynch doesn't run crazy.  I think that Brandon Browner will make a huge play early to turn the tides.

PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS  31  SEAHAWKS 17

I have read your threads throughout the season and over the years.  I agree and thanks for your input.  You are a definite value to this site and I appreciate your thoughts.  Best of Luck!

I have to take issue with your take on Seattle not being able to run the ball against this patriots defense.
Justin Forsett and the Ravens ran for 130 yards and they had over 400 yards of offense.
Why will they be able to all of a sudden stop a more physical runner and a far more mobile quarterback?
Wilson adds another dimension with his legs and the read option.
The problem I see for the pats is that their strength is in the secondary.
But Seattle is a run first team.
And you can run on new England.

Much appreciated Kazual.  There will be more prop plays once those come out later on

When was the last time that the Patriots played a run first team however?  Yes, the Ravens put up a ton of yardage on the Pats...but how much of that was in the 2nd half when it mattered?  That's one of my major points is that the Patriots will load the box and blitz like crazy and force the Seahawks to have to throw to win the game.

Yeah lost like 50 bucks on props tonight but it was fun as hell and i though my plays were solid.  They always seem solid before the game is over lol.  Best of luck bro! 

Nice. I'm going large on NE too!

Sorry But No 

I like the thread from Sept .GL /But making write-ups and making these large bets going forward on day 1 without knowing how the teams came out of the games .Discounting all that could go wrong with 2 weeks to go . Not giving the Hawks a shot even though for 2 years not many have as they have buried the league .  Sounds exactly like all those Denver lovers last year ,  same threads day 1  same people not breaking down the teams objectively .  Love the Pats yesterday ,might love them again but making picks so soon is a recipe for disaster.

I made this pick based on the teams that I saw yesterday.  The Seahawks won because of undisciplined plays by the Packers and mistakes.  They couldn't hold on to the ball and made the Packers defense look legendary.  Discipline doesn't just randomly show up.  The Patriots are the most disciplined team in the league...and it's not even close.  They will find something to expose in the Seahawks defense...whether it's running the ball 45 times, throwing it deep against one-armed Richard Sherman, throwing for 3-5 yards at a time, something.

What am I going to get by waiting?  I already could have got the Pats at +2.5...but didn't get it in in time.  Is waiting to make the bet next Thursday going to give me some sort of insight that I don't know about?  I was huge on the Seahawks last year as well...just was waiting for the best line possible.  I think this is the best line possible right now, so I jumped on it.

this analysis is so spot on and exactly what i think. 

A mistake many bettors make.

Generally, yes

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

New England Patriots -1  (4.4 to win 4)

Never made a bet so large in my Covers gambling life.  I'm going to give a long asss write-up on each aspect of this game and why I think it's going to be an "easy" win for the Patriots.

1.  Discipline.

The Seahawks are one of the most penalized teams in the league.  They routinely rely on broken plays and improvising.  Russell Wilson showed today what he can do when he is forced to sit in the pocket and try and make plays.  The Packers did a fantastic job of keeping him in the pocket and saying to him and his below average receivers...beat us.

2.  Coaching.

There can no longer be any doubt that the Patriots have the ultimate coaching advantage over any team in the NFL.  With the movements pre-snap...the formations....the ability to pass the ball every time to win...the ability to run the ball every time to win, it doesn't matter.  The Patriots find a way to take away what you do best on offense and take advantage of what you do worst on defense. 

3.  Revenge.

I've said this in numerous threads in numerous sports over the years.  Revenge is possibly the greatest betting angle out there.  The Patriots lost the most heartbreaking of all Super Bowls the last time they were in Glendale Arizona.  The helmet catch was the ultimate stomach punch.  The perfect season derailed by a random, bullshlt catch by a receiver that would never catch another ball in the NFL.  When it comes to guys like Brady and Belicheck...this stuff matters.  You think they don't want to avenge that?  You think they don't want to go into this stadium and avenge that terrible loss to a team that just barely made the playoffs?



Here's the biggest reason why I'm BIG on the Patriots in this game.  They take away what you do best on offense.  Plain and simple.  The Colts pass the ball to Fleener and Hilton...especially Hilton...and they took that away from them.  The Ravens had a great running game with Forsett and were able to control the clock with him...as well as had a weak secondary.  So what did they do?  Took away the run late and absolutely raped the secondary in the 2nd half.

The Seahawks offense essentially does one thing well...run the ball.  Yes, Wilson is insanely good under pressure and when things break down.  But the Patriots don't put pressure on the quarterback.  I expect them to put 7-8 in the box the whole game and take away Lynch.  I expect them to make Russell Wilson try and pass the ball against them and have below average receivers try and beat Revis and Browner and McCourty and Chung. 

Here's the other thing the Patriots do...turn you into a complete mindf*ck on the defensive end.  Are they going to run it 40 times with Blount?  Are they going to throw it 40 times with Brady?  Are they going to try all kinds of fancy formations and movements to confuse your defense?  Are they going to throw it deep?  Are they going to throw it short?   You have NO IDEA what this offense will do.  And in this league, that's deadly. 

I think it's not going to be close.  I think the Patriots take control early.  I think Brady makes his one final stand as the greatest QB of all-time.  I think making sure that a team doesn't win two in a row because the Pats were the last team to do that means a whole hell of a lot to the Patriots.  I think Belicheck is 10x better than Pete Carroll as a head coach.  I think that the Patriots will do whatever it takes to make sure Lynch doesn't run crazy.  I think that Brandon Browner will make a huge play early to turn the tides.

PREDICTION:  PATRIOTS  31  SEAHAWKS 17

How are the Seahawks more talented?

Go down the list of players in this game and the Patriots have the advantage at a lot of places...including the most important one, coaching.

You call it bending the rules?  They didn't bend the rules at all...they just do things that nobody else thinks of or has the skill to pull it off.  I love all the Patriots haters that come out of the woodwork and immediately throw out the "cheating" and "rule bending" but don't mention the fact that the Seahawks are the most suspended team in the league because of rules violations.

You have a good write up.  I am leaning the Seahawks at the moment.  I want to see the health of the secondary and Lynch.  The thing you have to realize is that the Seahawks had one of their worst games in years.  And they still somehow won.  Yes they got lucky with the onside kick.  But the fact that they even had a chance at the end with all those turnovers was amazing to me.  

I analyze games mostly on two things...what do yo do well and what do you not do well?

The Patriots are the absolute best in the league at taking away what you do best.  The Seahawks rely on a strong running game, and forcing mistakes.  The Patriots don't make mistakes.  Period.  The Seahawks thrive on taking advantage of mistakes and broken plays.  My guess is that the Patriots DON'T pressure Russell Wilson...instead let him sit back there and try and find an open receiver.  It won't happen.  What was the last game for the Seahawks where they went up against a great offense, and won because of their performance in the trenches?

Here's the answer...Week 3 against Denver.  And that was at home, and just barely. 

Other than that they've beaten weaker QB's week in and week out...Ryan Lindley's, Drew Stanton's, Shaun Hill's, Broken down Colin Kaepernick's, Mark Sanchez's.

Are you kidding me?  That's supposed to go in and all of a sudden beat Tom Brady with Edelman, Gronk, Blount, LaFell, and who knows what else?

I totally agree. Pats win and most likely big

CM you are giving NE way too much credit here! If Seattle is smart they will go back and look at the tapes of when NE played the Jets twice this year the key to success lies within!

The more I breakdown each position and how the teams react in different situations..the more I see an easy Patriots win.  This isn't last year with the Broncos who had one type of offensive attack and a weak defense.  Last year they could just blitz the hell out of Peyton Manning and knock him around...this year they blitz and Brady hits the five yard passes all day.

Seattle plays undisciplined football...you can't deny that.  They get by on the other teams mistakes and broken plays.  Those are two things that the Patriots just don't allow.  You think the Patriots mis-manage the last 5 minutes of the NFC Championship after the interception?  Or botch the onside kick?  Or botch the 2-point conversion?  Or fail to get in the endzone from inside the 5 on a couple of occasions?