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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Is this a dumb idea?

    Action_Junkee
    winnipeg_pimp
    DoubleUp4Life
    Danny9999
    updog
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    Action_Junkee
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2022 - 11:06 PM ET #1

    I have 2k to win 2k on bengals to win the AFC NORTH. They are currently -250


    I’m thinking of putting 

    1k to win $5,650 on the Ravens to win the division. They need to win out against the rams and Steelers. And Bengals to lose against the Chiefs and Browns. 

    1k to win $5,690 on the Browns to win the division. They need to win out against the Steelers and Bengals and Ravens to lose one of their remaining games. 

    300$ to win $3,525 on the Steelers to win the division. This is just just in case by some miracle they do win it. 

    So my question is does this make sense? Im essentially free rolling. Worst case scenario I lose 300$ Right?

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    I have 2k to win 2k on bengals to win the AFC NORTH. They are currently -250


    I’m thinking of putting 

    1k to win $5,650 on the Ravens to win the division. They need to win out against the rams and Steelers. And Bengals to lose against the Chiefs and Browns. 

    1k to win $5,690 on the Browns to win the division. They need to win out against the Steelers and Bengals and Ravens to lose one of their remaining games. 

    300$ to win $3,525 on the Steelers to win the division. This is just just in case by some miracle they do win it. 

    So my question is does this make sense? Im essentially free rolling. Worst case scenario I lose 300$ Right?

     
    Action_Junkee
    Action_Junkee
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2022 - 11:13 PM ET #2

    Actually if the Steelers win I’m down like -475. Worse case

    Reply

    Actually if the Steelers win I’m down like -475. Worse case

     
    winnipeg_pimp
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:14 AM ET #3

    The bengals are probably winning division mabey bet on the browns cause they play steelers and bengals Baltimore and Pittsburgh too injured I think

    Reply

    The bengals are probably winning division mabey bet on the browns cause they play steelers and bengals Baltimore and Pittsburgh too injured I think

     
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:19 AM ET #4

    Don't hedge ..Let it ride fam ...Bengalsight sweep their board,  at the very least they'll smash the Faker Mayfeilds next week 

    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
    Reply

    Don't hedge ..Let it ride fam ...Bengalsight sweep their board,  at the very least they'll smash the Faker Mayfeilds next week 

     
    Danny9999
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:33 AM ET #5

    I don't understand why you like them when they are +100 but dont like them when they are -250. So now if they win, you lose $300. 

    Reply

    I don't understand why you like them when they are +100 but dont like them when they are -250. So now if they win, you lose $300. 

     
    updog
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:35 AM ET #6

    @Danny9999

     THIS

    Reply

    @Danny9999

     THIS

     
    nitmaster69
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:42 AM ET #7

    scared money don't make money...

    but if you're scared to lose money , put 1500 on chiefs -190 right now. if bengals beat the chiefs you win 500 net.

    if chiefs win,  you will win 750 from the game, and also have more clarity on who you need to hedge with after ravens game and pitt/clev MNF

    Reply

    scared money don't make money...

    but if you're scared to lose money , put 1500 on chiefs -190 right now. if bengals beat the chiefs you win 500 net.

    if chiefs win,  you will win 750 from the game, and also have more clarity on who you need to hedge with after ravens game and pitt/clev MNF

     
    nitmaster69
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:49 AM ET #8

    @nitmaster69

     actually in the second scenario if chiefs win, week 18 put 2k on the browns around a pk over bengals, you will net will about 500-700 

     

     

    these are the sequence of bets to lock in your equity since the only way you lose your futures bet is contingent on if bengals lose out.

    Reply

    @nitmaster69

     actually in the second scenario if chiefs win, week 18 put 2k on the browns around a pk over bengals, you will net will about 500-700 

     

     

    these are the sequence of bets to lock in your equity since the only way you lose your futures bet is contingent on if bengals lose out.

     
    BIGDTITLE
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 1:55 AM ET #9

    my opinion, if you had 2k to throw down on a future like this in the first place, then I'm struggling to understand why you would hedge out completely and not see it through?  did your circumstances change and you need a new kidney?  liver?  sex change?     not hating here, but this is a very odd post if you ask me. 

     

    GL peace_5

    Reply

    my opinion, if you had 2k to throw down on a future like this in the first place, then I'm struggling to understand why you would hedge out completely and not see it through?  did your circumstances change and you need a new kidney?  liver?  sex change?     not hating here, but this is a very odd post if you ask me. 

     

    GL peace_5

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:04 AM ET #10

    this is a complicated question.

    i would take much more time and homework to think about it, get up early and get to the book asap to hedge it 100% because time will run out!!

    Reply

    this is a complicated question.

    i would take much more time and homework to think about it, get up early and get to the book asap to hedge it 100% because time will run out!!

     
    lordbettington
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:08 AM ET #11

    Hedge at this point isn't a good Idea, if you are that worried about the 2k, you made too big of a bet.

    bengals are underdogs vs chiefs and in the lookahead line at browns is browns -1.5.  I think they could lose both, so do the books, judging by the lines.

    You should probably wait to hedge.  If they beat the chiefs, you win, if they lose and ravens lose to rams, ravens are done, so you can then hedge on the steelers and or browns.  If ravens win that would worst outcome, but if you wanted to bet them for a smaller amount on ml vs rams its like +220, then if they lose they are done. if they win then u can take some of that money and put it towards a hedge after.

    steelers winning would not be a miracle, they have a sb winning coach and qb, the pressure won't get to them, they have already beaten both the browns and the ravens, so winning out is not crazy.  that is the only bet left that has any value.   Bengals are a young team, they have never been in this spot, nobody knows if they choke or rise to the occasion.  

     

    Reply

    Hedge at this point isn't a good Idea, if you are that worried about the 2k, you made too big of a bet.

    bengals are underdogs vs chiefs and in the lookahead line at browns is browns -1.5.  I think they could lose both, so do the books, judging by the lines.

    You should probably wait to hedge.  If they beat the chiefs, you win, if they lose and ravens lose to rams, ravens are done, so you can then hedge on the steelers and or browns.  If ravens win that would worst outcome, but if you wanted to bet them for a smaller amount on ml vs rams its like +220, then if they lose they are done. if they win then u can take some of that money and put it towards a hedge after.

    steelers winning would not be a miracle, they have a sb winning coach and qb, the pressure won't get to them, they have already beaten both the browns and the ravens, so winning out is not crazy.  that is the only bet left that has any value.   Bengals are a young team, they have never been in this spot, nobody knows if they choke or rise to the occasion.  

     

     
    Action_Junkee
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:08 AM ET #12

    All great input and much appreciated. I can’t argue with anything said. I’m really overthinking it. Going to sleep on it

     

    peace_5

    Reply

    All great input and much appreciated. I can’t argue with anything said. I’m really overthinking it. Going to sleep on it

     

    peace_5

     
    lordbettington
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:10 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by nitmaster69:

    scared money don't make money... but if you're scared to lose money , put 1500 on chiefs -190 right now. if bengals beat the chiefs you win 500 net. if chiefs win,  you will win 750 from the game, and also have more clarity on who you need to hedge with after ravens game and pitt/clev MNF

    this is pretty good advice, think chiefs will win here

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by nitmaster69:

    scared money don't make money... but if you're scared to lose money , put 1500 on chiefs -190 right now. if bengals beat the chiefs you win 500 net. if chiefs win,  you will win 750 from the game, and also have more clarity on who you need to hedge with after ravens game and pitt/clev MNF

    this is pretty good advice, think chiefs will win here

     
    Action_Junkee
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:14 AM ET #14

    @lordbettington

     That’s what I was thinking. I could see it coming down to the last game. 

    Reply

    @lordbettington

     That’s what I was thinking. I could see it coming down to the last game. 

     
     
    Action_Junkee
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2022 - 2:17 AM ET #15

    @nitmaster69

     Great idea. I didn’t even think about that 

    Reply

    @nitmaster69

     Great idea. I didn’t even think about that 

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