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Posted: #51

@undermysac

 Yea when I said defense being healthy its relative of course. I meant when they've had some of their pieces back its a noticeable difference 

 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Pt margin matters, the info u posted proves it. You can't just pick out exception and say see they did it. All stats or methods have exceptions. But you should not make predictions based on exceptions,  you should use probabilities. The probabilities for the Bears winning the SB is very , very slim looking at your info.   And you picked 2 teams that won in a special era of surprise teams from the wild card round, that was an era never seen before or after that period. Again an exception.  The Bears may continue  to win in regular season and they may not  but they are very, very unlikely to do much in the playoffs.

 

 

yeah the point I was making was about using point differential as a capping tool for any game.    I just used SB teams to illustrate my point.

 

Another way to look at it…….Here are week 13 ATS winners and their point differentials, before the game, compared to their opponents

 

 

GBY -22

 

DAL -70

 

CIN -126

 

CHI -33

 

TBY +10

 

MIA +66

 

NYJ -42

 

CAR -180

 

JAX +153

 

SFO +78

 

HOU -51

 

SEA +138

 

BUF +48

 

LAC +120

 

DEN +125

 

NEP +162

 

So, teams that had a better point differential than their opponent were 9-7 ATS in week 13

 

Week 14 packers are +62 point differential relative to the bears, but I wouldn’t back the pack in this game  just for that reason

 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:

Is point differential that important?   here’s a list of SB winners reg season point differential    1966 Packers: 172 1967 Packers: 123 1968 Jets: 139 1969 Chiefs: 182 1970 Colts: 87 1971 Cowboys: 184 1972 Dolphins: 214 1973 Dolphins: 193 1974 Steelers: 116 1975 Steelers: 211 1976 Raiders: 113 1977 Cowboys: 133 1978 Steelers: 161 1979 Steelers: 154 1980 Raiders: 58 1981 49ers: 107 1982 Redskins: 62 1983 Raiders: 104 1984 49ers: 248 1985 Bears: 258 1986 Giants: 135 1987 Redskins: 94 1988 49ers: 75 1989 49ers: 189 1990 Giants: 124 1991 Redskins: 261 1992 Cowboys: 166 1993 Cowboys: 147 1994 49ers: 209 1995 Cowboys: 144 1996 Packers: 246 1997 Broncos: 185 1998 Broncos: 192 1999 Rams: 284 2000 Ravens: 168 2001 Patriots: 99 2002 Buccaneers: 150 2003 Patriots: 110 2004 Patriots: 177 2005 Steelers: 131 2006 Colts: 67 2007 Giants: 22 2008 Steelers: 124 2009 Saints: 169 2010 Packers: 148 2011 Giants: -6 2012 Ravens: 54 2013 Seahawks: 186 2014 Patriots: 155 2015 Broncos: 59 2016 Patriots: 191 2017 Eagles: 162 2018 Patriots: 111 2019 Chiefs: 143 2020 Buccaneers: 137 2021 Rams: 88 2022 Chiefs: 127 2023 Chiefs: 77 2024 Eagles: 160   The 2007 undefeated Patriots were +315 yet they lost to the Giants who were only +22 for the reg season   The 2011 Patriots were +171 but lost to the Giants who were -6 for the reg season

Thanks for all of your time and effort.

 
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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by Riderx:

Umm...the Bears as a road dog after gaining more than 200 RY since the '02 re-align: team=Bears and AD and p:RY>200 and season>=2002 1-10 s/u & 1-10 ats the only s/u & ats win in '22 at NE on MNF & the Bears were coming off a s/u loss at home

Nice query.

 
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Posted: #55

@DogbiteWilliams

peace_5

actually I made some mistakes in post #52

list should read

GBY -22

 

DAL -70

 

CIN -126

 

CHI -33

 

ARZ -10

 

NOS -66

 

NYJ -42

 

CAR -180

 

JAX +153

 

SFO +78

 

HOU -51

 

SEA +138

 

BUF +48

 

LAC +120

 

WAS -125

 

NEP +162


so…..the teams with the higher season point differential than their opponents were 6-10 ATS in week 13 

 
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Posted: #56

Bears WR Rome Odunze hasn't practiced all week. 

 
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Posted: #57

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-analysis/75883/when-the-packers-added-a-dt-they-didnt-look-for-a-devonte-wyatt-replacement-jordon-riley

 
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Posted: #58

Bears have been mentioned in the Bible 14 times.

Packers, 0 times.

How's that for a score prediction?

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Bears have been mentioned in the Bible 14 times. Packers, 0 times. How's that for a score prediction?

I can't bet against the Bible, im in peace_5

Sucks Odunze is out. I heard mumblings though so I jumped on Burden o29.5. Its not 39.5 and I'll get my Odunze bet back so im happy 

 
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Posted: #60

@Yanasaur

 LETS GO BUFFALO!

 
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Posted: #61

@bulubulu

 Agreed. Im a buffalonian! Love my team but I dont they're going anywhere this year

 
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Posted: #62

season>2013 and D and DIV and p:line>5 and p:W and line>5 and total>41

 

 

Dog is 4-22 ATS 

 

0-26 SU

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

season>2013 and D and DIV and p:line>5 and p:W and line>5 and total>41     Dog is 4-22 ATS    0-26 SU

Can you translate that to English for me? Thanks

 
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Posted: #64

season>2013 and D and DIV and p:line>5 and p:W and line>5 and total>41

 

Since and including 2014 

after a dog win when that dog win line was +5 or more 

This weeks matchup is a Division game 

 

The current week line is +5 or more and the same for the total at least 41 or more. 

 

after a big lined win, this is a big division game.  the line is elevated once again over 3. A very strong majority of these teams don’t execute.

After last weeks big win, the line should be closer to 0 and it’s not. Add all this up and the poor history against the Packers:

 

at a minimum this should be a pass.  

This is good chance at a packers win and cover and an even better chance with any sort of teaser. 

 

 

 

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #65

@spottie2935

 I had about half of it correct in my head. Thanks for clarifying 

peace_5

 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Bears WR Rome Odunze hasn't practiced all week.

He's been officially ruled out. 

He leads the Bears in...

Targets(90), next best is DJ Moore with 63.

Receptions (44)

Yards (661)

Reception TD's (6)

Yards per reception (15)

Receiving 1st downs (37), next best is DJ (24)

Rec yards per game (55.1)

 

 
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Posted: #67

QB comparison:

QBR: Williams #23(88.2), Love #5(104.3)

Comp %: Williams #37(58.1%) Love #13(67%)

INT %: Williams #10(1.3%), Love #4(0.8%)

TD%: Williams #24(4.3%), Love #12(5.3%)

NYPP: Williams #16(6.3), Love #6(7.1)

Adj/epa per play: Williams #22, Love #1

 
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Posted: #68

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/where-the-bears-can-attack-the-packers

Cool article from the dvoa guys. This will be the Bears only real chance. Have to run effectively and play keep away.

Ben Johnson's coaching ability will be put to the test offensively, especially with Rome Odunze out. 

 
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Posted: #69

GL peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #70

@undermysac

Great article describing a key matchup, thanks peace_5

as the old saying goes,

“if my 11 guys can push around your 11 guys, I will win”

the running game has been a big reason for the bears recent success, not their inefficient passing game

They’ve been averaging 180 rush yds in the last 8 games

The running game usually travels well and might help keep the game close

OTOH……the packers have a more mature offense, with a QB + HC who have been there for a few years and enjoyed some successes.  This is a big advantage vs a mediocre bears D line.

intriguing matchup, I’m leaning to packers right now

 
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Posted: #71

@Biscuit

 peace_5

On the dvoa podcast, Aaron Schatz said that his #'s have the spread exactly at 6.5, so no play on either side for him.

Maybe the line isn't as interesting as it was at open. After talking about and looking at a game for a whole week, did anything change for anyone?

 
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Posted: #72

@undermysac

 Wind should not be a factor so Caleb will not have that to deal with.

One way to look at it is would you rather have GB-5 or CHI +7 peace_5

 
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Posted: #73

UNDER the total an_light

 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

@undermysac  Wind should not be a factor so Caleb will not have that to deal with. One way to look at it is would you rather have GB-5 or CHI +7

Honestly, I'd take both those lines and hope for the best

peace_5

 
 
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Posted: #75

@undermysac

 

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22: @undermysac  Wind should not be a factor so Caleb will not have that to deal with. One way to look at it is would you rather have GB-5 or CHI +7 Honestly, I'd take both those lines and hope for the best

Exactly where I am peace_5

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