Interesting Line

Did you watch the game? It was irrevocably a dominant showing and nearly one sided.

So we get the Bears "easy schedule" argument. We get the "point differential" argument. The "close wins" argument. 

Now they beat an 8-3 team and it wasn't they're doing, but the Eagles just sucked. 

What else should the Bears do besides win to gain any respect?

Stopping Jordan Love would be the #1 priority imo, dude has been playing very well. Can they?

@undermysac

 forgot to mention its an alternate spread. 3pt teaser with Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, Lions

Is point differential that important?

here’s a list of SB winners reg season point differential 

1966 Packers: 172

1967 Packers: 123

1968 Jets: 139

1969 Chiefs: 182

1970 Colts: 87

1971 Cowboys: 184

1972 Dolphins: 214

1973 Dolphins: 193

1974 Steelers: 116

1975 Steelers: 211

1976 Raiders: 113

1977 Cowboys: 133

1978 Steelers: 161

1979 Steelers: 154

1980 Raiders: 58

1981 49ers: 107

1982 Redskins: 62

1983 Raiders: 104

1984 49ers: 248

1985 Bears: 258

1986 Giants: 135

1987 Redskins: 94

1988 49ers: 75

1989 49ers: 189

1990 Giants: 124

1991 Redskins: 261

1992 Cowboys: 166

1993 Cowboys: 147

1994 49ers: 209

1995 Cowboys: 144

1996 Packers: 246

1997 Broncos: 185

1998 Broncos: 192

1999 Rams: 284

2000 Ravens: 168

2001 Patriots: 99

2002 Buccaneers: 150

2003 Patriots: 110

2004 Patriots: 177

2005 Steelers: 131

2006 Colts: 67

2007 Giants: 22

2008 Steelers: 124

2009 Saints: 169

2010 Packers: 148

2011 Giants: -6

2012 Ravens: 54

2013 Seahawks: 186

2014 Patriots: 155

2015 Broncos: 59

2016 Patriots: 191

2017 Eagles: 162

2018 Patriots: 111

2019 Chiefs: 143

2020 Buccaneers: 137

2021 Rams: 88

2022 Chiefs: 127

2023 Chiefs: 77

2024 Eagles: 160

The 2007 undefeated Patriots were +315 yet they lost to the Giants who were only +22 for the reg season

The 2011 Patriots were +171 but lost to the Giants who were -6 for the reg season

@Biscuit

 Nice dig! 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/ben-johnson-reacts-to-viral-clip-of-his-shirtless-postgame-speech-to-bears/ar-AA1RvIR8?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgdhpruby&pc=U531&cvid=692e37c8d2ec47efa595b401b4ec2d94&ei=7

@ABooksNightmare

 I was right there with you about Caleb, everything you send since his college days. Plus him skipping out on the combine and refusing a physical, he had a lot of red flags.

It's good to see him learning and doing a lot of good things in year 2. For all his scrambling I haven't seen him get hit hard yet. Whether it's sliding or running out of bounds he's not taking punishment. 

The most recent thing I've seen from him is putting touch on passes that require it. He threw the ball 100 mph for the most part last year and the early part of this season. 

We'll see if he stays on track.

Another thing I've read this morning was that the Bears have targeted their TE's 10 more times this year than all of last year. The rate has gone up from 5 targets per game to 6.7. It was one of my major criticisms from Caleb last year.

@Biscuit

 Nice work 

I'm not sure how much pt diff and other stuff matters that much or not anymore to be honest. We've all been doing this shit for so long who knows really. 

When it comes to understanding a Vegas line we can get there multiple ways. I can get there almost every time with different methods. And at the end of the day where does it really get us? It's still really hard to pick the su winner in the nfl, no games are a gimme imo.

So, for getting to a #, for instance, I'll look at the last 5 games for both teams trying to get the most recent form of a team.

Bears pt diff last 5 is +23, they went 5-0. Packers is +35, they went 3-2. The average dvoa rating of their last 5 opponents is Bears #20.6, Packers #18.2, a last 5 sos of sorts.

Packers -6.5 still looks like a line the books should lay in that regard. 

Vs common opponents the Bears are 7-2, the Packers are 7-1-1.

What are the chances that the Bears cover, but lose? Nfl history tells us about 17% chance.

I have no clue what will happen. Although I'll be extremely looking forward to this game. It's gonna be huge for both teams with a lot on the line.

@undermysac

 Yes I did see that at the beginning of the year he was throwing heaters on everything and its nice watching him get that touch pass down. They are really doing well scheming the TEs too. Loveland is a potent weapon now. Teams the last few weeks have been taking Odunze out, but he should start to get more involved again now that they have to worry about the TE. 

And yea that Philly victory was IMPRESSIVE. They completely dominated start to finish against a really tough defense. To say it wasnt impressive is crazy. You can talk about the eagles motivation issues and everything else but bottom line is that is a real defense and Chicago bullied them for 60 mins

Bump.

This game will be talked about here, all the way till Sunday 

they're begging for Chicago money obviously.  They could have made it 4.5 and still got it imo.

I like Packers -6.5 Anything under 7 is safe imo. Nice discussion by the way.

Haven't done any cappin' on this game but how many times have you seen a 9-3 team getting more than 4pts?  Especially vs any team with less than 10 wins?  I'll bet it's rare.  Anyways, just this year the Bears were on a 4-game win streak & just off a game they had less than 200 PY but more than 200 RY.  What happened next?  They got blown out at Balt.

I give Chicago much respect for their season so far but have a feelin' they're running into a buzzsaw this weekend as the Packers have already gone thru turbulence & righted the ship.  Just a thought...

@Riderx

 Great point, kind of my thoughts, will be interesting to see. 

@undermysac

 Are Bears getting their linebackers back for this game? Also what is the status of their secondary? I know when the defense has all been healthy they've looked far far better. 

Another interesting line - they posted Rome Odunze at only 33.5. I went ahead and banged the over on that. Hes had a couple down games, but 35.5 is not a lot to ask for and if he doesnt have those down games there's no way we get a number this low.

From whom?  The public is already overwhelmingly on Chicago.

At the market maker books they opened it at +5 Sunday night and everyone I know took Green Bay.  I bet them at -5 and -5.5.

It went very quickly to +6.5 and even hit +7 before coming back down to +6.5.

This seems to be the correct number per the market right now.

Umm...the Bears as a road dog after gaining more than 200 RY since the '02 re-align:

team=Bears and AD and p:RY>200 and season>=2002

1-10 s/u & 1-10 ats

the only s/u & ats win in '22 at NE on MNF & the Bears were coming off a s/u loss at home

Good stuff Rider, I like it!

@Yanasaur

Tremaine Edmunds still on IR.

TJ Edwards questionable, returning to practice today after missing the last 4 games with a broken hand.

Noah Sewell questionable I think, don't know if he practiced or not.

The Bears won't release an official injury report till tomorrow. 

As for the linebackers that have filled in, they've played great. Demarco Jackson scoring a 75 pff grade in 2 starts or 158 snaps. Amen Ogbongbemiga scoring a 59.2 in 1 start, only 70 snaps all year.

The Bears have been primarily using Nickel and Dime defenses with all the LB injuries. CJ Garner Johnson has been playing in the box a lot. Even though listed as a safety, he's been a linebacker at times. Kyler Gordon came back last week vs Philly, he's their Nickel back. Dennis Allen has been getting creative. 

The part where you said "when the defense has been healthy they looked far better" I really don't know when that was. When they were healthy in the first half of the year, they kinda sucked.

I think that their d line is still their weakness. Although, I have been seeing Montez Sweat show up more often. He was a ghost for most part of the year. Also, Grady Jarrett is starting to make plays. A few weeks ago if you asked me about him I'd tell you he was a terrible signing. 

I'm a fan of Austin Booker. He's an unknown guy for most folks. Dude has balled since being on the shelf to start the season. I think he missed the first 7 weeks. He's still a young and raw player and isn't a 3 down guy yet.

Overall it's a difficult unit to judge. I don't think that they are really great, nor do I think that they are terrible. I think that they sacrifice a lot of ypp for opportunities to take the ball away, which they've done more than anyone. Turnovers are crucial in football. 

I think that Jordan Love protects the ball well, sporting the 4th lowest interception % in the league at 0.8%. But so does Hurts at 0.5% and they got him once last week.

The Bears secondary is by far their best unit.

If I were the Packers I would spoon feed Josh Jacobs. And give Emanuel Wilson more than 4 carries as well. That dude is a bruiser and his his legs never quit.

I have to think, considering what has transpired (the power of recency bias), that the Bears are getting the lions' share of the money in this one. Perhaps there will be some regression to the mean for the Bears? Yeah, that line is whack and something is rotten in Denmark and in the hallowed halls of the American gambling industry. 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRydqQjDukL/?igsh=ODAxcDllN2F1Z2Q4

https://lombardiave.com/jayden-reed-closing-packers-return-bears-not-alone

@undermysac

After watching this video you posted Sac it even had me ripping off my shirt and charging into my bathroom door....sucks that it's a hollow core because now I'll have to get another one. 

Pt margin matters, the info u posted proves it.

You can't just pick out exception and say see they did it.

All stats or methods have exceptions. But you should not make predictions based on exceptions,  you should use probabilities.

The probabilities for the Bears winning the SB is very , very slim looking at your info.

And you picked 2 teams that won in a special era of surprise teams from the wild card round, that was an era never seen before or after that period.

Again an exception. 

The Bears may continue  to win in regular season and they may not  but they are very, very unlikely to do much in the playoffs.