Posted:
#76
pats gave up a league high 82% of tds on power runs on plays from less than 2 yds out
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I'm a Seahawks fan and...that was the right call.
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by podsox:
u say cliché everybody else says common sense. u cant run 30+ seconds off the clock and then alter your play calling because of it. the seahawks staff and russ Wilson gave the game away. no if, and, or buts
If anybody should have rushed or called timeout to stop the 30+ seconds from running off the clock, it was New England....
They needed to do that. Whether it altered their playcalling or not, they needed to play for the whole game.
Seriously, I'm really curious about what you would have done in that situation and what probabilities you had assigned.
Do you think I'm wrong on the 70 and 60 numbers?
What do you think were realistic numbers?
What would the numbers have been on 3rd and 4th after failed passes and runs respectively?
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Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by podsox:
pats gave up a league high 82% of tds on power runs on plays from less than 2 yds out
If that was true, why did anyone ever kick an extra point against them?
82% * 2 pts > 99% * 1 pt
Somehow, what you are saying implies the right move is to run for two points...every single time....Was every single extra point attempted against the Pats the worst call ever? If not, why not?
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Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by theIntrospect:
Pete Carroll is retarded.
Pete Carroll is retarded.
This poster is a troll.
Honestly, I think you guys are a little retarded. I believe Belichick got what Carroll was trying to do and the fact that they are the only two coaches that would play it that way says a little bit more about the 30 guys watching the game from home.
Doesn't it?
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
yea cuz teams are gonna go for 2 after every td. give your head a shake. get outta mommys basement If that was true, why did anyone ever kick an extra point against them?
82% * 2 pts > 99% * 1 pt
Somehow, what you are saying implies the right move is to run for two points...every single time....Was every single extra point attempted against the Pats the worst call ever? If not, why not?
not a savior
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Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
If that was true, why did anyone ever kick an extra point against them?
82% * 2 pts > 99% * 1 pt
Somehow, what you are saying implies the right move is to run for two points...every single time....Was every single extra point attempted against the Pats the worst call ever? If not, why not?
because u never leave pts off the board in a game. an extra pt is a gimme and a completely different situation. the fact that u r even comparing the 2 is embarrassing. goodnight
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Posted:
#84
Quote Originally Posted by rlovsin17:
yea cuz teams are gonna go for 2 after every td. give your head a shake. get outta mommys basement
yea cuz teams are gonna go for 2 after every td. give your head a shake. get outta mommys basement
Why is it different? All of the talk is acting as if passing was an absurd gamble while running was an almost absolute chance of success.
That isn't remotely true and I'm pretty sure you guys realize it.
The reason why they don't run for two all the time is that running has a fairly high likelihood of failure.
If Carroll had run unsuccessfully on 2nd, thrown an obvious pass on 3rd and run unsuccessfully again on 4th would you have declared his playcalling correct?
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Posted:
#85
Then I guess all the ex NFL players don't know ANYTHING about football because EVERYBODY is saying it was awful.The bottom line is the best team won the Super Bowl.How do u go wrong pounding Beast Mode? You don't.I know Pete Carroll is a great coach .He just came up a little short tonight.He made the wrong call ...Just own it bro.
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Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
Well said! 
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Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by podsox:
because u never leave pts off the board in a game. an extra pt is a gimme and a completely different situation. the fact that u r even comparing the 2 is embarrassing. goodnight
You're a gambler right? I assume so based on your presence here. If you walked into a casino and they had a special promotional roulette wheel set up where 82% of the slots were red. You had an 82% chance of winning $100 and an 18% chance of losing $100, you wouldn't take it?
And I'm the idiot? I sense you must lose a lot.
You really have just memorized a bunch of cliches haven't you?
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Posted:
#88
I am a 49'ers fan and was rooting for Seattle to lose, and I also had a straight up bet on New England as well as a teaser of New England plus 9, so I wanted them to win the game for both personal and financial reasons.
When I saw Wilson go back to pass, I thought this was so great for the Pats because an incomplete pass would stop the clock and then the Pats could use their 2 timeouts to have at least a miracle shot of getting a field goal with probably 15 seconds left. I cannot believe Seattle did a pass. I was so thrilled when the ball was intercepted.
For me, this is what I would have done if I was Pete: Run it on 2nd down. Most likely you get in with Lynch. If not, call your timeout with probably 20 seconds left in the game. Run it again on 3rd down. If you don't get in again, you will still have about 3-5 seconds to try one more run on 4th down for the game.
When I saw Wilson go back to pass, I thought this was so great for the Pats because an incomplete pass would stop the clock and then the Pats could use their 2 timeouts to have at least a miracle shot of getting a field goal with probably 15 seconds left. I cannot believe Seattle did a pass. I was so thrilled when the ball was intercepted.
For me, this is what I would have done if I was Pete: Run it on 2nd down. Most likely you get in with Lynch. If not, call your timeout with probably 20 seconds left in the game. Run it again on 3rd down. If you don't get in again, you will still have about 3-5 seconds to try one more run on 4th down for the game.
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Posted:
#90
As for the 2 pointer, more teams don't try it more often because most coaches are risk averse. They don't want to be criticized when they lose by a point or when it's not successful. But in truth, you are more likely to win games if you went for every 2 pointer.
Just like you are more likely to win games if you went for it on every 4th down, but that's another discussion.
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Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:
Then I guess all the ex NFL players don't know ANYTHING about football because EVERYBODY is saying it was awful.The bottom line is the best team won the Super Bowl.How do u go wrong pounding Beast Mode? You don't.I know Pete Carroll is a great coach .He just came up a little short tonight.He made the wrong call ...Just own it bro.
Then I guess all the ex NFL players don't know ANYTHING about football because EVERYBODY is saying it was awful.The bottom line is the best team won the Super Bowl.How do u go wrong pounding Beast Mode? You don't.I know Pete Carroll is a great coach .He just came up a little short tonight.He made the wrong call ...Just own it bro.
To be honest, I don't really think the announcers and ex-players know all that much about probability. Its one thing to know how to throw a spiral or make a tackle, its another thing entirely to correctly do the math that is required for good strategy.
Those same idiots were saying Carroll made a mistake not kicking a FG in the first half where 6 seconds was more than enough time to get off one more shot at the end zone.
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
lynch had a 5yd per carry avg in the playoffs. cant find any stats but does anyone know if he had any carries for negative yards? if he didn't then id say not giving him the ball was the wrong move sir.
Why is it different? All of the talk is acting as if passing was an absurd gamble while running was an almost absolute chance of success.
That isn't remotely true and I'm pretty sure you guys realize it.
The reason why they don't run for two all the time is that running has a fairly high likelihood of failure.
If Carroll had run unsuccessfully on 2nd, thrown an obvious pass on 3rd and run unsuccessfully again on 4th would you have declared his playcalling correct?
not a savior
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by tracy1980:
I am a 49'ers fan and was rooting for Seattle to lose, and I also had a straight up bet on New England as well as a teaser of New England plus 9, so I wanted them to win the game for both personal and financial reasons.
When I saw Wilson go back to pass, I thought this was so great for the Pats because an incomplete pass would stop the clock and then the Pats could use their 2 timeouts to have at least a miracle shot of getting a field goal with probably 15 seconds left. I cannot believe Seattle did a pass. I was so thrilled when the ball was intercepted.
For me, this is what I would have done if I was Pete: Run it on 2nd down. Most likely you get in with Lynch. If not, call your timeout with probably 20 seconds left in the game. Run it again on 3rd down. If you don't get in again, you will still have about 3-5 seconds to try one more run on 4th down for the game.
I am a 49'ers fan and was rooting for Seattle to lose, and I also had a straight up bet on New England as well as a teaser of New England plus 9, so I wanted them to win the game for both personal and financial reasons.
When I saw Wilson go back to pass, I thought this was so great for the Pats because an incomplete pass would stop the clock and then the Pats could use their 2 timeouts to have at least a miracle shot of getting a field goal with probably 15 seconds left. I cannot believe Seattle did a pass. I was so thrilled when the ball was intercepted.
For me, this is what I would have done if I was Pete: Run it on 2nd down. Most likely you get in with Lynch. If not, call your timeout with probably 20 seconds left in the game. Run it again on 3rd down. If you don't get in again, you will still have about 3-5 seconds to try one more run on 4th down for the game.
You might or might not have gotten the fourth down play off. If they didn't get the play off and the Seahawks run out of time without even getting a fourth shot, does everybody compliment Pete on such great playcalling.
Probably not.
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Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
Sorry, but all those people that are saying it was the worst call ever don't understand anything about football.
If he runs it and it doesn't go in....then what?
You call timeout and you are forced to throw on 3rd down or you don't get a fourth down. The Patriots know that and can defend against a pass. Sack and the game is over.
Throw it on second and you have 3 strong chances with the Patriots forced to defend run or pass on each.
The right call doesn't always work. I think their win probability was higher this way. At the time, I was thinking please don't run it here.
This is one of the best crafted trolls I have ever seen.
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Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by Gabbo:
As for the 2 pointer, more teams don't try it more often because most coaches are risk averse. They don't want to be criticized when they lose by a point or when it's not successful. But in truth, you are more likely to win games if you went for every 2 pointer.
As for the 2 pointer, more teams don't try it more often because most coaches are risk averse. They don't want to be criticized when they lose by a point or when it's not successful. But in truth, you are more likely to win games if you went for every 2 pointer.
Just like you are more likely to win games if you went for it on every 4th down, but that's another discussion.
Exactly.
I brought up the 2 point thing for two reasons. 1) To point out that 82% was a ridiculously high number. 2) To point out that most coaches are more about minimizing risk of disaster on this play than they are about maximizing overall win probability. This logic is flawed. 3) To allude without saying directly that on very similar situations where it is one or done without the obvious 3rd/4th benefits of this game, most coaches still pass. Why?
Put the pieces together and you see that passing was better in this situation...or at the very least, it was a very close call.
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Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by tallguyindc:
So everytime a run is 4 yards, that guarantees the next run will be at least 2? And I'm the one that doesn't know what he is talking about?
I just watched the replay of the first down run There was a full freaking minute on the clock when he went down at the 1. Seattle just punched the pats in the gut with the circus catch. You have a timeout in your pocket you have time to run it twice without burning that timeout. You hurry to the line without substitutions and punch it down their throat!!!!!!!!!! End of story. they wasted a full 30 seconds dikken around just to throw a senseless interception. 
But it worked out for me cuz I had the pats -1
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