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I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.

 
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Posted: #102
Guys is really this simply the lines moves for reasons such as new news affecting players, injuries, weather, etc...

If none of these are in play then the line is moving because of the draw on one side. ie lots of bets coming in on one side.

It's very similar to the stock market. Just like a stock goes up when more and more people buy into it. It goes down when the market is selling. The line movement is no different. The books are giving you the current market price on that given team at this moment. 

Market (or Public) Perception has much to do with it just like the stock market. 

So obviously given the conditions the market perception is very high on KC lately. 
 
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Posted: #103
LOL such a funny thread. So many crazy insane things said.
 
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Posted: #104
Books Profit off have a 50/50 split.. 50 percent on one team and 50 percent on the other. The line moves to help get the numbers to just that.
 
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Posted: #105
books don't move the lines for no reason.  they would be exposed to be middled.  for instance.  early in the week kc was +2.5.  this morn they were -2.5.  if it is a 1 or 2 pt game either way, the books would get crushed on the middle.  sharps monitor the lines and pick their entry point.  imo, the sharps pounded kc last night and this morn which pushed kc into the fav.  public is probably buying indi now and settling the line to a pick em.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by bettingaddict:

From my experience in betting line movement means a lot.
Off course it is sport and you can expect any outcome but when i see line dropping and considering my self to bet on it it is one good sign to take bet...of course while there is till some value.
I am not covering NFL at all but probably all value was on Chiefs as many expecting coin toss game and Chiefs were dog.
I will go for under points as when it comes to playoffs/knockout faze in many sports  defence win games.

Line movement does mean a lot!!..go with the movement.

Yea Stanford 
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
You cussed at me and called me names. Also you want me to LOSE all my wagers. How is that judging someone? Both of those comments is the difference between me and you. You want me to LOSE all my games. Really?
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by EnglandPatriot:

It's not that the line movements mean nothing, it's about how people misread them. Line movements happen for 2 main reasons - highly unbalanced betting and team news. All the team news was already out before the line started moving on this game, which means the line movement is just down to the betting patterns. The betting patterns themselves don't influence the game in any way, so if you're letting other people's betting influence you, you're probably giving too much weight to other people's opinions


 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

Guys is really this simply the lines moves for reasons such as new news affecting players, injuries, weather, etc...

If none of these are in play then the line is moving because of the draw on one side. ie lots of bets coming in on one side.

It's very similar to the stock market. Just like a stock goes up when more and more people buy into it. It goes down when the market is selling. The line movement is no different. The books are giving you the current market price on that given team at this moment. 

Market (or Public) Perception has much to do with it just like the stock market. 

So obviously given the conditions the market perception is very high on KC lately. 

 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
Believe me, I won't lose the "big" one.
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

Over 5000 views and 86 posts later and I still haven't received any information I was potentially looking for. SMH

Only at Covers


Look, we can all agree that the lines move with the money. If you think there are fake line movements and "traps" set up by casinos, you are probably wrong. Most conspiracy theories are wrong.
So the late money is on the Chiefs and the books have moved the line according. The books must view the news on Chiefs D over riding the loss of the OT. 
I personally ( and this is my belief) look at a lot of info on where the public is. All my info points to the public being pretty split on this game. There are a lot of possibilities on why the line moved late to the Chiefs but to me, the most likely possibility is that is where the sharps were and they were hitting the Chefs hard.



Hope it helps.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

You cussed at me and called me names. Also you want me to LOSE all my wagers. How is that judging someone? Both of those comments is the difference between me and you. You want me to LOSE all my games. Really?

I couldn't care less about you or your wagers.  I was joking.  Lighten up.

You told me I was going to heII because of my language, like you are some Sunday School teacher!!  Again, I couldn't care less what you believe, or where you "think" I'm going.  




 
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Posted: #113
....of course, that doesn't make you any less arrogant.

 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by Illinoisboy2323:

Books Profit off have a 50/50 split.. 50 percent on one team and 50 percent on the other. The line moves to help get the numbers to just that.

Y'know when books make a HUGE profit?  When they get 60/40 action and the 40 side wins.  When they get 50/50 action, and a 50 side wins, then the book makes 5%.  When the 40 side wins, the book wins a whopping 26% (66-40). 

 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:


Look, we can all agree that the lines move with the money. If you think there are fake line movements and "traps" set up by casinos, you are probably wrong. Most conspiracy theories are wrong.
So the late money is on the Chiefs and the books have moved the line according. The books must view the news on Chiefs D over riding the loss of the OT. 
I personally ( and this is my belief) look at a lot of info on where the public is. All my info points to the public being pretty split on this game. There are a lot of possibilities on why the line moved late to the Chiefs but to me, the most likely possibility is that is where the sharps were and they were hitting the Chefs hard.



Hope it helps.

You've got it.

Cheers
 
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Posted: #116
and then Charles goes down and the world turns upside down
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by kmoney85:

Chiefs

KC: Coaching experience edge, QB experience edge, takeaways edge running game edge.

After a 9-0 start, the last few games of season are irrelevant IMO . They might have rested when Denver sealed up the division. Hali and Houston back is huge. 

REVENGE factor.

Why does everyone think Smith is garbage? He was doing well at SF before he got hurt. 

No 4th quarter HEROICS for Me Luck today. This is the playoffs!
 
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Posted: #118
Lots of Smart Money on those Chiefs.
 
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Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

So what you're saying is. When a LINE MOVES in a direction OF a team, TO TAKE THAT TEAM? Wow, I didn't realize how EASY gambling was.

In a word.....yes

 
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Posted: #120
Now do you understand the line movement????
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

In a word.....yes

How about the Okie St last night? Or the NE game last weekend. Lines moved those games not in favor of those teams and they LOST. NE started at -10, it ended up NE -7-5. NE won by 14. Same last night with Okie St. Explain that???
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
NO. Why do guys insist on one game. For every one game it worked. I can give you another when it didn't work. You people are only looking at it when it works. No one mentions the other times. Read this real slow. LAST NIGHT, OKLAHOMA ST. Last weekend, NE. Patriots were -10, it ended -7-5. NE blew them out. Why can't you guys comment on those games. Comment, COMMENT ON THOSE GAMES.
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
Make your little comment on Okie St and NE games. It didn't work then. So you guys won't make comments on those games.
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
USC started at -7, ended up -4.5 USC won by 25. Explain that? I see no one explaining other games.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

In a word.....yes

Explain USC, their bowl game, NE last weekend, and Okie St last night. You guys won't comment on those games.
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