Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:
It could be. Again, bottom line. NO ONE KNOWS.
So you think money is coming in on Indy and Vegas makes the line adjustment in THEIR favor?
I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
So you know for a 100% FACT that money is coming in on KC? So that's the reason for the line moving towards KC. Uh, Ok. Tell me for a 100% FACT, you know money is coming in on KC
That's quite absurd. Maybe in another sport when then the books have limited exposure they will move the line on air, but for an NFL playoff game they are not going to move the line in an unfavorable manner and create a larger liability for themselves. So you think they were getting so much IND action at -1.5 they wanted to move the line all the way to +1, increasing their liability? C'mon, man!
People need to remember, there are normally 16 games in an NFL week, minus 2-3 primetime games. So the whole betting public (sharps, squares, pros, joes.. everyone) gets to put their money down on 12+ games, which most likely will spread the money out. Now that same money (if not more, playoff hype) is consolidated into FOUR GAMES. They are definitely taking in more money on a per game basis than probably anytime in the season. So what happens when everyone likes one side? There's a garbage-ton of money creating a huge liability for them.
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
It could be. Again, bottom line. NO ONE KNOWS.
It could be. Again, bottom line. NO ONE KNOWS.
Sometimes, you can get a pretty good ballpark idea of what's going on if you just pay attention.
A few sportsbooks have stated the largest action of the weekend is on KC. In fact on Dec 31 one stated "So far, there is more money on the Chiefs, than the Colts, Saints & Eagles combined." There is no "public" to fade during the playoffs, since there is such a limited number of games.
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:
It means large betting syndicates have been betting KC. The same betting syndicates that bet the Clippers from +1 all the way to Clippers-3 last night. Clippers won and covered. Guess what the Chiefs are most likely to do?
Last week, Patriots started -10, game ended at Patriots -7-5. NE won by 14. Explain that??????? No, really, you started it. Explain this game?
It means large betting syndicates have been betting KC. The same betting syndicates that bet the Clippers from +1 all the way to Clippers-3 last night. Clippers won and covered. Guess what the Chiefs are most likely to do?
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
So you know for a 100% FACT that money is coming in on KC? So that's the reason for the line moving towards KC. Uh, Ok. Tell me for a 100% FACT, you know money is coming in on KC
So you know for a 100% FACT that money is coming in on KC? So that's the reason for the line moving towards KC. Uh, Ok. Tell me for a 100% FACT, you know money is coming in on KC
I know for 100% fact that more money has been wagered on KC than IND, just as much of a 100% fact that you think Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback. Do you know 100%? Of course not, but the probability is quite high. Obviously nothing in life is 100% except taxes and death, but sometimes you have to accept things that have such a high probability. You sound like you should hang out with HoldingXYZ. Did you wager on this game? Do you know for a fact Andrew Luck will even play? IS IT A FACT!? 100%!?
Posted:
#33
This is sports gambling. If you think anything is 100% you need to find a new hobby. Everything we do is based on probability, theory, and educated guesses using the best knowledge we have. Do I read every single line movement? Of course not. I do like to see how the line moves because sports is a market, just like everything else. I am stating there is more money on KC than on IND. You are assuming that is affecting the way I am going to bet. In this case, it does not. The playoffs are a whole different beast. As I mentioned, the single game dollar amounts are so much higher than that of normal games that things like this are somewhat expected.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
People will tell you the "LINE" is moving towards KC so that means money in COMING in on KC. Really???? Not necessarily. Not so fast. The money could be COMING in on Indy, Vegas is making adjustments. NO ONE KNOWS the reason for the movement. Just for the record, I'm taking Indy ML for a medium to large play for myself
People will tell you the "LINE" is moving towards KC so that means money in COMING in on KC. Really???? Not necessarily. Not so fast. The money could be COMING in on Indy, Vegas is making adjustments. NO ONE KNOWS the reason for the movement. Just for the record, I'm taking Indy ML for a medium to large play for myself
I agree. Anyone that has followed this will know it doesn't mean much since it's still a coin flip.
The books like to play games with the line. Anyone that has bet long enough should recognize that.
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
Read post #17. And death and taxes aren't a 100% fact. The people who are living when Jesus comes back won't ever die. Read that again. They won't have ever died. Pretty intelligent aren't I.
I know for 100% fact that more money has been wagered on KC than IND, just as much of a 100% fact that you think Alex Smith will be the starting quarterback. Do you know 100%? Of course not, but the probability is quite high. Obviously nothing in life is 100% except taxes and death, but sometimes you have to accept things that have such a high probability. You sound like you should hang out with HoldingXYZ. Did you wager on this game? Do you know for a fact Andrew Luck will even play? IS IT A FACT!? 100%!?
Posted:
#37
comparing line movement for other games is completely irrelevent. The money being wagered on NFL playoff games is probably 50-100x more than any other game on the board. Just as an example, (in my opnion) Someone could spread out $200k across an NBA game and get line movement, whereas for an NFL playoff game they would probably need closer to $1-2M to get any substantial line movement. That's my understanding of things, anyways.
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:
It means large betting syndicates have been betting KC. The same betting syndicates that bet the Clippers from +1 all the way to Clippers-3 last night. Clippers won and covered. Guess what the Chiefs are most likely to do?
It means large betting syndicates have been betting KC. The same betting syndicates that bet the Clippers from +1 all the way to Clippers-3 last night. Clippers won and covered. Guess what the Chiefs are most likely to do?
Oki state went from pick or +1 to -3. They lost. Is that the type of example you are using?
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:
Excellent. Finally someone who get's it. I may lose, but it has nothing to do with the "line movement". Indy to the bank for my reasons in post #17. And really. Who could argue those reasons???
I agree. Anyone that has followed this will know it doesn't mean much since it's still a coin flip.
The books like to play games with the line. Anyone that has bet long enough should recognize that.
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
Read post #17. And death and taxes aren't a 100% fact. The people who are living when Jesus comes back won't ever die. Read that again. They won't have ever died. Pretty intelligent aren't I.
Read post #17. And death and taxes aren't a 100% fact. The people who are living when Jesus comes back won't ever die. Read that again. They won't have ever died. Pretty intelligent aren't I.
I personally could careless who you bet. I was just discussing the line movement. But now that you think death is not 100%, we will just end the discussion here. Or maybe it will continue in another life. Good luck today. 
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
Excellent. Finally someone who get's it. I may lose, but it has nothing to do with the "line movement". Indy to the bank for my reasons in post #17. And really. Who could argue those reasons???
Excellent. Finally someone who get's it. I may lose, but it has nothing to do with the "line movement". Indy to the bank for my reasons in post #17. And really. Who could argue those reasons???
There's a place and time for everything including line movements. The question is if today is the time to go with it or against it.
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
Yes, I'm right. When Jesus comes back. The people who are living, the Christians that is, will never actually die.
I personally could careless who you bet. I was just discussing the line movement. But now that you think death is not 100%, we will just end the discussion here. Or maybe it will continue in another life. Good luck today.
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:
Indy opened as a favorite, I believe it was 2.5 then went to 1.5.
With Pro Bowl OT Eric Fisher OUT for KC why did line go down?
I expected the opposite. Any feedback would be appreciated
The big money has faded Indy the whole season nothing different here , it's been consistant .
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:
Yes, I'm right. When Jesus comes back. The people who are living, the Christians that is, will never actually die.
Yes, I'm right. When Jesus comes back. The people who are living, the Christians that is, will never actually die.
You won't believe when a sportsbook manager tells you there is more money on one side or the other, but you believe Jesus is going to come back and you will have eternal life? 
I now feel dumb for having the previous discussion with you.
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:
Then I guess myself along with 100 billion people will be wrong then.
You won't believe when a sportsbook manager tells you there is more money on one side or the other, but you believe Jesus is going to come back and you will have eternal life?
I now feel dumb for having the previous discussion with you.
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:
Indy opened as a favorite, I believe it was 2.5 then went to 1.5.
With Pro Bowl OT Eric Fisher OUT for KC why did line go down?
I expected the opposite. Any feedback would be appreciated
Indy is a team that the big money has faded this whole season for whatever reason , the line movement here is consistant with this , and that's it .
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