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I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC

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Posts: 153

LuckyLukas

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 249

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:48 AM ET #51

fade the line movement..week 17...vikings -3 to +1...won by 1; chargers -9.5 to -14.5..won in OT..barely; cardinals +2 to -3..lost by 3; OK State +1 to -3..lost by 7; Ohio State -2 to -3 lost by 5; Alabama -15 to -17..lost; Wizards -3 to -4.5 lost, Jazz +4 to +3 lost; and so on...

fruit20

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 11059

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:48 AM ET #52

charlielo55

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 2845

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:48 AM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

So what you're saying is. When a LINE MOVES in a direction OF a team, TO TAKE THAT TEAM? Wow, I didn't realize how EASY gambling was.

I'm not referring to small moves, I usually fade those, that's the squares moving the lines, but Yes, when a line gets steamed jump on it and you'll be very successfull over a body of work.

meatwhistle

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5372

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:49 AM ET #54

Go opposite the move and enjoy. Take COLTS

just like I did yesterday against OK ST

theangryginger

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 34

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 10:58 AM ET #55

Why does anyone even like kc anyway?? They're 1-5 against playoff teams (only beating the eagles), went out 2-5 in their last 7 and already got crushed at home by the colts... Colts are 4-1 vs playoff teams beating KC, Seattle, 49's, Denver, and ended the season 5-2 in the last seven... Indy has home field advantage, has more momentum and has beaten much better teams. I am a die hard colts fan so obviously I could just be being ignorant but I would really like someone to explain this one to me.

tjohnsont

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 5761

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:01 AM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by theangryginger:

Why does anyone even like kc anyway?? They're 1-5 against playoff teams (only beating the eagles), went out 2-5 in their last 7 and already got crushed at home by the colts... Colts are 4-1 vs playoff teams beating KC, Seattle, 49's, Denver, and ended the season 5-2 in the last seven... Indy has home field advantage, has more momentum and has beaten much better teams. I am a die hard colts fan so obviously I could just be being ignorant but I would really like someone to explain this one to me.

Some things most of us don't have the ability/knowledge to explain. And so that is why we are Squares.....

joefromdiego

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 14

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:07 AM ET #57

a few factors KC is for one finally healthy, KC is essentially coming off a bye where Reid is something like 13-2, KC has the better players, and I trust Reid more than I do Pagano.

T-One

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2000

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:13 AM ET #58

It like beating a dead horse in here

Crashdavis565

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 15772

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:17 AM ET #59

The Chiefs are a better team, that is the long and short of it.

When it gets to playoff time, take all the cool aerial stuff and throw it out the window.

Who can run the ball and who can stop the run?

Figure that out and you have the winner.

Chiefs win, easy today.

kimoinsd808

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 6532

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:27 AM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

Last week, Patriots started -10, game ended at Patriots -7-5. NE won by 14. Explain that??????? No, really, you started it. Explain this game?

What's there to explain? The Sharps grabbed the double digit points like they most often do in the NFL but the Patriots covered anyway.

Bitcoin, not crypto.

degengambler34

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 3661

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:29 AM ET #61

This threads so ridiculous. It's very likely that the books moved the line because there was more money coming in on kc, is that 100%? No.

IT's also possible that with the news that houston and bowe are playing the books moved the line so they could try to snatch up some last minute indy action to balance their liability. Is that 100% ? No.

Sharps are wrong almost as much as joe public. Would i rather be on the sharp side generally, sure, but you guys have to realize sharps are wrong a ton also. So pick a side you like and try to get your best number.

kimoinsd808

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 6532

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:31 AM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Please don't use the word Square if you don't know it's definition.

What's your definition.

Bitcoin, not crypto.

saigonbynight

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 8681

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:32 AM ET #63

But ok +1 to -3 and lost su to MO

playboys_plays

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 17

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:36 AM ET #64

line movement tells you where the money is going frank.indy opened at -1 than quickly went to -2.5 telling you early money on the colts, then towards game time the money from the public went heavy on the chiefs putting the line at indy +1.5...so basically the public is all over the chiefs since they went from +1 underdogs to being -1.5 favorites! but how often is the public right? hope this helps frank good luck

theangryginger

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 34

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:42 AM ET #65

Alright well I will enjoy getting on here when the games over and see who still has faith in KC... in the meantime, off to Indy!! GO COLTS and BOL to everyone

mbialowas

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 4681

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:44 AM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

Indy opened as a favorite, I believe it was 2.5 then went to 1.5.

With Pro Bowl OT Eric Fisher OUT for KC why did line go down?

I expected the opposite. Any feedback would be appreciated

Looks like it's a trap.

inthetank

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1193

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 11:52 AM ET #67

Holy hell!!!!....KC NOW -3 at my place!...That's a big move guys!...THOUGHTS????

tjohnsont

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 5761

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 12:16 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by kimoinsd808:

What's your definition.

What makes it Square if a person gets KC at -3 and wins his bet????

slick15

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 22711

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 12:23 PM ET #69

Quote Originally Posted by playboys_plays:

line movement tells you where the money is going frank.indy opened at -1 than quickly went to -2.5 telling you early money on the colts, then towards game time the money from the public went heavy on the chiefs putting the line at indy +1.5...so basically the public is all over the chiefs since they went from +1 underdogs to being -1.5 favorites! but how often is the public right? hope this helps frank good luck

Indy never opened up at -1.....They opened up at -2.5

camby700

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 34182

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 12:28 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

The Chiefs are a better team, that is the long and short of it.

When it gets to playoff time, take all the cool aerial stuff and throw it out the window.

Who can run the ball and who can stop the run?

Figure that out and you have the winner.

Chiefs win, easy today.

Wiessen

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 477

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 12:33 PM ET #71

KANSAS at HOME vs INDIANA on WEEK 16 DEC 22/13.:

KANSAS - 7 1/2

INDIANA 47 TT

RESULT was INDIANA 23

KANSAS 7

??????????????????????????????????GOOD LUCK TO ALL

searider72

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 65

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 1:01 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

That's quite absurd. Maybe in another sport when then the books have limited exposure they will move the line on air, but for an NFL playoff game they are not going to move the line in an unfavorable manner and create a larger liability for themselves. So you think they were getting so much IND action at -1.5 they wanted to move the line all the way to +1, increasing their liability? C'mon, man!

People need to remember, there are normally 16 games in an NFL week, minus 2-3 primetime games. So the whole betting public (sharps, squares, pros, joes.. everyone) gets to put their money down on 12+ games, which most likely will spread the money out. Now that same money (if not more, playoff hype) is consolidated into FOUR GAMES. They are definitely taking in more money on a per game basis than probably anytime in the season. So what happens when everyone likes one side? There's a garbage-ton of money creating a huge liability for them.

Money lines moves only tells you where the money is being bet and not necessarily the winners. Last night Ok St went from +1 to -2 and lost 31 - 41.

Valtos

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 441

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 1:09 PM ET #73

Right?

and they have 9 wins against teams with losing records...........

Don't fall for that crap!

Indy LARGE!

Good luck to you all!

Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!!!

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jan. 4, 2014 - 1:26 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

Those "Betting syndicates" have no where near enough money to move an NFL playoff game line as much as a normal NBA line. NFL is most wagered on sport, and playoffs are even bigger.

They don't have enough money when compared to the public but books react to max bets from syndicates by adjusting the line against them, or else they'd keep eating up that line with max bets and different runners.

It would only be a matter of time before the syndicates, or multiple syndicates would put the books on the 'wrong side' of a bet, that is the public (square) side.