NFL Record: 5-6
I posted this in another thread and at the time of post the line was Giants -3 -110. Now today's games are over, the public is looking to the weekend having pounded the Lions, Cowboys and possibly the Niners (and they are down obviously) and are looking to get their money back.
Their greasy ham hock fingers will be all over this one and it won't be for supporting Jacksonville.
Giants are a nationally public team so you always pay a premium on their line and the public loves to fade the losers. Jags are big-time losers at the very bottom of the barrel. The Jags/Giants are a bad combination, despite the Giants 6 game losing streak.
-3 will not last as I already see -3 -120 in some places as the public money slowly creeps in to recoup losses. My bet is in so it's for everyone who wants to risk waiting. -3 even money is still available right now in many places. (This line opened at 2.5 which BEGS for the Giants money and I say unequivocally, "I DO NOT CARE." There are some games in some spots I will not back off of due to 'fishy lines' and public support.)
Here are the rapid-fire points:
1) With regard to this statement first:
and now after a truly heartbreaking loss, there nothing left at all. Nothing. Zero hope.
After that game I was REALLY interested in the Giants and then came the Niners. The line was short at +4. In the end, a terrific Beckham catch on the 5 yard line middled the Giants where they basically had to go for it on all 4 downs, screwing bettors who took the 4 if they didn't punch it in. Three of the worst play calls later (3 fades), the Giants fail to cover. Even at that, Eli threw 5 int's and they still almost covered (and actually almost won) which is remarkable.
But in reality, that game is a huge moose. And I'm not saying that because I posted it. I'm saying it because looking at the Giants ATS (4-7) is actually better than what it is. Much closer to .500 if not over .500 if not for 1 or 2 plays or fumbles that go their way.
I know this seems like I'm making excuses for the Giants but the Giants do one thing FAR BETTER the Jets don't: they tend to fix, or better remedy their previous week's issues.
So after giving up 350+ to SEA. They give up 150ish and then 110ish to the Niners and Cowboys respectively (and remember how run heavy the Cowboys are). And this is with a very poor run defense.
After throwing 5 INT's against SF, Eli threw 1 INT and even that was on a tipped pass by his own receiver.
Rushing game? Improved every game from SEA to SF to Dallas. Not much to speak of but it will be better as Jennings gets to full strength and he has shown flashes as well.
These past three games are against excellent NFC teams! All three are no pushovers and each can represent the NFC in the Super Bowl! (if of course, SF finds a way to right the ship more).
The point: The Giants HAVE NOT been laying down in what was a lost season (and really they knew it) because they come to play every Sunday. Because this might be Coughlin's last season. Because they are not the Jets. Because they lost their season at 0-6 last year, could have sleepwalked into a top pick (got a fantastic first rounder anyhow) but ended 7-9. 7-9 meant nothing but 7-9. But they still played out the string by playing hard.
They play. The noise from the media is just noise.
2) Look at the Giants this season:
Look at the past 6 losses:
@Philly L
@Dallas L
Colts L
@Seattle L
Niners L
Cowboys L
What a stretch! I'll bet that's the toughest six game stretch of any team in the NFL this season!
I know they went 0-6. But damn, that's like a firing squad of excellent teams.
And who did they beat up on before that?
Atlanta Washington Houston - Bad and below average teams
Who beat them the first two games? Detroit and Arizona - Two teams fighting for a first round bye in the NFC. This is a horrendous schedule for the Giants and they still have fought to win especially these past two weeks, especially as they are injury ravaged.
And remember, this is in a season where they completely overhauled their offense (which takes time and results in guaranteed losses during the growing pains). That 4-7 ATS record looks a bit better now no?
And on the other side of the coin, what do the Jags have to play for? Is your money on a team that really shows it doesn't quit (it loses but it doesn't quit) or the ....Jags. Why should the Jags show up here with 1 win?
Giants lose this game? They are at rock rock rock bottom.
I'm sorry. Ya gotta go Giants here. I don't care if 1 million bettors are on them and only one is on the Jags at Giants -3. And you are right to ask now. The public was more interested in the Thanksgiving Day games and when they look to the weekend they will drive this line up more.
I personally do not fear the way books set lines when it comes to the Giants and Knicks. I play them as I see them and of course -2.5 is suspect. But remember, this is a 3-8 team on the road. How much are they going to lay? Cowboys on a neutral field laid 6 remember? Cowboys crushed them (and yes Romo's injury was juggling that line but still). Good for me bad for them. I locked in at -3.
That's my opinion. I'm in at -3 and I almost certainly see it getting to -3.5 and even as you said, 4 possibly.
Giants -3 for me to take it down. FINALLY they get a break in the schedule after the most brutal stretch in all of football.
The Pick: Giants -3 over Jaguars
If you are reading this on Saturday, I'd be shocked if the -3 -110 is still there.
No reason to tail me until I get over .500 but I will keep posting to do so.
NYG -2.5, any higher??? No PLAY 
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