Game theory scenario

With score at 42 - 35 and 2:18 left Pitt had 3 time out but choose to kick an onside kick that didn't even travel the 10 yards. So anyone know the probababilty of a successful onside kick vs getting a 3 and out?

Pitt had 2 timeouts, not 3 (3 if you count the 2-minute warning), but yes, I thought the smart play was to kick off and play defense. Probability of recovering the onside kick had to be lower than forcing a 3-and-out.

Onside kick was the correct decision in my opinion. It was just very poorly executed. Had it been kicked a bit farther they could have potentially recovered it as plan A, but still would have had the 3 and out scenario as plan B. It was just a terrible kick.

 

I thought ther percentage of recovering an onside kick is lower than 50% in the league! When you still have time outs, you should let your defense stop them and get the ball back. If you only have a minute left with no time out to stop your oppenent, then you have to go for an onside kick.

Chances of recovering an expected onside kick is just under 20%. If you recover, your expected win probability is almost 25%.

If they can hold them to 3 running plays and out and start the drive around the 30. Their win probability is about 13%. Even if you think there's a 50/50 chance of holding them to 3 and out, you've gained about 2-4% worth by kicking deep.

Not huge, but when you're desperate, it counts.

The Rooneys will probably extend Tomlin's contract now...what dopes these grandsons are...I have contempt for race based 'Affirmative Action'.