DON JUAN'S SUPERBOWL # 55 SELECTION !

Hello old friends,
 
It’s me again, your old super bowl buddy still alive.
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My favorite old football saying “Some people think football is a matter of life and death, but I can assure you, it’s more serious than that” !   I love football and live football, I've seen every Super Bowl since 1967, and bet on all 54 of them. I dream about it, I eat it ! 
 
Naturally, I'm very proud of my 16-3 Super Bowl record over almost 20 years Against The Spread here (forum/search/enter-don juan /keyword-Superbowl  )As you know I live in Florida and a Tampa Bay fan, I’m sure some of you young studs will now think I'm a homer. Wrong. 

I could give you a thousand statistical reasons why Tampa Bay or Kansas City can win this game, but statistics are very misleading. I always take an overview of the game. This year I'm putting more emphasis on the Bye week and the Adjustments.

 I’ve seen every Buc's game this year seen their slow improvement every week.  I especially recall Week12 when KC played at Tampa. In the first, KC jumped out to a 17-0 lead and ran it up to a 20-7 lead at halftime. Second half Tampa Bay made a comeback but Kansas City held onto a 27-24 win.
The Buc's looked tired in that loss. I was sure it was because they didn't have a bye week as yet. Tampa Bay and Carolina were the last two teams to have a bye, on week-13.   Did you know that week-13 was the latest bye week in history?   

Since that bye week Tampa Bay has not lost a game. They beat Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit, Atlanta once again, then on the road to Washington, New Orleans, and Green Bay. That's five out of seven road games, including three straight playoff road games. No wonder they let up at the end of the Green Bay game up 28-to-10 after the 3rd quarter, they were worn out. And, do you think it was luck when Brady scored that TD to Miller just before the half in that game?   No, that was an experienced quarterback at work, taking advantage of mistakes. So now is the perfect time for TB to have a bye week, to get healthy again and make adjustments before Super Bowl 55. 

Kansas City had their bye week back on Week-10 and another bye on Wild Card week. So they were well rested, yet Cleveland almost beat them, down only 17-22 when Mahomes got hurt with 4 minutes left in the game. And don't forget, Cleveland had a terrible call when a ref called a touch back after the runner hit the pylon, and fumbled into the end zone.  The next week KC beat Buffalo, with a young and obviously inexperienced quarterback.

Continued..

Kansas City is a good team. In fact, I picked them to beat S F last year because Mahomes was a much better quarterback than less playoff experienced Garoppolo. 
Sure enough, SF down 24-20 with about 2 minutes to go and Garoppolo missed a wide open receiver right up the middle for the touchdown and S F lost the game. But, now KC is in the Superbowl against a real quarterback, Tom Brady.  Not Tannyhill, Garoppolo, Mayfield or Allen. So why is Tampa a +3.5 dog home stadium anyway?  Is it based on their performance at the end of the Green Bay game?  Or when Tampa Bay lost to K.City on week-12? 

I can absolutely understand why TB was a +3.5 underdog on Week-12, because the Buc's just lost to the Rams and lost to N.Orleans.   But, I don't get it now!  A team that is averaging over 34 points since their bye week and won their last 7 games, and 5 of those games on the road!  A Superbowl home-dog with the Goat running the show? Are they kidding me ? Does that make sense to you? Think about it !

I think Vegas is wrong, Tampa Bay will be ready for Kansas City this time. I'll take Tom Brady and his pro-bowl teammates, remember he is a comeback kid too. In the final analysis, Brady's experience wins. Tampa Bay 34-30So my official Superbowl 55 selection is Tampa Bay + 3

Good Luck to All, 
Don Juan

GL I like it

Thank you Don for showing such longetivity on covers we appreciate your insight 

Great read. Thank you for your insight. 

 YES SIR!!!!! MUCH THANKS JUST WHAT I WAS HOPING FOR 

@don juan

Great insight as always bro! 

BOL 

BOL Don Juan... Thanks for posting big guy...I wonder of all of the Superbowls that you attended, which one was your favorite and why? 

I am on the other side of the fence with KC, but that is what makes a horse race right? 

Thank you Don Juan! BOL

Bol Don thank you for the pick! God willing see you next year

Thank you Legend DonJuan! I am on the other side with KC.  Tom Brady Born: August 3, 1977 (age 43 years)

Patrick Mahomes II: Born: September 17, 1995 (age 25 years). Don't you think age is the problem? The Buc's will look tired again. Is it possible you change your mind? lol. Let us know, I will double my wagers. Thanks again!  see you next year!

@ Don Jaun I’m Glad I’m On The Correct Side I Bet Tampa Bay +450 To Win It All Right Before Kickoff Greenbay Game.

great stuff, taking the bye angle that nobody is looking at.  Good luck Mr. Juan!

@DJ

”I can absolutely understand why TB was a +3.5 underdog on Week-12, because the Buc's just lost to the Rams and lost to N.Orleans.”

Thats correct the Bucs lost to 3 playoff teams consecutively in the Rams, Saints and KC. Followed up with wins vs tomato cans to close out the regular season.

Great writer....Thank you & Stay well !

KC is a very tall order I’m riding the ml kc Sunday looking at a few props ...Gl2u

Best of luck to you, the legend around here!

I was just wondering what do you think about the over? I like Tampa to cover the +3 I keep seeing this close game. But already have KC ML in a parlay so I am thinking hedge out with Tampa + over? After last year's shit fest I think we see a shootout here. Also the total being so high kind of gives away the over to me ... but you never know until it's over. That's why we play the game!

 The king has spoken. 

My bad I just saw your final score prediction. Looks like we are in agreement about the over too!

Remember when NE was in KC and spread was +3 for NE and the game went waaaay over but started out super low scoring. Then KC scored like 35 in a half lol anyway I had NE ML + over in that game. I have a feeling we see a similar game here? Starting slow then turning into a shootout...

@don juan

 Yes!!! Great post, thanks Don Juan!

Nothing better than a Don Juan SB write up! Went against you last year and it cost me. Fortunately I was leaning TB for this one. I've never bet against Brady in the big game and not gonna start now.. GL 

Glad to be on the same side. 

@don juan

 The bye week factor for the Buccs is very underrated  

just a note, KC was not up 22-17 when Mahomes left the game.  It was 19-10 with Kc driving about 6 mins left.  Mahomes goes out and they get the FG with Henne to make it 22-10.  Great run DJ