DK NFL Week 7

Record: 44-26-1

Went 5-5-1 in week 6, it was a choppy but highly questionable week in the NFL. Yet I somehow survived with a breakeven record and my contest picks won 3 out of 5, so gotta count my blessings when I can and move on to the next week. My model thinks Bears -3 is a tad high therefore I'm leaning Pats +3. Looks like they are possibly a public dog off 3 straight wins against a Bears team that looks like they may finally be back on track with Caleb's return? I'll have to give this one a bit of thought. 

Public primetime dogs are 4-3 ats , covered their last 4 during this run 

First play: 

Falcons +3(-102)

Falcons ml +146 *small*

Hard for me to think the Falcons won't be excited to host the undefeated Niners at home and seeking their first home win of the season and trying to pull within 1.5 games behind the Panthers. Falcons catch the Niners at the right time, off a short week and banged up. Niners under Shanahan have been in this situation twice where they played on a Monday with a BYE coming up: they're 1-1. Shanahan before the BYE are just 5-4 SU, nothing extraordinary. I think Mike Evans will be out and that will hurt the Niners offensive production. All their regular season WR from beginning of the season are hurt. Not saying Shanahan isn't clever enough to find a way to get the most out of the backup receivers. Niners will put up points don't get me wrong, but what I saw from Niners defense in the 2H on Monday I feel like Penix will pour it on. This feels like a 26-23 Falcons win 

Play #2

Dolphins +4.5(-106)

Dolphins ml +192 *small*

Haven't bet on the Dolphins since that Chiefs game where the defender roughed up Mahomes that cost them the cover and went as far as putting them on my DNB list, however 4 weeks later I will take them off just for this one game. If there is one team the Dolphins have owned no matter how many different coaches and players they have gone through over the years it is the Jets: 16-4 SU in the last 20 H2H matches for the past decade. Also the Dolphins are 7-3 SU after the BYE week around the same span. Despite the lack of talent on this team, the Dolphins have played hard during their last 3 games going 1-1-1 or 2-1 ATS depending what spread you had. Of course, luck will be involved in this one, see the Vikings and Bengals game where it came down to some fluke plays in the 4th quarter. I expect nothing different here. Rolling the dice here on the Dolphins, spread model was a tad bit high which is why I am considering them again. I think Malik Willis' mobility and Ollie Gordon can exploit this Jets defense and lead the Dolphins to their first win of the season. 

Might just skip TNF but current thought:

Monangai hasn't practice back to back. I feel like Monangai is a spark plug the Bears need even though they did just fine without him vs Falcons. Patriots defense presents a tougher match for Bears passing game

On the other side of the fence, Pats may not have both their starting guards for this match. I wonder what that will mean for their running game and pass protection. I would think their running games takes a bit more of a hit, but Bears secondary seems exploitable if Maye has time to throw.

Lean Pats but soft lean...

@undermysac

@SteamCave