Posted:
#76
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if Pete Carroll wins by 1 point then he will be happy.... |
bigFnPOO
0
Contemplating the biggest bet of my life... Need input
Posted:
#78
I've been in similar spots, albeit in the WNBA lol, where I felt 100% confident and want to raise my bet limit astronomically like you today....but here's what you have to consider.
#1. The Cover's Curse: no one has ever had any luck with the "Largest bet of My Life" thread, just never pans out
#2. $2,000.00 already on the game and guys coming to your house is a good time, if indeed you win you should take that as a sign your capping abilities are getting sharp and use that momentum going forward and continue to build your bankroll as these "sure thing" play feelings will arise again and you can capitalize again
#3. if you lose you are in disarray and likely out of the game or on some kind of mad tilt that could disrupt what seems like a decent life and outlook now, I've seen it and so have you guys getting in over their head...you know that if you did bet $10g and won that would only embolden you to think that you could do it again, that's a very slippery slope...keep doing what you do, be satisfied w/ the $2g bet and house party
GL
#1. The Cover's Curse: no one has ever had any luck with the "Largest bet of My Life" thread, just never pans out
#2. $2,000.00 already on the game and guys coming to your house is a good time, if indeed you win you should take that as a sign your capping abilities are getting sharp and use that momentum going forward and continue to build your bankroll as these "sure thing" play feelings will arise again and you can capitalize again
#3. if you lose you are in disarray and likely out of the game or on some kind of mad tilt that could disrupt what seems like a decent life and outlook now, I've seen it and so have you guys getting in over their head...you know that if you did bet $10g and won that would only embolden you to think that you could do it again, that's a very slippery slope...keep doing what you do, be satisfied w/ the $2g bet and house party
GL
undertaker
0
Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by SJSharks99:
This is exactly the type of input I was searching for. Much appreciated.
The stubborness in me is the one who wants to make it. The logically and financial minded in me is saying stay pat on the 2k.
I'm literally torn, I guess u can say I'll be sick if I lose the 10k bet and was wrong, but also be sick if I don't do the 10k and it plays out how I think it will which is to the tune of 31-6, 31-3 type of score.
Ahhhhhhhh the joys of the unknown
This is exactly the type of input I was searching for. Much appreciated.
The stubborness in me is the one who wants to make it. The logically and financial minded in me is saying stay pat on the 2k.
I'm literally torn, I guess u can say I'll be sick if I lose the 10k bet and was wrong, but also be sick if I don't do the 10k and it plays out how I think it will which is to the tune of 31-6, 31-3 type of score.
Ahhhhhhhh the joys of the unknown
So winning 2k on the original wager would make you feel sick? At this point you have to realize that this is about ego and not money. The moment you decided to make this the largest wager of your career, winning 2k was simply not enough. Been there, done that. And while I happen to agree on the side, I played 2% on my roll on it, as I do every play. I think SEA covers 60% of the time which is why I have my money on them, but the improbable is right there. Blocked kicks (and SEA ST are bad) and turnovers...crap I've out gained my opponent 3-1 in first downs and yardage and lost bets.Styuff happens, live to fight another day. There will be seeming "can't miss" bets all year.
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Posted:
#85
Good morning all
After reading all your feedback and getting a goodnights rest. I have gone back n forth but as many of u pointed out I shouldn't do it. In large part the money management piece and the anything can happen, fluke missed extra point, blocked punt etc.
So with that in my end I'll be riding out my $2,000 bet.
Thank you everyone I really appreciate the feedback and all the great advice. Best of luck in all your wagers today
After reading all your feedback and getting a goodnights rest. I have gone back n forth but as many of u pointed out I shouldn't do it. In large part the money management piece and the anything can happen, fluke missed extra point, blocked punt etc.
So with that in my end I'll be riding out my $2,000 bet.
Thank you everyone I really appreciate the feedback and all the great advice. Best of luck in all your wagers today
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Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:
Hedge your $2k, ~9.5 bet on Seattle by taking Seattle ML at ~450, which would cover about 3/4ths of an ATS Seattle loss, should the Niners cover.
But I can't imagine the Niners winning SU in Seattle. No way. No how.
But the Niners' D could keep the game close.
It's likely that both the Seattle ATS and ML bets win, netting you over $3,500, which is nice, yes? About 10 times your normal bet.
Getting greedy can cost you dearly, ya know.
Hedge your $2k, ~9.5 bet on Seattle by taking Seattle ML at ~450, which would cover about 3/4ths of an ATS Seattle loss, should the Niners cover.
But I can't imagine the Niners winning SU in Seattle. No way. No how.
But the Niners' D could keep the game close.
It's likely that both the Seattle ATS and ML bets win, netting you over $3,500, which is nice, yes? About 10 times your normal bet.
Getting greedy can cost you dearly, ya know.
Yeah that would be the upset of the year. SF is not moving the ball on offense, so it is a hard one to see at all. Because these are two elite team, the -9 appears safe to me. Lot of false hope and respect for the Niners.
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Posted:
#92
I am not sure if this will support your play or not so take it for what it is worth. Last week I had a 11 team parlay with College Football and Pro. I am a huge Raiders fan but they have been awfull. My pending games were Den ML and SFO ML and Indianapolis MLfor small risk but huge reward for me. Indy game went late and I thought it was going to lose. I hedged on Den game just in case but left SFO ML in place not wanting to throw away money since it was all but garauntee they would beat Oakland. You know the turnout. Keep in mind the week before Oakland was beat 52-0. Some guy posted he was going to quit betting NFL since it was fixed and there was no way the game he chose could lose ML. It did and someone else told him bet all you got on the Raiders next week. MNF games have strange things happen like Atl covering the 14 point spread losing by 13 and Jets having no chance against Mia yet led most the game. Everyone is on SEA and for good reason. I said last week the same thing the other guy did. I am taking SFO next week since there is no way they have a chance of winning at Seattle somehow they will and almost for sure cover the number.....NFL makes no sense anymore throw stats records etc out in Divisional Rivalry games. Everybody telling Sea how good they are returning to Super Bowl form and everyone blaming Kapernick and Harbaugh. I dont know how I dont know why. Just feels like one of those times if it all points to one way.....go the other.....BOL to you I hope you win it all....Never bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose. That one seems like it would hurt some. The under is low but seems like a better bet to me than the spread on this one.
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Posted:
#99
Crazy this same SFO team that looked so bad last week against Raiders....All I needed them to do was win the game. The running backs are running possessed with passion and effort today. Seattle Defense looks very good again...Its the offense that is the problem when you laying points gotta have both. Nobody thought GB would fall to Buffalo today either. Hope Lynch and the boyz get it rolling for you man
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