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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Colin Cowherd had an interesting theory on Pats/Packers and it really is starting to make sense

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    scalabrine
    Syddigs
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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:17 AM ET #26

    To all the above

    Oh and by the way, LC posted a pick for the Thunder that game. (5 units at the time, a BIG bet for his posts. Now we are at ten units today!)

    I am in that thread telling him I like the pick and actually tailed him..

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    To all the above

    Oh and by the way, LC posted a pick for the Thunder that game. (5 units at the time, a BIG bet for his posts. Now we are at ten units today!)

    I am in that thread telling him I like the pick and actually tailed him..

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:18 AM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

    Funniest thing I have read all day- ever hear of game film? The Packers have seen everything the Pats have to offer- at this point in the season it is all about execution- Pats want home field advantage- if they had that locked up maybe they might take it easy- if they lose today it will be because of a great effort by the Packers- 
    You think game film has EVERYTHING a team has to offer? Ok.

    It's an angle. That is all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

    Funniest thing I have read all day- ever hear of game film? The Packers have seen everything the Pats have to offer- at this point in the season it is all about execution- Pats want home field advantage- if they had that locked up maybe they might take it easy- if they lose today it will be because of a great effort by the Packers- 
    You think game film has EVERYTHING a team has to offer? Ok.

    It's an angle. That is all.

     
    Syddigs
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:18 AM ET #28

    [Quote: Originally Posted by scalabrine]


     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Who did the Spurs meat in the playoffs? The Thunder.

    Who won the series? The Spurs.

    Who won the championship? The Spurs.

     

    MEAT? Seriously? For a guy who sits on his high horse and spends a good deal of his time telling everyone how smart he is and how he will always win, I could not pass up that opportunity.

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    [Quote: Originally Posted by scalabrine]


     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Who did the Spurs meat in the playoffs? The Thunder.

    Who won the series? The Spurs.

    Who won the championship? The Spurs.

     

    MEAT? Seriously? For a guy who sits on his high horse and spends a good deal of his time telling everyone how smart he is and how he will always win, I could not pass up that opportunity.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:18 AM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    You lost me when you said that Cowherd is the best in the business. The guy is a prized person!

    He is the only radio personality in America that understands spreads down to .5 pt.

    He even brings on a sharp to criticize his picks if necessary!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    You lost me when you said that Cowherd is the best in the business. The guy is a prized person!

    He is the only radio personality in America that understands spreads down to .5 pt.

    He even brings on a sharp to criticize his picks if necessary!

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:19 AM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Degenerate:

    not a bad theory, but bball and football seasons are totally different ballgames. Nfl seasons dont have games to spare when home field & playoff seeding is on the line. Pop and Belicheck are both clearly the best at what they do, so you never really know what their master plan is.. but I cant imagine the Pats (players and coaches) coming out with a 100% effort today.

    any plays for you today?

    Yes, Giants.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Degenerate:

    not a bad theory, but bball and football seasons are totally different ballgames. Nfl seasons dont have games to spare when home field & playoff seeding is on the line. Pop and Belicheck are both clearly the best at what they do, so you never really know what their master plan is.. but I cant imagine the Pats (players and coaches) coming out with a 100% effort today.

    any plays for you today?

    Yes, Giants.

     
    podsox
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:20 AM ET #31

    sandbag a team that you likely wont see again?  last yr has to be the first time the 2 top teams actually made it to the title game to face each other.
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    sandbag a team that you likely wont see again?  last yr has to be the first time the 2 top teams actually made it to the title game to face each other.
     
    tboon
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:20 AM ET #32

    I don't see it myself.... besides a single NBA game is 80% less important than a single NFL game. i.e. they play 82 games vrs 16 in the NFL...

    I like the Pack regardless but I'm doubtful of the theory.

    Cheers
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    I don't see it myself.... besides a single NBA game is 80% less important than a single NFL game. i.e. they play 82 games vrs 16 in the NFL...

    I like the Pack regardless but I'm doubtful of the theory.

    Cheers
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:20 AM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by clepto:

    Dumbest theory I ever heard. New England wants to have home field in the playoffs. Enough said.

    They can still get home field. They have the tie-breakers. And Denver has been faltering in recent weeks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clepto:

    Dumbest theory I ever heard. New England wants to have home field in the playoffs. Enough said.

    They can still get home field. They have the tie-breakers. And Denver has been faltering in recent weeks.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:22 AM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Who did the Spurs meat in the playoffs? The Thunder.

    Who won the series? The Spurs.

    Who won the championship? The Spurs.

     

    MEAT? Seriously? For a guy who sits on his high horse and spends a good deal of his time telling everyone how smart he is and how he will always win, I could not pass up that opportunity.

     

    Typically a typo like that should be called out EXCEPT in this case...

    Did you see my last thread about MEAT tenderizers???

    POUND THIS GAME like EMERIL!
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Who did the Spurs meat in the playoffs? The Thunder.

    Who won the series? The Spurs.

    Who won the championship? The Spurs.

     

    MEAT? Seriously? For a guy who sits on his high horse and spends a good deal of his time telling everyone how smart he is and how he will always win, I could not pass up that opportunity.

     

    Typically a typo like that should be called out EXCEPT in this case...

    Did you see my last thread about MEAT tenderizers???

    POUND THIS GAME like EMERIL!
     

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:23 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by podsox:

    sandbag a team that you likely wont see again?  last yr has to be the first time the 2 top teams actually made it to the title game to face each other.

     

    Likely won't see them again?

    They are co-favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.

    Yes, it is a long way off but let's not sit here and dismiss meeting again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by podsox:

    sandbag a team that you likely wont see again?  last yr has to be the first time the 2 top teams actually made it to the title game to face each other.

     

    Likely won't see them again?

    They are co-favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.

    Yes, it is a long way off but let's not sit here and dismiss meeting again.

     
    Syddigs
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:23 AM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

    Typically a typo like that should be called out EXCEPT in this case...

    Did you see my last thread about MEAT tenderizers???

    POUND THIS GAME like EMERIL!
     

    Good comeback. Best of luck today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

    Typically a typo like that should be called out EXCEPT in this case...

    Did you see my last thread about MEAT tenderizers???

    POUND THIS GAME like EMERIL!
     

    Good comeback. Best of luck today.

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:24 AM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by golfing123:

    It was also stated on his show that the Pats thru weeks 9-14 since 2010 have only lost 3 games. Something like 30-3. Don't believe that stat is ats though. Not sure.

    Which makes the line even that much less appealing for the Packers

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    Quote Originally Posted by golfing123:

    It was also stated on his show that the Pats thru weeks 9-14 since 2010 have only lost 3 games. Something like 30-3. Don't believe that stat is ats though. Not sure.

    Which makes the line even that much less appealing for the Packers

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:25 AM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by tboon:

    I don't see it myself.... besides a single NBA game is 80% less important than a single NFL game. i.e. they play 82 games vrs 16 in the NFL...

    I like the Pack regardless but I'm doubtful of the theory.

    Cheers

    True. But it's still a substantial winning streak and keeping a team hungry and focused is important.

    When you are on a winning streak, that could break at the worst possible time (in the playoffs).

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    Quote Originally Posted by tboon:

    I don't see it myself.... besides a single NBA game is 80% less important than a single NFL game. i.e. they play 82 games vrs 16 in the NFL...

    I like the Pack regardless but I'm doubtful of the theory.

    Cheers

    True. But it's still a substantial winning streak and keeping a team hungry and focused is important.

    When you are on a winning streak, that could break at the worst possible time (in the playoffs).

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:25 AM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Good comeback. Best of luck today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Good comeback. Best of luck today.

     
    Syddigs
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:30 AM ET #40

    Without wanting to sound like a huge square, you don't often see + money/points about the Patriots, and when you do it generally pays to take it.

    Patriots show bite as an underdog. New England is listed as underdogs for the fifth time this season. The Patriots have won each time by an average margin of 21.3 points.

    • vs. Bengals (plus-2.5) -- 43-17
    • at Bills (plus-1) -- 37-22
    • vs. Broncos (plus-3) -- 43-21
    • at Colts (plus-3) -- 42-20
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    Without wanting to sound like a huge square, you don't often see + money/points about the Patriots, and when you do it generally pays to take it.

    Patriots show bite as an underdog. New England is listed as underdogs for the fifth time this season. The Patriots have won each time by an average margin of 21.3 points.

    • vs. Bengals (plus-2.5) -- 43-17
    • at Bills (plus-1) -- 37-22
    • vs. Broncos (plus-3) -- 43-21
    • at Colts (plus-3) -- 42-20
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:33 AM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Without wanting to sound like a huge square, you don't often see + money/points about the Patriots, and when you do it generally pays to take it.

    Patriots show bite as an underdog. New England is listed as underdogs for the fifth time this season. The Patriots have won each time by an average margin of 21.3 points.

    • vs. Bengals (plus-2.5) -- 43-17
    • at Bills (plus-1) -- 37-22
    • vs. Broncos (plus-3) -- 43-21
    • at Colts (plus-3) -- 42-20

    Totally understood.

    It's just an angle because laying upwards of -3.5 against the Pats(which to me, with that hook, is near mind-boggling) is so distasteful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    Without wanting to sound like a huge square, you don't often see + money/points about the Patriots, and when you do it generally pays to take it.

    Patriots show bite as an underdog. New England is listed as underdogs for the fifth time this season. The Patriots have won each time by an average margin of 21.3 points.

    • vs. Bengals (plus-2.5) -- 43-17
    • at Bills (plus-1) -- 37-22
    • vs. Broncos (plus-3) -- 43-21
    • at Colts (plus-3) -- 42-20

    Totally understood.

    It's just an angle because laying upwards of -3.5 against the Pats(which to me, with that hook, is near mind-boggling) is so distasteful.

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:39 AM ET #42

    Interesting theory. The thing I don't like about theories like this are, basically it's only quess work, no-one but Pop or BB in this case knows that.

    If your going to apply quess work might as well throw darts at a dart board because it's the same result.

    What I think is far more reasonable is when teams go on these type runs the better teams in the league like the Thunder or the Packers are very, very motivated to end the streak and prove all the pundits wrong who now after all those wins in a steak are talking big about how great the team on the streak is.

    Hence why the Thunder were celebrating so big after beating the Spurs, they proved the pundits wrong.

    I think Colin is on the right team but for the wrong reason, which will lead him  to believe the reasoning is correct  if GB wins and one can use that against him in the future in another spot he brings this reasoning up.
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    Interesting theory. The thing I don't like about theories like this are, basically it's only quess work, no-one but Pop or BB in this case knows that.

    If your going to apply quess work might as well throw darts at a dart board because it's the same result.

    What I think is far more reasonable is when teams go on these type runs the better teams in the league like the Thunder or the Packers are very, very motivated to end the streak and prove all the pundits wrong who now after all those wins in a steak are talking big about how great the team on the streak is.

    Hence why the Thunder were celebrating so big after beating the Spurs, they proved the pundits wrong.

    I think Colin is on the right team but for the wrong reason, which will lead him  to believe the reasoning is correct  if GB wins and one can use that against him in the future in another spot he brings this reasoning up.
     
    CBo
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:39 AM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    I'm an MVP. You're a veteran. I tell you where things should and shouldn't be posted.

    Now go get your shinebox boy  
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    I'm an MVP. You're a veteran. I tell you where things should and shouldn't be posted.

    Now go get your shinebox boy  
     
    Garthvader
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 11:52 AM ET #44

    Idiotic theory.  Taking the better defence +3 on the road.
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    Idiotic theory.  Taking the better defence +3 on the road.
     
    Arod12
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:01 PM ET #45

    Doubt he wants to "lay down" here. It MAY be an option if they were in the same division but you are talking a NFC and AFC team. They are fighting for playoff position within their respective conferences. Not to mention Detroit won on Thanksgiving so Green Bay should give it their best in this one to try and keep the lead. 

    You never know on the Patriots but I doubt anything happens. If that is the case, did he already do it once this year with the COLLAPSE AT KANSAS CITY?
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    Doubt he wants to "lay down" here. It MAY be an option if they were in the same division but you are talking a NFC and AFC team. They are fighting for playoff position within their respective conferences. Not to mention Detroit won on Thanksgiving so Green Bay should give it their best in this one to try and keep the lead. 

    You never know on the Patriots but I doubt anything happens. If that is the case, did he already do it once this year with the COLLAPSE AT KANSAS CITY?
     
    Sharkysden
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:03 PM ET #46

    It's a nice thought but the Pats are not going to drop a game just to "keep players motivated. "  They may be on top right now but they have to keep winning to keep that lead.
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    It's a nice thought but the Pats are not going to drop a game just to "keep players motivated. "  They may be on top right now but they have to keep winning to keep that lead.
     
    samuelsosa
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:10 PM ET #47

    Scal..decent theory. I think Pop is a freakin' genius and I love what he does. Bellichek is def. the Pop of the NFL. so I enjoyed the theory.

    My only knock is that in the WEST last year

     

    It was pretty much a guarantee that the Spurs would meet again. They were damn near locks to meet in the Western Finals and did.

    Patriots AND Packers both making the Super Bowl is a lot harder than OKC and SAS both making the western finals. That changes things big time.

    I do however believe in the not showing your hand theory. I actually felt that way a few weeks back. CAVS VS SPURS. The one where LeBron bounced the ball off his legs in the final seconds and the SPurs won.

     

    I figured the Spurs didn't really care about that game. After all, they won the title last year. Where I felt like LBJ wanted revenge for the finals and he would go ball out. And the Spurs would just see it as a meaningless reg. season game.

     

    SPurs won, I was wrong but I love the angles. Gluck on NYG today Scal.

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    Scal..decent theory. I think Pop is a freakin' genius and I love what he does. Bellichek is def. the Pop of the NFL. so I enjoyed the theory.

    My only knock is that in the WEST last year

     

    It was pretty much a guarantee that the Spurs would meet again. They were damn near locks to meet in the Western Finals and did.

    Patriots AND Packers both making the Super Bowl is a lot harder than OKC and SAS both making the western finals. That changes things big time.

    I do however believe in the not showing your hand theory. I actually felt that way a few weeks back. CAVS VS SPURS. The one where LeBron bounced the ball off his legs in the final seconds and the SPurs won.

     

    I figured the Spurs didn't really care about that game. After all, they won the title last year. Where I felt like LBJ wanted revenge for the finals and he would go ball out. And the Spurs would just see it as a meaningless reg. season game.

     

    SPurs won, I was wrong but I love the angles. Gluck on NYG today Scal.

     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:11 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    You lost me when you said that Cowherd is the best in the business. The guy is a prized person!
    This  The fact anyone listens to this jag off is a mind blow to me.  Great self promoter, nothing more.
    Don’t tell me the law. Tell me the judge.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Syddigs:

    You lost me when you said that Cowherd is the best in the business. The guy is a prized person!
    This  The fact anyone listens to this jag off is a mind blow to me.  Great self promoter, nothing more.
     
    gkastanza
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:16 PM ET #49

    Nice Theory, but a theory is just another word for opinion. 
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    Nice Theory, but a theory is just another word for opinion. 
     
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Nov. 30, 2014 - 12:26 PM ET #50

    I just want to clarify something for all the comments above.


    This theory isn't about laying down or intentionally risking home field. And yes soda, they were a lock to meet in the WCF and that is not the case for the Super Bowl.

    But, what prevents Belickick who might get in a hole early, say 14-3 (and the pack can do that to anyone) from 'going vanilla' with the Playbook.

    Even if he did, the Pats can still win! So the players are not laying down.

    It's just about foresight and keeping youth team hungry agaisnt a team that has a great shot at beating you anyway.

    Why go full bore down 17-7 at the half let's say, lose, show GB everything you have, lay it all out there and deflate your team in upcoming weeks where the players know they actually played their heart out and still lost, materializing doubt in their minds.

    Pop avoids this completely when he just sits his big three in big games without a care in the world. Then he beats up in the Rest of the league, fine-tuning his team against bottom feeders, all the while making the good teams think they have one up on the Spurs or "are scared of them."

    I could see Belichick doing this.
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    I just want to clarify something for all the comments above.


    This theory isn't about laying down or intentionally risking home field. And yes soda, they were a lock to meet in the WCF and that is not the case for the Super Bowl.

    But, what prevents Belickick who might get in a hole early, say 14-3 (and the pack can do that to anyone) from 'going vanilla' with the Playbook.

    Even if he did, the Pats can still win! So the players are not laying down.

    It's just about foresight and keeping youth team hungry agaisnt a team that has a great shot at beating you anyway.

    Why go full bore down 17-7 at the half let's say, lose, show GB everything you have, lay it all out there and deflate your team in upcoming weeks where the players know they actually played their heart out and still lost, materializing doubt in their minds.

    Pop avoids this completely when he just sits his big three in big games without a care in the world. Then he beats up in the Rest of the league, fine-tuning his team against bottom feeders, all the while making the good teams think they have one up on the Spurs or "are scared of them."

    I could see Belichick doing this.
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