I went 0-3 last night , 1-4 on Sunday and only won Wisconsin on Saturday. Saturday was also 1-4. That is 2-11. Is this normal when you go on a bad streak?
I'm wondering does a winning bettor can ever catch up to these streaks? Do you guys think some people just are unlucky or I'm doing something wrong. I will take fault for betting against home teams when they have great home records every year but Jesus two of the Bills defensive tackles were out I believe and my rushing prop Henry over was annihilated.
I can learn from my mistakes. The defenses are fresh to start the year or Henry is just not Henry anymore. With my Titans +10 it was bad and betting the fkn Vikings was worse.
I'm not gonna complain not for me. I want to better myself and any help would be appreciated. I only bet Friday Sat Sun but getting back on track is gonna be really hard and nasty. A terrible way to start the season.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I went 0-3 last night , 1-4 on Sunday and only won Wisconsin on Saturday. Saturday was also 1-4. That is 2-11. Is this normal when you go on a bad streak?
I'm wondering does a winning bettor can ever catch up to these streaks? Do you guys think some people just are unlucky or I'm doing something wrong. I will take fault for betting against home teams when they have great home records every year but Jesus two of the Bills defensive tackles were out I believe and my rushing prop Henry over was annihilated.
I can learn from my mistakes. The defenses are fresh to start the year or Henry is just not Henry anymore. With my Titans +10 it was bad and betting the fkn Vikings was worse.
I'm not gonna complain not for me. I want to better myself and any help would be appreciated. I only bet Friday Sat Sun but getting back on track is gonna be really hard and nasty. A terrible way to start the season.
wondering if it's better to just stop while I'm ahead. I figured I would try this sports bettor thing and was kind of a smart ass so I definitely got my butt handed to me and suckered punched by Mike Tyson in his prime. 500 for me is a lot of money and I'm gonna try to get it back. not all at once obviously but if this crap happens again 2-11 this weekend I'm done bc 4-22 is just not what pros do so I've been reading
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wondering if it's better to just stop while I'm ahead. I figured I would try this sports bettor thing and was kind of a smart ass so I definitely got my butt handed to me and suckered punched by Mike Tyson in his prime. 500 for me is a lot of money and I'm gonna try to get it back. not all at once obviously but if this crap happens again 2-11 this weekend I'm done bc 4-22 is just not what pros do so I've been reading
it's really starting to hit me the 0-3 Monday night. aren't you supposed to at least win 1 out of ever 3? How the fk do I go 2-11? sorry It just really hit me this morning guys
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it's really starting to hit me the 0-3 Monday night. aren't you supposed to at least win 1 out of ever 3? How the fk do I go 2-11? sorry It just really hit me this morning guys
@EastsideBangers thank you what should a good volume be?
I have 1-2 ATS spread bets per week. The ones I believe in. If I spot 3? That's okay, but rarely happens. But some others play a lot bigger volume and are also profitable over the course of a season. Just find your own style.
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Quote Originally Posted by LionsIn2023:
@EastsideBangers thank you what should a good volume be?
I have 1-2 ATS spread bets per week. The ones I believe in. If I spot 3? That's okay, but rarely happens. But some others play a lot bigger volume and are also profitable over the course of a season. Just find your own style.
Yes its normal to start the season off bad, its hard to cap teams that haven't even played with some guys yet. some people take the first 2-3 weeks of the season off and get a feel for it first.
also if your struggling you should really limit yourself to 1 play a day, (3 max if your in the zone) and always cash out your money at the end of the day, don't leave it in your online book.
hope this help.
eating chicken dinners all day everyday
1
Yes its normal to start the season off bad, its hard to cap teams that haven't even played with some guys yet. some people take the first 2-3 weeks of the season off and get a feel for it first.
also if your struggling you should really limit yourself to 1 play a day, (3 max if your in the zone) and always cash out your money at the end of the day, don't leave it in your online book.
Losing streaks are all part of this. I am on an extended 2 month MLS losing streak myself, wiping out 4 months of profit and then some. It happens to all of us. I have gone 0-21 on NFL before.
You have to accept the above as part of the deal. But here is the thing....
Do you have a process that works long term? Do you even have a process?
Answer those two questions honestly. If you do not have a process, you are a rec gambler (which is fine) and can expect to land anywhere between 45% and 55% every season. The vig chews you up even further. If you really want to be good - you have to enter every game knowing that you have an edge. Not knowing that you have a WINNER, but that you have an EDGE.
Longterm gamblers win because they bet an edge over and over and over until that edge manifests in profits. They do not win by picking a winner. There needs to be a process. There are MANY processes that can work, but you need to have a process with an edge - and then repeat it.
I do not subscribe to the people who advise to only bet a certain amount of games. BS. Bet as many games as you can identify an edge on. Period.
Simple analogy: Roullette wheel....
If you walk up to a standard roulette wheel, every bet is negative expected value. The payouts for every bet on the board do not pay out as much as the should based on the odds of that spin happening - so there is no combination of bets or strategy that can make you a winner other than good fortune for a short period of time. Long term, this is going to result in losing. THis is a rec gambler.
But what better gamblers do is... They develop a process that flips some of those numbers on the wheel from black to red. Sometimes, maybe only one number, sometimes more. But in the end, they have more red numbers than black, so the more they play (or bet), the more they win. These people STILL LOSE in short spurts (like the run you are on), but in the LONG TERM THEY WIN.
This is the secret sauce. It is simple. Identify which you are, and PUT IN THE WORK.
Glad to answer any follow ups.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
3
Lions2023....
Losing streaks are all part of this. I am on an extended 2 month MLS losing streak myself, wiping out 4 months of profit and then some. It happens to all of us. I have gone 0-21 on NFL before.
You have to accept the above as part of the deal. But here is the thing....
Do you have a process that works long term? Do you even have a process?
Answer those two questions honestly. If you do not have a process, you are a rec gambler (which is fine) and can expect to land anywhere between 45% and 55% every season. The vig chews you up even further. If you really want to be good - you have to enter every game knowing that you have an edge. Not knowing that you have a WINNER, but that you have an EDGE.
Longterm gamblers win because they bet an edge over and over and over until that edge manifests in profits. They do not win by picking a winner. There needs to be a process. There are MANY processes that can work, but you need to have a process with an edge - and then repeat it.
I do not subscribe to the people who advise to only bet a certain amount of games. BS. Bet as many games as you can identify an edge on. Period.
Simple analogy: Roullette wheel....
If you walk up to a standard roulette wheel, every bet is negative expected value. The payouts for every bet on the board do not pay out as much as the should based on the odds of that spin happening - so there is no combination of bets or strategy that can make you a winner other than good fortune for a short period of time. Long term, this is going to result in losing. THis is a rec gambler.
But what better gamblers do is... They develop a process that flips some of those numbers on the wheel from black to red. Sometimes, maybe only one number, sometimes more. But in the end, they have more red numbers than black, so the more they play (or bet), the more they win. These people STILL LOSE in short spurts (like the run you are on), but in the LONG TERM THEY WIN.
This is the secret sauce. It is simple. Identify which you are, and PUT IN THE WORK.
Ok, so you're a newbie. We've all been newbies at one point. You honestly should spend the next couple of years betting SMALL and learning.
Seriously, if you can bet $5 at a time, do it. You're going to lose in the beginning - it's inevitable. Just make that learning experience as cheap as possible.
Stop betting so many games, especially this early in the season. We don't really know what most of these teams are made of yet. Pick a couple of spots a week that you really, really, really like. As the season progresses, maybe add another 1-2 bets, but only if you really, really like them.
Figure out why you bet: In reality, 95% of bettors are in it for the action, 5% are in it for the profit. Profitable guys will sometimes wait weeks or months between bets. Action guys want something on a game to make it more fun to watch. If you are in the 95% (you probably are), understand that for you, gambling is a hobby, and you won't be profitable at it. It's not any different than guys who fish or hunt or play golf - their hobbies cost them money, and your hobby of gambling will cost you money - embrace that fact or quit altogether.
Track your results and do it honestly and extensively. Make a simple spreadsheet and post every bet, keeping track of your wins/losses as you go. Also write down why you are making every single bet - if you can't explain why you are making a bet, you probably shouldn't be making it.
Read as much as you can about sports betting and learn to filter out the BS. There are some excellent threads on Covers from a few years back - Vanzack has written quite a bit on the subject. Some other guys have too. Educate yourself and stay away from anyone trying to sell you picks or even worse, a system.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
0
@LionsIn2023
Ok, so you're a newbie. We've all been newbies at one point. You honestly should spend the next couple of years betting SMALL and learning.
Seriously, if you can bet $5 at a time, do it. You're going to lose in the beginning - it's inevitable. Just make that learning experience as cheap as possible.
Stop betting so many games, especially this early in the season. We don't really know what most of these teams are made of yet. Pick a couple of spots a week that you really, really, really like. As the season progresses, maybe add another 1-2 bets, but only if you really, really like them.
Figure out why you bet: In reality, 95% of bettors are in it for the action, 5% are in it for the profit. Profitable guys will sometimes wait weeks or months between bets. Action guys want something on a game to make it more fun to watch. If you are in the 95% (you probably are), understand that for you, gambling is a hobby, and you won't be profitable at it. It's not any different than guys who fish or hunt or play golf - their hobbies cost them money, and your hobby of gambling will cost you money - embrace that fact or quit altogether.
Track your results and do it honestly and extensively. Make a simple spreadsheet and post every bet, keeping track of your wins/losses as you go. Also write down why you are making every single bet - if you can't explain why you are making a bet, you probably shouldn't be making it.
Read as much as you can about sports betting and learn to filter out the BS. There are some excellent threads on Covers from a few years back - Vanzack has written quite a bit on the subject. Some other guys have too. Educate yourself and stay away from anyone trying to sell you picks or even worse, a system.
@LionsIn2023 Ok, so you're a newbie. We've all been newbies at one point. You honestly should spend the next couple of years betting SMALL and learning. Seriously, if you can bet $5 at a time, do it. You're going to lose in the beginning - it's inevitable. Just make that learning experience as cheap as possible. Stop betting so many games, especially this early in the season. We don't really know what most of these teams are made of yet. Pick a couple of spots a week that you really, really, really like. As the season progresses, maybe add another 1-2 bets, but only if you really, really like them. Figure out why you bet: In reality, 95% of bettors are in it for the action, 5% are in it for the profit. Profitable guys will sometimes wait weeks or months between bets. Action guys want something on a game to make it more fun to watch. If you are in the 95% (you probably are), understand that for you, gambling is a hobby, and you won't be profitable at it. It's not any different than guys who fish or hunt or play golf - their hobbies cost them money, and your hobby of gambling will cost you money - embrace that fact or quit altogether. Track your results and do it honestly and extensively. Make a simple spreadsheet and post every bet, keeping track of your wins/losses as you go. Also write down why you are making every single bet - if you can't explain why you are making a bet, you probably shouldn't be making it. Read as much as you can about sports betting and learn to filter out the BS. There are some excellent threads on Covers from a few years back - Vanzack has written quite a bit on the subject. Some other guys have too. Educate yourself and stay away from anyone trying to sell you picks or even worse, a system.
I think we were typing at the same time. Excellent advice!
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bluecompass:
@LionsIn2023 Ok, so you're a newbie. We've all been newbies at one point. You honestly should spend the next couple of years betting SMALL and learning. Seriously, if you can bet $5 at a time, do it. You're going to lose in the beginning - it's inevitable. Just make that learning experience as cheap as possible. Stop betting so many games, especially this early in the season. We don't really know what most of these teams are made of yet. Pick a couple of spots a week that you really, really, really like. As the season progresses, maybe add another 1-2 bets, but only if you really, really like them. Figure out why you bet: In reality, 95% of bettors are in it for the action, 5% are in it for the profit. Profitable guys will sometimes wait weeks or months between bets. Action guys want something on a game to make it more fun to watch. If you are in the 95% (you probably are), understand that for you, gambling is a hobby, and you won't be profitable at it. It's not any different than guys who fish or hunt or play golf - their hobbies cost them money, and your hobby of gambling will cost you money - embrace that fact or quit altogether. Track your results and do it honestly and extensively. Make a simple spreadsheet and post every bet, keeping track of your wins/losses as you go. Also write down why you are making every single bet - if you can't explain why you are making a bet, you probably shouldn't be making it. Read as much as you can about sports betting and learn to filter out the BS. There are some excellent threads on Covers from a few years back - Vanzack has written quite a bit on the subject. Some other guys have too. Educate yourself and stay away from anyone trying to sell you picks or even worse, a system.
I think we were typing at the same time. Excellent advice!
Start small so you don't dig to deep a hole. Took me 10+ years to dig outta my youthful days of Longshot parlays as an example...its a grind
You mentioned 500 being a lot of money to you. So a 1-3% bankroll play of 5-15$ would be a good starting point....
Track plays in bunches of 100....after 10 sets of 100 plays you will have a data base of 1000 plays to see if u can hit the 52.4% mark and that's if you are playing -110 lines
Everyone has rough patches. I lost 9 in a row before it happens.
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@bluecompass
Very well said...
Start small so you don't dig to deep a hole. Took me 10+ years to dig outta my youthful days of Longshot parlays as an example...its a grind
You mentioned 500 being a lot of money to you. So a 1-3% bankroll play of 5-15$ would be a good starting point....
Track plays in bunches of 100....after 10 sets of 100 plays you will have a data base of 1000 plays to see if u can hit the 52.4% mark and that's if you are playing -110 lines
Everyone has rough patches. I lost 9 in a row before it happens.
Leave the prop bets and prime time games alone. Identify the good cappers here. When they’re on the other side pass on the game. Or you could just tail them.
Believe the NUMBERS. Not what you THINK.
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Leave the prop bets and prime time games alone. Identify the good cappers here. When they’re on the other side pass on the game. Or you could just tail them.
You need to ask yourself whether you are betting sports for entertainment/fun purposes or if you are using it as an investment opportunity. If it's the later I would suggest you compile a large data collection of games at least 1000 without putting any money on them to see if you are even any good at handicapping to begin with. If after a thousand games tracked you would have been down then sports gambling isn't for you and you haven't actually lost any money. If you're ahead then go forward with a bankroll and only bet1-2% of it per game.
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@LionsIn2023
You need to ask yourself whether you are betting sports for entertainment/fun purposes or if you are using it as an investment opportunity. If it's the later I would suggest you compile a large data collection of games at least 1000 without putting any money on them to see if you are even any good at handicapping to begin with. If after a thousand games tracked you would have been down then sports gambling isn't for you and you haven't actually lost any money. If you're ahead then go forward with a bankroll and only bet1-2% of it per game.
Bad streaks will happen to the best of handicappers. It's what you don't do during those streaks chasing/raising bets that will keep your bankroll intact and allow yourself to get out of them
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Bad streaks will happen to the best of handicappers. It's what you don't do during those streaks chasing/raising bets that will keep your bankroll intact and allow yourself to get out of them
If you bet a lot of games, you have to stick to the same unit sizes. A big trap I used to fall into (not nearly as much anymore) is I would fall in love with a bet and wager like 5x my normal unit size on it, or 10x, and then of course lose that game, but go 7-2 on my other 9 plays, so essentially I wipe myself out with the heavy wager.
I don't think there's anything wrong with betting a lot of games, I have been doing it like that for 30+ years, I made around 500 baseball bets this year. Covers has a decent way to track them in your contests profile if you do not want to track them yourself. Tracking is key, because otherwise you will end up lying to yourself, and every win feels like 10 wins and you're a genius lol.
You gotta learn your tendencies, like this year in baseball I re-learned that I hate betting totals, I am bad at it, and I proved it to myself again by having a really good record on sides, but I couldn't even crack 47% in totals, so I try my best to just never wager on over/unders. You gotta try to learn this stuff about yourself, because if you don't, the financial side of this hobby will eventually make you lose the ability to have the hobby at all.
The NFL season is new. Just bet within your means, bluecompass is right if you have to only bet $5 then just bet $5.
Sadly this forum isn't much in the way of positivity. Keep your head up, it will turn around. Best advice I can give you is learn what works for you (for me, no totals, and I have a crazy high winning percentage on football teasers, so I stick to that because it works for me) Also never bet an amount of money that makes it hurt if you lose, because you are going to lose. Do not hire touts. And yes, there are some good cappers here, but ultimately it is way more fun in my opinion if you make your own decisions.
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If you bet a lot of games, you have to stick to the same unit sizes. A big trap I used to fall into (not nearly as much anymore) is I would fall in love with a bet and wager like 5x my normal unit size on it, or 10x, and then of course lose that game, but go 7-2 on my other 9 plays, so essentially I wipe myself out with the heavy wager.
I don't think there's anything wrong with betting a lot of games, I have been doing it like that for 30+ years, I made around 500 baseball bets this year. Covers has a decent way to track them in your contests profile if you do not want to track them yourself. Tracking is key, because otherwise you will end up lying to yourself, and every win feels like 10 wins and you're a genius lol.
You gotta learn your tendencies, like this year in baseball I re-learned that I hate betting totals, I am bad at it, and I proved it to myself again by having a really good record on sides, but I couldn't even crack 47% in totals, so I try my best to just never wager on over/unders. You gotta try to learn this stuff about yourself, because if you don't, the financial side of this hobby will eventually make you lose the ability to have the hobby at all.
The NFL season is new. Just bet within your means, bluecompass is right if you have to only bet $5 then just bet $5.
Sadly this forum isn't much in the way of positivity. Keep your head up, it will turn around. Best advice I can give you is learn what works for you (for me, no totals, and I have a crazy high winning percentage on football teasers, so I stick to that because it works for me) Also never bet an amount of money that makes it hurt if you lose, because you are going to lose. Do not hire touts. And yes, there are some good cappers here, but ultimately it is way more fun in my opinion if you make your own decisions.
Hey, I wasn't busting your balls last night about the prop bets
Luckily I did bet them both, and got Gainwell at 11 yards, which was a push, and I lost on the Sanders one, you were right. But in my defense I was a shoestring tackle and a penalty away from hitting both
Good luck next week dubz
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@dubz4dummyz
Hey, I wasn't busting your balls last night about the prop bets
Luckily I did bet them both, and got Gainwell at 11 yards, which was a push, and I lost on the Sanders one, you were right. But in my defense I was a shoestring tackle and a penalty away from hitting both
I have been doing this since 1980. It took me a long time to find what sports I was good at and the sports that I was not. There is a lot of great information in this thread that you should read more than once and really think about it.
To give you an example more often than not I come out ahead at the end of the college football season. This year I went 10-2 the first 2 weeks and now the last 2 weeks I like you have gone 2-11. So, for the year so far, I am 12-13. It is a long road.
My feeling is that if you decide to continue you will have your good and bad weeks.
Regardless of if you pick winners or losers this is the best advice, I can give you or anyone else.
1. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
2. Learn what money management is and stick to it. If you cannot do this than I would not gamble.
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I have been doing this since 1980. It took me a long time to find what sports I was good at and the sports that I was not. There is a lot of great information in this thread that you should read more than once and really think about it.
To give you an example more often than not I come out ahead at the end of the college football season. This year I went 10-2 the first 2 weeks and now the last 2 weeks I like you have gone 2-11. So, for the year so far, I am 12-13. It is a long road.
My feeling is that if you decide to continue you will have your good and bad weeks.
Regardless of if you pick winners or losers this is the best advice, I can give you or anyone else.
1. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
2. Learn what money management is and stick to it. If you cannot do this than I would not gamble.
thank you so much JDD. you and another couple guys I really like and hell I could see us hanging out I'm Vegas one day at Red Rock where I absolutely love.
So you are right I put a huge bet on Derrick Henry over rushing yards and got killed. My losings were -5000 not -500. I get extremely attached to injuries when in reality they don't matter as much as one thinks. I saw the Bills 2 starting defensive tackles out and thought I was EINSTEIN.
Thank you so much for your input. This is a huge learning lesson early in the season. Your right there is plenty of time to go.
You think its possible to turn it around starting 2-11 right?
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@JDD
thank you so much JDD. you and another couple guys I really like and hell I could see us hanging out I'm Vegas one day at Red Rock where I absolutely love.
So you are right I put a huge bet on Derrick Henry over rushing yards and got killed. My losings were -5000 not -500. I get extremely attached to injuries when in reality they don't matter as much as one thinks. I saw the Bills 2 starting defensive tackles out and thought I was EINSTEIN.
Thank you so much for your input. This is a huge learning lesson early in the season. Your right there is plenty of time to go.
You think its possible to turn it around starting 2-11 right?
Hahaha I replied before I started reading through all the replies. Its just funny you have the exact same number of games 1000 as a data base as I said. There's some really good skilled cappers here who get it and think alike. The op definitely has a wealth of information at his hands if he chooses to take it
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@dubz4dummyz
Hahaha I replied before I started reading through all the replies. Its just funny you have the exact same number of games 1000 as a data base as I said. There's some really good skilled cappers here who get it and think alike. The op definitely has a wealth of information at his hands if he chooses to take it
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