Posted:
#26
Also like Philly, Browns, Tampa Bay and Arizona this week.
I doubt the browns will win straight up, but I like them to cover the +12
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Atlanta Falcons ML
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
What you're missing is the greed factor.
What you're missing is the greed factor.
The books do care about money. And +1500 is considered a big bet for them.
We will see. They have been generous this year letting the public win a lot, it seems. Maybe they will clean up big time this week...they usually do the week after. Expect a public blood bath this week.
Wild Azz guesses obviously:
Odds x number of tickets x average ticket $
+1500 x 2,000 x $50 = $1.5M
That's at +1500.
Per this:
https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/will-team-finish-nfl-season-undefeated-16-0-patriots-bengals-panthers-history
When Carolina was 11-0 (after the Dallas game) the odds were only +400. I doubt many people were buying high dollar futures tickets at higher odds prior to Carolina beating Dallas, NYG and NO. In reality, this prop bet is probably much less than 1M in exposure to books, which like I said is peanuts compared to the storyline and viewership that an undefeated panthers team vs. Seattle or someone in the playoffs would be. Add in merchandise (16-0 shirts/hats, etc., the NFL "limited edition 16-0 video" of the Panthers season, etc. lol). Can you imagine what an undefeated 18-0 Panthers vs. Patriots in the superbowl would command? whoa, THAT would be a storyline.
And again, what the NFL and what books want are two separate things. Even if they are in cahoots, I highly doubt the NFL is willing to give up a high drama storyline for the sake of a +400 prop bet. But that's just my POV.
Not trying to argue, it's your money. Personally, I'm done doubting these Panthers and no longer "expect" them to lose. I see absolutely no reason to back ATL here other than the contrarian "sharp" angle and I value my money over looking "sharp". If NYG couldn't get it done with Eli/OBJ I have absolutely no confidence that ATL can with Matty/JJ, whom have shown me so much less than the former. Don't let the final score fool you, remember, Carolina WAS up 35-7 against the Giants with less than a quarter and a half remaining. If that happens again, the player formerly know as Matty "ICE" won't be leading no comebacks IMO.
Again, your money, GLTU. If I bet this game I'll probably be on the other side so one of us should win. 
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
Also like I said, I believe if Carolina was going to win this game they would likely be only 6.5 favorites, not 7 point. So the spread is a major influence as well here in my decision.
Also like I said, I believe if Carolina was going to win this game they would likely be only 6.5 favorites, not 7 point. So the spread is a major influence as well here in my decision.
I could be wrong here, please don't take my word on anything. I was certain Dallas was going to beat them too, and they got blown out.
So, bet who you like. I am just taking a shot with Atlanta ML, if I lose, no big deal. I don't have to bet large on it, since the payout in a parlay will be generous.
GL2ALL
I think if you look historically, 6.5 faves are probably 50/50, if not losing more so than winning, so I disagree with the assertion that 6.5 means the favorite covers. If I don't have a bet on this game, I'm rooting for you cause honestly, I can't stand Cam Newton. I think he's a phony and his whole giving the football away seems contrived to me. I can't wait for him to (hopefully) face Seattle in the second round and get his behind pounded. lol.
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:
I think if you look historically, 6.5 faves are probably 50/50, if not losing more so than winning, so I disagree with the assertion that 6.5 means the favorite covers. If I don't have a bet on this game, I'm rooting for you cause honestly, I can't stand Cam Newton. I think he's a phony and his whole giving the football away seems contrived to me. I can't wait for him to (hopefully) face Seattle in the second round and get his behind pounded. lol.
Funny how people can't stand any athlete who is exceptional and just likes going out and having fun. Sit back and enjoy this guy i really think in the long run he is going to be one of the best of all time. When was the last time you saw a QB score a touchdown on a back flip. Like i said just sit back and enjoy this kid. Everyone think he is showing up his opponents he is just having fun.
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by lookingtowin:
Funny how people can't stand any athlete who is exceptional and just likes going out and having fun. Sit back and enjoy this guy i really think in the long run he is going to be one of the best of all time. When was the last time you saw a QB score a touchdown on a back flip. Like i said just sit back and enjoy this kid. Everyone think he is showing up his opponents he is just having fun.
Funny how people can't stand any athlete who is exceptional and just likes going out and having fun. Sit back and enjoy this guy i really think in the long run he is going to be one of the best of all time. When was the last time you saw a QB score a touchdown on a back flip. Like i said just sit back and enjoy this kid. Everyone think he is showing up his opponents he is just having fun.
Actually, my disdain for him goes back to his Auburn days. He's a dishonest guy in my eyes, plain and simple.
Scoring a TD on a backflip means absolutely zilch to me and doesn't curry favor in my eyes, no matter who you are.
Also, I never said I thought he shows up his opponents. He a talent, no doubt about that and I have nothing bad to say about the things he does on the field in the confines of football, he's not a dirty player by any means. But again, talent isn't the be all end all on whether I like a guy or not. I'd take Russell Wilson over him any day.
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Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:
If Carolina are going to lose the line will reflect it. Hell they may even go in as underdogs or slight faves against Tampa Bay given they will have top seed wrapped up.
No chance. Rivera doesnt believe in sitting players. He hast past history with this as well.
If Carolina are going to lose the line will reflect it. Hell they may even go in as underdogs or slight faves against Tampa Bay given they will have top seed wrapped up.
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:
I think if you look historically, 6.5 faves are probably 50/50, if not losing more so than winning, so I disagree with the assertion that 6.5 means the favorite covers. If I don't have a bet on this game, I'm rooting for you cause honestly, I can't stand Cam Newton. I think he's a phony and his whole giving the football away seems contrived to me. I can't wait for him to (hopefully) face Seattle in the second round and get his behind pounded. lol.
I'm not talking about the cover. Usually when a fav is 6.5 they don't cover. They simply win SU.
I am talking ML here. Since Carolina is 7 pt dogs, they likely will lose this game outright. If they were -6.5 they would win, but not cover.
That's how the books get the public money, the public likes to bet spreads when they are low. In this case, since the spread is -7, the public will be more action on the ML.
You can see just by this thread, the majority are predicting Panthers.
Best of Luck to you as well. Like I said, no big deal if I lose............... I never bet big.
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Posted:
#35
Used to bet big,and got burned almost every time, so finally learned my lesson, and MM that I have to bet small, no matter how sure I am. Because I'm not always right. And one big bet leads to another, and another and another. So that's one reason I don't have a large bankroll today is because of poor MM. Just need to work up, stick to the small, bets and I'll never go to $0
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
If you jump big leads because you are clearly the better team, then your opponent goes all in and you take a few gears back, it doesn't mean you got a lucky win.
If almost no one can beat you with his standard playbook/gameplan, you are a good team.
The only game they really needed to win from behind was at Seattle and they did that despite two turnovers. Winning at Seattle cannot be lucky.
If you jump big leads because you are clearly the better team, then your opponent goes all in and you take a few gears back, it doesn't mean you got a lucky win.
If almost no one can beat you with his standard playbook/gameplan, you are a good team.
The only game they really needed to win from behind was at Seattle and they did that despite two turnovers. Winning at Seattle cannot be lucky.
They won in Seattle before Seattle got hot.if they were playing Seattle this weekend the result most likely would be different.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
What you're missing is the greed factor.
What you're missing is the greed factor.
The books do care about money. And +1500 is considered a big bet for them.
We will see. They have been generous this year letting the public win a lot, it seems. Maybe they will clean up big time this week...they usually do the week after. Expect a public blood bath this week.
This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. IF (which is a huge if because nothing of this magnitude/importance would be fixed) the NFL wanted a fix you think they would want the Falcons to beat Carolina right now because it saves Vegas a several thousand dollars in +1500 panthers undefeated props.
You are extremely obtuse. Like really dumb. Even if LV sportsbooks collectively lost a million on this prop (its definitely no where near that) it still would not even scratch the surface of the amount of advertising $$, exposure, and general interest the NFL and LV sportsbooks would have for a Panthers undefeated season. Its not even close. The fix (again if there is one, which there is not) would be on the Panthers to continue winning and go into the playoffs undefeated.
Your also probably one of the people who think the Bama or Clemson would be a 10 point favorite against the Browns on a neutral field 
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Posted:
#41
I am 100 percent with MGMPROFITS HERE. ATLANTA +6.5, IN A 10 POINT TEASER WITH DETRIOT PICK, AND JETS +13.5. ML,WELL PUT A TAD ON THAT TOO. SET UP FOR ATLANTA HERE. WHEN YOU HAVE WATCHED NFL SINCE YA TITTLE, SONNY JURGENSON, BART STARR, AND FRAN TARKINGTON, WELL YOU JUST HAVE A FEELING.
0
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by mgmprofits:
Also like I said, I believe if Carolina was going to win this game they would likely be only 6.5 favorites, not 7 point. So the spread is a major influence as well here in my decision.
Also like I said, I believe if Carolina was going to win this game they would likely be only 6.5 favorites, not 7 point. So the spread is a major influence as well here in my decision.
I could be wrong here, please don't take my word on anything. I was certain Dallas was going to beat them too, and they got blown out.
So, bet who you like. I am just taking a shot with Atlanta ML, if I lose, no big deal. I don't have to bet large on it, since the payout in a parlay will be generous.
GL2ALL
Excellent call bud. One of the few to call an outright winner. Congrats on your bet. TBH, I was rooting for you (and everyone else who took ATL) as I ended up passing on the game. Had a stinking feeling it would go under but couldn't pull the trigger.
0
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:
Excellent call bud. One of the few to call an outright winner. Congrats on your bet. TBH, I was rooting for you (and everyone else who took ATL) as I ended up passing on the game. Had a stinking feeling it would go under but couldn't pull the trigger.
Thanks bro
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Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by worthbob:
I am 100 percent with MGMPROFITS HERE. ATLANTA +6.5, IN A 10 POINT TEASER WITH DETRIOT PICK, AND JETS +13.5. ML,WELL PUT A TAD ON THAT TOO. SET UP FOR ATLANTA HERE. WHEN YOU HAVE WATCHED NFL SINCE YA TITTLE, SONNY JURGENSON, BART STARR, AND FRAN TARKINGTON, WELL YOU JUST HAVE A FEELING.
I am 100 percent with MGMPROFITS HERE. ATLANTA +6.5, IN A 10 POINT TEASER WITH DETRIOT PICK, AND JETS +13.5. ML,WELL PUT A TAD ON THAT TOO. SET UP FOR ATLANTA HERE. WHEN YOU HAVE WATCHED NFL SINCE YA TITTLE, SONNY JURGENSON, BART STARR, AND FRAN TARKINGTON, WELL YOU JUST HAVE A FEELING.
Funny to see all the bookies who came into this thread trying to scare people away from the atlanta bet. You knew it would happen. That's why I don't post too often.0
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by pasqualie1980:
congrats on the win, makes up for chasing long odds and weeks of losses in picks you posted
congrats on the win, makes up for chasing long odds and weeks of losses in picks you posted
This entire season i've posted only 3 NFL parlays...and I won 2 of them. One of the winning parlays had an underdog ML play in it, so I think I'm way ahead with the NFL plays I've posted
Now an easy 5 unit winner with Minnesota -6.5 tonight. I knew they would win by more than 20 pts...I wish I could of gotten alternate line to post, was going to ask if anyone could bet minny -17.5 as I knew Giants would bust the teaser tonight
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