Are The Lions A Huge Public Dog This Week

The Detroit Lions are my favorite team so yes, I am their fanboy. I noticed during the Chiefs/Jags game that the Chiefs were listed as -1 favorites versus the Lions and shortly after the game the line soared up to Chiefs -2 1/2. 

Considering what has transpired (a very public loss to the Jags), I am speculating that the Lions, in spite of the line movement, is getting the biggest share of the money (handle) and it isn't very close. 

The line movement's standard interpretation is that the Chiefs are getting the money but this could be a case of 'perception/deception' (thanks DK).

In spite of my love for my team and their style of play, I am leaning heavily towards the Chiefs. 
Any insights or comments on this game??? 

@Buffalobob89074

 Detroit or nothing for me. KC just battled in a very physical game against Jax and now has to face Detroit off a shorter week. Detroit is firing on all cylinders and will play very aggressively knowing that they have to keep stacking wins to keep their division title. KC is on a slow decline and I think that’s pretty obvious. Detroit is the best overall team in football imo. 

I don’t see a “public” side in this game. Books will take a ton of action on each side. There will be people that bet Detroit for obvious reasons, and then others who bet the Chiefs because “you can’t bet against Mahomes in Arrowhead”.

Looks like sharp money is on KC early which isn’t surprising given KCs performance at home over the years. As a short 1-1.5 point favorite it’s never a bad bet. The line has been driven to 2.5 now and I would imagine if it even touches 3 sharp money will hammer it immediately back down to 2.5 or 2. 

Detroit to me is the real deal. They have all of the pieces and a highly motivating coach to take them all the way. This game is a chance for them to prove themselves in a big way. That’s my two cents. GL Bob.

@Buffalobob89074

 Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed are out this weekend. Both starting Cornerbacks. Reed was playing lights out.

Detroit will certainly have to win this game on offense. Hutchinson should help to slow Mahomes down but he’ll get his numbers for sure. Luckily for Detroit they have the offense to win in a shootout. The typical symptoms will be the deciding factor…turnovers, penalties, missed fg, etc…

Do you see this line touching 3 at any point?

@brn2loslive2win

Okay so it is Detroit all the way. I can understand that take though it isn't mine for now. BOL

@TJZags598

Valuable information for sure especially when it comes to the Chiefs' aerial attack in KC. Rice won't be back until week #7 and Worthy isn't 100%.
Talk about a marquee matchup, will the NFL push this Romeo and Juliet (Kelce/Swift) story-line again? 

The books would rather chew glass than move that # to 3. 

@Biscuiteater1

 No doubt.

Also like Detroit until they stop being Detroit.

I think its interesting that KC is a very good teams and finally being valued as they should.....aka public things they're an OK team.

I auto bet Detroit every week, as part of my auto pick bets. No handicapping involved, just bet Detroit on the pts line, blind.

Now when i handicap the game, I am certainly not biased.

Detroit has played 3 teams against defenses without a "heartbeat": Chicago, Baltimore, Cincinatti; 3 of my worst 4 defenses.

They played Cleveland who is a solid defense; but Cleveland literally gave them the game with 3 turnovers, all 3 in their own end. Detroit started drives at the Cleveland 5 ( OMG), the Cleveland 20, and the Cleveland 46, that led to 17 give away pts. Cleveland literally had 9 of 14 drives end with 3 plays or less (one was 4 on penalty).

The 1 game Detroit had trouble against was Green Bay; No surprise, green Bay is a balanced team. I have KC Defense rated at 84.37 & Green Bay 82.86. So similar defenses.

I believe 4 factors determine outcomes:

1-Coaching

2-Spot

3--Injuries

4Strentgth of schedule.

I am not overly impressed with Detroit's Offensive numbers this year based on the really poor opponents they have played. I am looking forward to see how they perform against a top notch team, and staff.

@TJZags598

 Do you mind sharing your other auto bets? If there is any?

They did have trouble with the Packers mainly they could not generate a ground game but they did not have trouble getting into scoring position though but went 1 - 4 from inside the 20 and 0 - 1 goal to goal. Also since that time the Pack in their last 2 home games have lost to the Browns and managed a push with Dallas. Lions or nothing for this Ole boy. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Definitely.

Here is my process: I track TONS of data, and determine my Autobest during the offseason. They come out of a separate budget from my handicapping budget, separate accounts. As in the name, i bet these bets blindly, based on analytics, and watching the game. and superstition.

I will give you some insight: & I kid thee not. You can back test anything i say:

Detroit every week. ( They are number 11 in NFL rotation  Chinese culture, very luck ying/yang. a good friend told me about 11 and the power of it a long time ago.)

Minnesota every week. ( Again Number 21 in NFL rotation. Very lucky in American Culture.:

I bet on the Ravens first half, against the ravens second half. John Harbaugh thing.

I bet against the Jets first half every game; they are the lowest scoring team in the NFL the last 25 years.

I bet under in Giants games all the time, as they are the Giants, and have a history of not scoring

I bet Under all the time in  Broncos, Texans games, as again, these guys have a history of low scoring games.

I bet the Steelers on ML as underdogs.

I bet Steeler on Points line.

I bet Arizonia as a dog, against as a favorite;

I bet Josh Allen first TD every week.

I bet David Montgomery first TD every week.

I also Bet Brand Auiyk first TD every week ( he had been a cash machine on 49ers).

I gave some insight; Now, you may say I am crazy, but i stick to stead fast rules. every week those bets go in. I am not looking at week to week performance; i am looking seasonal performance.

That being said, most weeks are winners, thanks to betting against teams like the Jets, Giants, on the Steelers, on Detroit, on Minny.

I also handicap games. based off an analytical model.

Here goes my take on purely analytics for Detroit Game:

Detroit has outperformed their opponents on Offense by 129.3%

Kansas City has outperformed their opponents on Offense by 110.3%

Detroit defense has outperformed their opponents by 101.5%

Kansas City has outperformed their opponents  by 89.4%

Detroit has played teams rated:

Offense:65.29

Defense:67.86

Kansas City has played teams rated:

Offense:58.74

Defense:81.65

My model, when factoring in just data, SOS, and performance:

Detroit:28.97

KC:23.25

Without factoring in SOS, the score projections are:

Detroit 27.55

KC 22.40

But, alas, the game isnt played with data.

I was pissed last weekend. Seattle should have crushed Tampa Bay. I got lazy, Seattle was missing 2 starting DB's, and it showed. That's what makes handicapping so hard.

Both teams beat nobody

does sharp money mean big bets? cuz thats what it seems like now the way everyone is using that term 

Lions have been a good road team under Dan Campbell , public or not. They have played fearless in KC twice both close games and going 1-1. It's possible this may be the most public they've ever been as a dog. I will have a better opinion on this game later in the week.