2022 SEASON LONG/WEEKLY PLAYER PROP FUTURES 💰💰 and FANTASY FOOTBALL🏆🏆 PREDICTIONS

What's up FAMILY 

BEST of HEALTH,WEALTH, HAPPINESS, BLESSINGS, and LUCK to ALL!!

Strongly believe investing in season long  and weekly player props is "much easier" than beating the sharp oddsmakers against the spread or game total....

In this thread I will post all my skill player statistical forecasts    along with season long player prop futures investments....

Please keep in mind the forecasts will change throughout the preseason leading up to week 1 kickoff ...

My fantasy football drafts are August 28th and September 2nd ...Both Leagues are full PPR , 12 owners ...The 2nd draft features 2 starters at flex ....This thread will include my rankings , strategies,  and complete draft results 

Please feel free to ask or discuss any player here in this thread 

Anyways 

Enough RAMBLING 

Let's get to GAMBLING 

GABE DAVIS BUFFALO BILLS OVER 799.5 RECIEVING YARDS -125 ( BetMGM)  *must play week 1 for wager to be valid 

 $1000/$800. ( To WIN 4 Units)

Nice value wirh several other books having Davis at OVER 875.5 ....

This is currently my favorite player prop on the board ..

Gabe AKA Mr. Perimeter is fresh off one of the greatest recieving playoff games in NFL history ( 8 catches 201 yards 4 TD )  ...With Manny Sanders and Beasley gone DAVIS should catch at least 20+ more passes than he did last year ...My current predictions are anywhere from 55-70+ catches for 885-1120+ yards....Davis comes into camp In the best shape of his life, bulking up with 10+ lbs of added muscle ....Never underestimate a young WR playing for a mega contract in a great passing offense. ( This will be Gabe's 3rd NFL season ) 

AJ DILLON OVER 5.5 RUSHING TD -120 

$420/350.  1.75 UNITS 

AJ DILLION TO LEAD LEAGUE IN RUSHING TD +4000.   ( Fun longshot wager ) 

$50/2000 

 Aaron Jones should be heavily involved in the passing game ( he sure was when D Adams was out of the lineup last year  ) , would imagine Dillion will see a steady increase in carries as the season goes on ...Dillon is a monster and should recieve most of the touches inside the 5 yard line ...

Don't laugh but MADDEN 22 had Dillion scoring 9+ TDS in 2023 in 62%+ of the franchise simulations ....

QUARTERBACKS. ( Fantasy Football ) 

RULE #1

NEVER , NEVER , NEVER , NEVER SELECT a QB in the FIRST 2 ROUNDS ( Even drafting a QB in the 3rd round is possibly a stretch..

..........Currently based on Average Draft position, and the 47+ mock drafts I've already done,,QB 1 is JOSH ALLEN who has been selected from picks 13-22 overall  ( 2nd round

..MAHOMES and HERBERT are usually 3rd rounders.....While all 3 should have very good seasons , I'd much rather Draft  FLEX( RB/WR/TE) players early.....If anyone besides those 3 goes before the 4th round someone messed up IMO ...

TIPS 

TIP #1 =  HOLD OFF on a QB as LONG as you can!!!

KEEP IN MIND AARON RODGERS is currently being drafted as QB# 11 TOM BRADY is QB #10 ...Both usually go in the 7th-9th rounds ......Why rush on QB ???? So many solid ones all the way down the board past the half way point of the draft .. 

TIP #2 .  If you wait until the 10th+ round to take a QB , taking 3 of them is a good idea ( Rounds 10-13)   .Odds are at least one of them will end up being a TOP 10 QB ... Obviously You'll  already be deep at RB and WR ( Hopefully have a solid TE as well ) ....

TIP #3.  If you take a QB in rounds 3-6 I'd recommend you hold off until rounds 12-15 to take your 2nd one....Only need 2 in this scenario....

TIP 4.  If you can package your backup qb in a 2 for 1 trade during the season for a  decent flex player who you might start , do it immediately!!!  You'll be able to find another spot starter through free agency.   

* average Draft position and my current rankings to follow 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Good luck this season my brother from another mother but same year brother!! 

Good info and thank you for sharing your thoughts. 

@LoveCFB1_

 Appreciate you reading Brother....Let's win our leagues this season ...Let me know when your draft(s) are 

@insatiable

Thank you my brother from another mother but same year ...May the be your best season to date !!! 

@boro33

 Appreciate you reading...Have a FANTASTIC weekend !!! 

@DoubleUp4Life

 League this year is 2 - 12 team conferences. 

 The drafts will be held on Monday August 29 

Looking forward to your rankings and advise 

Current QB AVERAGE DRAFT POSISTIONS 

( Complied from 6 different drafting/mock fantasy apps ) 

12 team league 

These are NOT my rankings 

1. Josh Allen  2nd round 

2. Mahones 3rd round 

3  Herbert.   3rd 

4. L Jackson  4th-5th 

5. Burrow  5th

6. Murray.  5th 

7  Dak Prescott  6th 

8  Hurts  6th

9. R Wilson  7th 

10 Brady 8th 

11  Rodgers 8-9th 

12. Stafford  8th 

13  Lance  9th 

14  Carr. 9th-10th 

15. Cousins 9th-10th 

16.  Tua  11th 

17. Fields  11th 

18  Lawrence  11th 

19. Ryan  12th

20  Tannehill 12th

21  Watson 13th 

22  Winston  13th 

23  M Jones  13th 

24. Z Wilson. 14-15th 

25  Wentz  15th

26  Mills.  15-16

27. Goff. 15-16:

28  D Jones  16th 

29  Marroita. 16/UD

30. B Mayfield   UD 

31  Trubisky  UD 

32.  Lock. UD 

My current rankings 

                Round ( Where  I Might take him ) 

BOLD are players I am targeting 

1. Allen.     3 

2  Mahomes 3-4 

3  Herbert. 3-4 

4  Lamar  4-5 

5 Burrow. 5 

6. Hurts.   6 

7.  Dak.    7-8

8. Brady.   8 

9  Rodgers  8-9

10  R Wilson  8-9 

11. Murray.   Do NOT draft 

12  Carr.  9-10 

13  Stafford. 10 

14.  Cousins  10-11 

15.  Tua. 11 

16.   Winston 12 

17.  Lance.  12 

18.  Ryan  12-13 

19.  M Jones  13 

20  D Jones 14-16  

21.  Fields. Do NOT draft 

22. Watson  14  

23  Marriota  15-16 

24.  Lawrence 15-16 

25  Goff.   16

26.  Trubisky. 16  FA 

27.  Wentz.  FA 

28.  Mills  FA 

29.  Tannehill. FA 

30.  Z Wilson  FA 

That sounds really cool ...

Please tell me more about it ...Is it basically 2 separate drafts ??? Where 12 owners are in one hypothetical conference and 12 in another??? 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Exactly!! 2 separate drafts. Like I said, last year was my first year ever doing fantasy football. I followed much of your advice with a second place finish. Should have been first… 

Watching football on Sunday is so much more fun being in a fantasy league!! 

I've done roughly 500 money league drafts so far. Everything from micro stakes to nose bleeds and in between. I'm not drafting too many qb's early. Hard fading Murray and Lance. Trying to get some ownership among the rest. At the highest levels the top 10 qb order at the moment.

1. Allen

2. Herbert

3. Jackson

4. Mahomes

5. Murray

6. Hurts

7. Burrow

8. Lance

9. Wilson

10. Brady

@CaseyMcGehee

 Really appreciate you posting above ...Shocked Lance is going before Wilson, Brady , or even Rodgers ....

Do you have any pay leagues you can recommend online??  Looking for another full season league , not into daily fantasy ...

For best ball Underdog Fantasy is best. Relatively low rake, deposit bonus but its a low limit. Great for low risk high return type of lineups. They also had some high roller ones but don't have any up at the moment. Agree Lance shouldn't be going above any of those guys. I have him at qb 12-13 so I can't justify drafting him. You get a good amount of casuals on there too. 

@CaseyMcGehee

 Appreciate the tip on the best ball site...Was looking for something low risk , sounds perfect...Already spending a bunch on 4 teams in 2 drafts ( my son and I) ...

I'm often wrong on young qbs , Lance will probably out perform his ADP and prove me wrong ....

@DoubleUp4Life

  Have another great season DU4L

Adding another $1000 to win $800 on GABE DAVIS over 799.5 ...

@DoubleUp4Life

 I like that bet! 
are you going to go after him hard in the draft?

@DoubleUp4Life

 what about crowder hurting Gabs yards?

He'll likely be a backup to Isaiah McKenzie in the slot ..McKenzie had a fantastic camp , Allen and rhe staff have commented that McKenzie had the best camp of any of the wrs ....Crowder played yesterday with all the 2nd stringers in the preseason game while all the starters sat the game out ..

..Diggs and Davis will start on the outside....

I’ve won several big money fantasy leagues ($1000) entry.. never take a WB before 5 th round and mostly 8-9 th round.. one year I got Russell Wilson ( the year he ran for 800 yards) that late.. RB’s in first few rounds.. maybe a reliable WR… 

Main thing is look forward not backward and what teams have great offenses, bad defenses 

If anyone has an opening in a high dollar league let me know. 

I think you’re underestimating Cousins.. O’Connell’s going to open it up 

Lance is being way over drafted also

My player prop.. Tanneyhill under 3600 yards.. no receivers at all, team is in trouble.. 

Etienne over total yards.. good fantasy RB too to pick up 4 th round

Probably not since half the owners in my leagues are Buffalo Homers who will likely draft him way earlier than he should  go ...

I'm interested in MCKENZIE in the later rounds , think he is a big upgrade in quickness over Beasley In the slot....He was lethal in that 2nd Patriots game when the BILLS featured him.....

Sorry for the delay posting my RB/WR/TE rankings ...Should have RB'S up by Tuesday.( working on them daily )