Posted:
#26
Cool.
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2015 NFL playoff thread...
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Going from +105 at +6.5 to +7 at -110 isn't BUYING POINTS.
You are in effect SELLING points to get the +6.5 at + juice simply because the site is offering it. The standard line is +7 -110 and you move from there.
5Dimes is famous for putting up lines outside of the -110 range on the cover page of their betting lines page. It doesn't mean people are buying points when they move off 5 Dimes' proposed number.
Train is correct.
Yes, but you aren't going to find that half point from +6.5 to +7 for 15 cents.
Lets talk real world...
That half point is almost always 20 to 25 cents. And in the case that I posted the 6.5, it is a reduced juice market. A 10 cent market vs a 20 cent market on the +7.
I try to make it simple when I post plays here - with lines that everyone can get. So if I post a +7 line that is overpriced vs a 6.5 line that is cheap, I am doing a disservice just to protect a pick for my covers reputation or whatever.
If I personally had the choice of taking Det +6.5 -100 or Det +7 -125 I would take the +6.5 -100.
Now I am absolutely sure that all of this talk almost guarantees that the Cowboys will win by exactly 7.....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
For the purposes of time, this was posted by "theshallowcross" in another thread.
For the purposes of time, this was posted by "theshallowcross" in another thread.
It is a start to why I like the Colts. Not the only reasons, but I agree with this whole post....
You must be a Bengals fan? Lamur and Maualuga are nothing more than JAGs and Jeremy Hill, while good, doesnt make up for the inept Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton w/out AJ Green is one of the worst QB's in the league.
The Colts had over 500 yards of offense in the first game and won the first down battle 27 - 8. The Bengals had 135 TOTAL yards in that game and the Colts turned the ball over twice, Cincy turned it over 0 times and still got blown out.
The bengals have also had to play what amounts to 4 very physical games over the past month and needed to win 3 of the 4 to even make the playoffs. Let down game? While the Colts have been on auto-pilot for the past 3 weeks after wrapping up their division early.
But by all means, take Cincy if you like. Myself on the other hand, I feel confident fading this Bengals team and Andy Dalton on the road.
That 'write-up' is forgetting one key aspect about that game.
Ahmad Bradshaw isn't mentioned and he accounted for almost 100 yards of offense.
Colts have absolutely no running game and Bradshaw is long gone.
This a one-dimensional team, a great one-dimensional team, but one-dimensional at that.
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Yes, but you aren't going to find that half point from +6.5 to +7 for 15 cents.
Lets talk real world...
That half point is almost always 20 to 25 cents. And in the case that I posted the 6.5, it is a reduced juice market. A 10 cent market vs a 20 cent market on the +7.
I try to make it simple when I post plays here - with lines that everyone can get. So if I post a +7 line that is overpriced vs a 6.5 line that is cheap, I am doing a disservice just to protect a pick for my covers reputation or whatever.
If I personally had the choice of taking Det +6.5 -100 or Det +7 -125 I would take the +6.5 -100.
Now I am absolutely sure that all of this talk almost guarantees that the Cowboys will win by exactly 7.....
I didn't see that line at -7 -125. I saw it at -7 -110 and wrote from there but I believe those were your lines.
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Hello covers degenerates.
2015 is here. Hope it is peaceful and prosperous to everyone.
Here are my picks I will be betting for wildcard weekend: (all current lines as of posting at 5d)
1. AZ +6.5 +105 (2 units)
2. Pitt -3 -115 (1.5 units)
3. Colts -3.5 -100 (3 units)
4. Lions +6.5 +100 (2 units)
I am on vaca with the family until Monday, so wont be around much to discuss, but will try to respond if possible.
GL all.
0-2 yesterday, 2-0 today and won some money overall.
That Detroit game was razor thin.
On to next week.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:
He was already called out by Eagles fans a few weeks ago when Philly lost and he was cheering in Jerry Jones' box at the Linc.
Christie says he a longtime Cowboys fan, since his youth, and is unapologetic about his fandom.
I shudder to think some see him as a future President.
You know if he runs for President you will see those clips of his jigglyness all over the place.
I can never understand a grown man acting like that unless he had money on it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#40
2-2, up 1.275 units
Finally back from family vaca. The best days of family vaca are the day you get there, and the day you leave.
Picks for this weekend. All current bettable lines.
1. Balt +6.5 +105 (1.5 units)
2. Sea -11 -102 (3 units)
3. Packers -5.5 -105 (2 units)
4. Colts +7 -108 (3 units)
I am here to discuss, and should be around for the weekend.
Peace.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#41
Talk to me about the Colts. They have the worst running attack left in the playoffs and Denver gave up the 2nd fewest rushing ypg (detroit). Obviously some of that was due to Denver being up most games and teams passing....Is this a partial fade of Manning and his ever weakening arm?
Any thoughts on totals? Only game I like Over is Balt/NE. I see no reason both teams cant hit mid 20s. I think either Seattle wins 31-3 or is a 20-13 game. With Rodgers hurt, I expect an extra dose of Lacy, which will mean far fewer plays than normal, and the cold will slow the Boys down somewhat. I also think CJ Anderson, much like Lacy, will see more action than normal as Peyton isnt the qb he was 5 years ago. If Luck cant hit TY deep, the Colts are gonna have problems moving the ball all game without a strong running attack
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Posted:
#43
Was listening to a psychological handicapper on the radio today (a professional one). He was trying to find psychological/motivational angles for these playoff games where everyone assumes that motivation is the same.
His picks:
Patriots to cover: reason being that the Pats are what he calls a favorite underdog. What he means by that is that they are a team that has an underdogs mentality (and edge) despite being favorites. All the talk is about the Ravens and how well they matchup against NE and are in a great position to upset them. Add to this the fact that the Ravens have gotten the better of the Pats in the playoffs and you have the makings of a "favored dog." He think NE covers this line. His son, however, who is also a pro capper disagrees.
Panthers to cover: reason being that they are good road dogs (as exhibited by their recent wins) and know that they have to be very focused this week in practice (being extra astute and intense) to pull off the upset. He also thinks the line is a bit inflated.
GB to cover: Dallas off an emotional win (when they should have lost) will be a bit flat in this one, as they won't be able to muster the focus and intensity they need to beat a good Packers team.
Denver to cover: Because they have been keen on getting their run game going (something Maning teams in the past have not done) and this will pay off against against a weak run defense in Indi, keeping Luck off the field with long sustained drives.
I don't agree with all his picks but I do like the favored underdog angle a lot.
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
2-2, up 1.275 units
Finally back from family vaca. The best days of family vaca are the day you get there, and the day you leave.
Picks for this weekend. All current bettable lines.
1. Balt +6.5 +105 (1.5 units)
2. Sea -11 -102 (3 units)
3. Packers -5.5 -105 (2 units)
4. Colts +7 -108 (3 units)
I am here to discuss, and should be around for the weekend.
Peace.
GL Van
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Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Talk to me about the Colts. They have the worst running attack left in the playoffs and Denver gave up the 2nd fewest rushing ypg (detroit). Obviously some of that was due to Denver being up most games and teams passing....Is this a partial fade of Manning and his ever weakening arm?
Any thoughts on totals? Only game I like Over is Balt/NE. I see no reason both teams cant hit mid 20s. I think either Seattle wins 31-3 or is a 20-13 game. With Rodgers hurt, I expect an extra dose of Lacy, which will mean far fewer plays than normal, and the cold will slow the Boys down somewhat. I also think CJ Anderson, much like Lacy, will see more action than normal as Peyton isnt the qb he was 5 years ago. If Luck cant hit TY deep, the Colts are gonna have problems moving the ball all game without a strong running attack
Lots of reasons point me to the Colts. I use a lot of adjusted stats - and I can make a decent argument that their rushing stats are not that bad. They are never going to win a game on the ground - but I don't think they need to here. The pick is mostly that Denvers offense wont score over 21 in this game. This total shift in philosophy - and Manning not being able to really throw the ball - has me very skeptical. The Bengals game was a great example of it.
7 points is a lot in the NFL and a playoff game. Just have lots of stats that I can make a case with - and my gut is screaming Colts.
I don't normally bet totals - but I did make one of the few (I think 4 total this year) bets on the Colts / Broncos under. I couldn't argue with your analysis of Pats / Ravens - should be high scoring - unless Flacco is sitting on his behind all day because he is getting pressured. That is the key to this one I feel. Could see the Pack / Cowboys going under, and something tells me Seattle is going to put up a big number on Carolina.
Anyway - no total betting for me except for a small play on Colts Broncos under. Very small.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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