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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    2015 NFL playoff thread...

    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
    vanzack
    mafia13
    smarterthanyou
    HoyasSax
    TRAIN69
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 47264
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    123 ... 91011 Next Last»
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 9:39 PM ET #1

    Hello covers degenerates.

    2015 is here.  Hope it is peaceful and prosperous to everyone.

    Here are my picks I will be betting for wildcard weekend: (all current lines as of posting at 5d)

    1.  AZ +6.5 +105  (2 units)
    2.  Pitt -3 -115  (1.5 units)
    3.  Colts -3.5 -100 (3 units)
    4.  Lions +6.5 +100 (2 units)

    I am on vaca with the family until Monday, so wont be around much to discuss, but will try to respond if possible.

    GL all.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hello covers degenerates.

    2015 is here.  Hope it is peaceful and prosperous to everyone.

    Here are my picks I will be betting for wildcard weekend: (all current lines as of posting at 5d)

    1.  AZ +6.5 +105  (2 units)
    2.  Pitt -3 -115  (1.5 units)
    3.  Colts -3.5 -100 (3 units)
    4.  Lions +6.5 +100 (2 units)

    I am on vaca with the family until Monday, so wont be around much to discuss, but will try to respond if possible.

    GL all.

     
    mafia13
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 9:42 PM ET #2

    nice card. GL Van    Why all the love for Indy?
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    nice card. GL Van    Why all the love for Indy?
     
    smarterthanyou
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 9:44 PM ET #3

    how did you finish in your contest?
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    how did you finish in your contest?
     
    HoyasSax
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 9:49 PM ET #4

    Kind of surprised by the colts love.  I'm on bengals, lions and cards 
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    Kind of surprised by the colts love.  I'm on bengals, lions and cards 
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 9:58 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:

    how did you finish in your contest?

    2013 contest:  52-30-3
    2014 playoffs:  8-2-1
    2014 contest:  51-34

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:

    how did you finish in your contest?

    2013 contest:  52-30-3
    2014 playoffs:  8-2-1
    2014 contest:  51-34

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:03 PM ET #6

    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.

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    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.

     
    HoyasSax
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:07 PM ET #7

    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u
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    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:10 PM ET #8

    good luck man
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    good luck man
     
    HoyasSax
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:12 PM ET #9

    Bol- appreciate the sharing. 
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    Bol- appreciate the sharing. 
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:19 PM ET #10

    Will post tomorrow about Colts and other questions....

    Sorry - just busy tonight...

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Will post tomorrow about Colts and other questions....

    Sorry - just busy tonight...

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:24 PM ET #11

    For the purposes of time, this was posted by "theshallowcross" in another thread.

    It is a start to why I like the Colts.  Not the only reasons, but I agree with this whole post....

    You must be a Bengals fan? Lamur and Maualuga are nothing more than JAGs and Jeremy Hill, while good, doesnt make up for the inept Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton w/out AJ Green is one of the worst QB's in the league. 

    The Colts had over 500 yards of offense in the first game and won the first down battle 27 - 8. The Bengals had 135 TOTAL yards in that game and the Colts turned the ball over twice, Cincy turned it over 0 times and still got blown out. 

    The bengals have also had to play what amounts to 4 very physical games over the past month and needed to win 3 of the 4 to even make the playoffs. Let down game? While the Colts have been on auto-pilot for the past 3 weeks after wrapping up their division early. 

    But by all means, take Cincy if you like. Myself on the other hand, I feel confident fading this Bengals team and Andy Dalton on the road.
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    For the purposes of time, this was posted by "theshallowcross" in another thread.

    It is a start to why I like the Colts.  Not the only reasons, but I agree with this whole post....

    You must be a Bengals fan? Lamur and Maualuga are nothing more than JAGs and Jeremy Hill, while good, doesnt make up for the inept Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton w/out AJ Green is one of the worst QB's in the league. 

    The Colts had over 500 yards of offense in the first game and won the first down battle 27 - 8. The Bengals had 135 TOTAL yards in that game and the Colts turned the ball over twice, Cincy turned it over 0 times and still got blown out. 

    The bengals have also had to play what amounts to 4 very physical games over the past month and needed to win 3 of the 4 to even make the playoffs. Let down game? While the Colts have been on auto-pilot for the past 3 weeks after wrapping up their division early. 

    But by all means, take Cincy if you like. Myself on the other hand, I feel confident fading this Bengals team and Andy Dalton on the road.
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 10:39 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u
    Whatever floats your boat man. 6.5 +100 isnt nearly as valuable as +7 -110 . Most book have alternate lines, so yes....
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u
    Whatever floats your boat man. 6.5 +100 isnt nearly as valuable as +7 -110 . Most book have alternate lines, so yes....
     
    Kurshka
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 11:29 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.



    Its already been documented before train. You get better lines than anybody else. Why do you always challenge people? You just make a fool of yourself. Can you enlighten me and tell me about all the books you bet with. Its no secret you live in the USA.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.



    Its already been documented before train. You get better lines than anybody else. Why do you always challenge people? You just make a fool of yourself. Can you enlighten me and tell me about all the books you bet with. Its no secret you live in the USA.  
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2015 - 11:33 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:



    Its already been documented before train. You get better lines than anybody else. Why do you always challenge people? You just make a fool of yourself. Can you enlighten me and tell me about all the books you bet with. Its no secret you live in the USA.  
    Huh? 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:



    Its already been documented before train. You get better lines than anybody else. Why do you always challenge people? You just make a fool of yourself. Can you enlighten me and tell me about all the books you bet with. Its no secret you live in the USA.  
    Huh? 
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 12:44 AM ET #15

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    ravenzone
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 4:05 AM ET #16

    Zack............I have been around for quite a while.  It still amazes me that gamblers who should be more focused on banking are more concerned about your profile pic............I dont give a flying F what you look like, but newbies seem to be.  I enjoy your insight and and outlook on games...bottom line!!!  Please do not entertain them.........WTF?  I enjoy your reads............You do however, do quite well with the degenerates..GO RAVENS!!!!.......B
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    Zack............I have been around for quite a while.  It still amazes me that gamblers who should be more focused on banking are more concerned about your profile pic............I dont give a flying F what you look like, but newbies seem to be.  I enjoy your insight and and outlook on games...bottom line!!!  Please do not entertain them.........WTF?  I enjoy your reads............You do however, do quite well with the degenerates..GO RAVENS!!!!.......B
     
    ravenzone
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 4:07 AM ET #17

    That was supposed to continue with BOL............my fingers were happy!!!!!!!!!!!!!  AGAIN..............GO RAVENS................

     

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    That was supposed to continue with BOL............my fingers were happy!!!!!!!!!!!!!  AGAIN..............GO RAVENS................

     

     
    sandrew
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:04 AM ET #18

    Good luck Van...
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    Good luck Van...
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:10 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u

     

    Going from +105 at +6.5 to +7 at -110 isn't BUYING POINTS.

    You are in effect SELLING points to get the +6.5 at + juice simply because the site is offering it. The standard line is +7 -110 and you move from there.

    5Dimes is famous for putting up lines outside of the -110 range on the cover page of their betting lines page. It doesn't mean people are buying points when they move off 5 Dimes' proposed number.

    Train is correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

    Train - buying points?  Id like to think can is smarter than that. Even though a game is +100 the cost is still the same. I always ask, does your book let you sell points?  I think not.  Why not?  Well that is why you shouldn't buy points. 

    I am curious about the colts play particularly a 3u

     

    Going from +105 at +6.5 to +7 at -110 isn't BUYING POINTS.

    You are in effect SELLING points to get the +6.5 at + juice simply because the site is offering it. The standard line is +7 -110 and you move from there.

    5Dimes is famous for putting up lines outside of the -110 range on the cover page of their betting lines page. It doesn't mean people are buying points when they move off 5 Dimes' proposed number.

    Train is correct.

     
    DOVJAK
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:19 AM ET #20

    that .5 points is big
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    that .5 points is big
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:28 AM ET #21

    Good luck vanzack. Have fun with your family!
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    Good luck vanzack. Have fun with your family!
     
    LilManPJ
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:28 AM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by ravenzone:

    Zack............I have been around for quite a while.  It still amazes me that gamblers who should be more focused on banking are more concerned about your profile pic............I dont give a flying F what you look like, but newbies seem to be.  I enjoy your insight and and outlook on games...bottom line!!!  Please do not entertain them.........WTF?  I enjoy your reads............You do however, do quite well with the degenerates..GO RAVENS!!!!.......B

    Have an IPAD how would you be able to put up a image? Thanks BOL Arizona +6.5 over Pittsburgh/Baltimore 44 
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    Quote Originally Posted by ravenzone:

    Zack............I have been around for quite a while.  It still amazes me that gamblers who should be more focused on banking are more concerned about your profile pic............I dont give a flying F what you look like, but newbies seem to be.  I enjoy your insight and and outlook on games...bottom line!!!  Please do not entertain them.........WTF?  I enjoy your reads............You do however, do quite well with the degenerates..GO RAVENS!!!!.......B

    Have an IPAD how would you be able to put up a image? Thanks BOL Arizona +6.5 over Pittsburgh/Baltimore 44 
     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:29 AM ET #23

    For those who care about who the premium pay services are on today, the overwhelming majority are giving out the Ravens as their top play. More on Arizona than Carolina, but not to the extent of Baltimore.
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    For those who care about who the premium pay services are on today, the overwhelming majority are giving out the Ravens as their top play. More on Arizona than Carolina, but not to the extent of Baltimore.
     
    Beningo88
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 11:54 AM ET #24

    GL Van 
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    GL Van 
     
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2015 - 1:52 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.

    Well, you cant get the hook for free.  Im not trying to get in to semantics, but I assume you are saying that if you can get Det at +7 -110 that it is for "free". 

    Assuming that is what you meant - I guess I would just explain it by saying that the half point in that game from 6.5 to 7 is worth a certain amount.  Since I am posting lines from 5D which everyone can get - they put out a reduced juice line which is a 10 cent line at 6.5.  If you want to bet the line at 7, it is a 20 cent line which inherently means you are paying more juice for it.

    I think at the time of posting it was either 6.5 +100 or +7 -125.  25 cents is not a good buy for that half point IMO.  Yes, if you could have the choice of 6.5 +100 or 7 -110 I would suggest taking the 7.

    It all comes down to a simple evaluation of what you are paying for that half point, and if it is worth it or not.  Winning this individual bet and overpaying to do it is not in the equation at all.  It is a question of whether paying for that half point 100 times will be profitable or not.

    I hope that explains it....  Maybe I have a hard time articulating it - but for me it is a long term value proposition - not a "I have to win today and will pay too much to do it" proposition.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Curious as to why you didnt buy Az and Det up to +7 given they were + $ and basically you can get the hook for free. I know you're a juice guy, but wouldnt you rather have +7 -110 than +6.5 +100 ? If thats the case you might as well sell down to +4.5, as the likelyhood of a game landing on 5 or 6 is very low. Obviously this isnt necessarily what you bet, as I'm sure you got a better line with Detroit if you liked them early.

     

    Just curious.

    Well, you cant get the hook for free.  Im not trying to get in to semantics, but I assume you are saying that if you can get Det at +7 -110 that it is for "free". 

    Assuming that is what you meant - I guess I would just explain it by saying that the half point in that game from 6.5 to 7 is worth a certain amount.  Since I am posting lines from 5D which everyone can get - they put out a reduced juice line which is a 10 cent line at 6.5.  If you want to bet the line at 7, it is a 20 cent line which inherently means you are paying more juice for it.

    I think at the time of posting it was either 6.5 +100 or +7 -125.  25 cents is not a good buy for that half point IMO.  Yes, if you could have the choice of 6.5 +100 or 7 -110 I would suggest taking the 7.

    It all comes down to a simple evaluation of what you are paying for that half point, and if it is worth it or not.  Winning this individual bet and overpaying to do it is not in the equation at all.  It is a question of whether paying for that half point 100 times will be profitable or not.

    I hope that explains it....  Maybe I have a hard time articulating it - but for me it is a long term value proposition - not a "I have to win today and will pay too much to do it" proposition.

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