Posted:
#226
I like your correct score to hit my over, but am on the Patriots. You did a great job in the post-season, vanzack. Congratulations!
Keep it up
Keep it up
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2015 NFL playoff thread...
Posted:
#227
Van
First off I've been trolling this site for 10+ years and you are about the most consistent and thoughtful poster that I've seen. Thank you for sharing your insight. Now that I'm done shoving my head up your behind, I wanted to ask about your pick. I'm on the other side and starting to get nervous.
although I've bet for years I do not do any real number crunching. I picked the pats before the end of the Indy win, but here is what I like
Better level of competition - per Sagrins ratings ne played the 6th best schedule and Seattle the 14th
Although Seatle has better yardage stats, the pats have the edge on scoring, allowing 3 more pts on offense, but scoring 5 more then Seattle. Per stat fox https://www.statfox.com/nfl/gamematchup.asp. I understand this is a razor thin margin, but to me tempers or eliminates seattles yardage stats.
The superior scoring of New England is likely due to seattles plodding style and the lack of offensive playmakers, while the pats have the games best tight end and a savy veteran qb, and coach. New England score on apx 63% of their red zone possessions v 52% for the pats https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
New England has the better coach and qb.
When I watch the pats they look more complete.
All that being said, I hate betting against the leagues best defense And best running game. It is typically a recipe for disaster (see Baltimore, Seattle, Giants, etc)..
I never understand when people on this site say best of luck even when they are on the other side. So I won't say best of luck, rather I hope you lose this one ( unless I switch sides, but my more likely play is to bet the pats in game if they score first and look for the middle.)
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Posted:
#228
The best bet is no bet.
I think it’s a game that could go either way based on a bounce of the football. If they played 100 times, I think they would split and 90% of the games would be very close. Maybe 53% lean to the Seahawks as the younger more physical team. But Pats are the wiser, smarter team and it’s hard to ignore how the Seahawks played against Green Bay and were lucky to win.
Under 48. Lots of FGs. 19-16 Seahawks.
GL!
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Posted:
#230
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
The best bet is no bet.
The best bet is no bet.
I think it’s a game that could go either way based on a bounce of the football. If they played 100 times, I think they would split and 90% of the games would be very close. Maybe 53% lean to the Seahawks as the younger more physical team. But Pats are the wiser, smarter team and it’s hard to ignore how the Seahawks played against Green Bay and were lucky to win.
Under 48. Lots of FGs. 19-16 Seahawks.
GL!
I agree that I don't see any great value on either side. However, even if I did, it would probably be bullshit because like 99% of the people on this forum, my lifetime winning % is probably close to 50%. That being said, there is no way I'm not betting the Super Bowl, even if it's a coin flip.
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Posted:
#231
Sorry to those who have posted. I am out in Vegas with the family and am trying to squeeze in seeing shows and eating nice dinners with the sports schedule - which is a fulltime job. But cant complain. Been hanging a lot at the Venetian and made some bets over at Westgate. Might get over to see the Covers crowd at Mirage tomorrow if time permits.
Just a general statement about stats, my method, and how I arrived at the Seahawks for this game...
Raw stats are objective. But what you do with those stats is subjective. So it is impossible for me to argue with those who post well thought out positions on the Patriots, because I also think I could write a compelling narrative backed up with stats for them also.
I use a lot of adjusted stats. Those adjustments are my own tweaks that I have developed over time and am constantly changing. Then I take those adjusted stats and look at what I correlate to wins and losses - ie POINTS.
So my stats model is somewhere between a photograph and an abstract painting. It is not precise and actual - but is not 100% up to interpretation either. I don't like raw stats to predict sporting events because they are so misinterpreted. People that quote trends and stats have no place with me.
So in the end - my initial gut was that the Seahawks should be about -3.5 (not what I thought the line would be, but what I think the line based on results should be). I then crunched the numbers and came up with something very similar - which means it is a bet for me.
That's the long and the short of it. I know that doesn't answer a direct question about how they will handle Gronk or how the Brady will do, but it is how I come to decisions. I do analyze those things too - but that is not part of my stats model - that is part of my "gut" process.
So in the end - this is not a huge wager for me. Im not making a stand on the seahawks or anything. It very well may be a one possession game.
GL all. I have to go ride a ferris wheel or something.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#234
I'm on the Seahawks as well,
1. Seahawks haven't been blown out close to 20 points by any team this season comparing to Patriots by KC, Colts by Steelers, Packers by Seahawks and Saints.
No team can shut down the Seahawks!
2. Last year Wilson defeated the Broncos( with a soon to be hall of fame QB)
This year Wilson will defeat the Patriots(.......................)
JUST MY LITTLE INSIGHT.
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Posted:
#238
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
So in the end - my initial gut was that the Seahawks should be about -3.5 (not what I thought the line would be, but what I think the line based on results should be). I then crunched the numbers and came up with something very similar - which means it is a bet for me.
I have SEA a hard 4 point favorite in this one so good luck van
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Posted:
#240
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
The best bet is no bet.
The best bet is no bet.
I think it’s a game that could go either way based on a bounce of the football. If they played 100 times, I think they would split and 90% of the games would be very close. Maybe 53% lean to the Seahawks as the younger more physical team. But Pats are the wiser, smarter team and it’s hard to ignore how the Seahawks played against Green Bay and were lucky to win.
Under 48. Lots of FGs. 19-16 Seahawks.
GL!
One of the smartest things I have heard on this site in a long time
Pats PK
Under 1st 1/2
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Posted:
#243
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
And thanks for all of the kind words. I always read these threads and am amazed that anyone actually cares what I have to say.,...
You are the only true person left on this site. Vegas is such a blast that I normally have no time to watch a game but this is the World Cup of football. Fill us in on what shows you see.
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Posted:
#245
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
And thanks for all of the kind words. I always read these threads and am amazed that anyone actually cares what I have to say.,...
are you kidding??anything you say here is treated as gold...you yourself have commented on wat a cess-pool of ignorance and stupidity this environment is(i include myself,im degenerate just like others)....there is huge value on your every contribution.
good luck
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Great season van.
Posted:
#248
Crazy SB.
Some thoughts...
I don't have a problem with throwing the ball on the play everyone thinks is so dumb. It was second down, and the real problem is that Seattle burned 2 timeouts already - so they only had one left.
You either run on 2nd and call a timeout, and then the Pats KNOW you have to throw on third down. Or you throw on 2nd where they don't know if you run or throw, and then run on third and fourth.
You can argue the playcall itself - the slant - but I don't think you can criticize the call to pass too much. Its not maybe what I would have done - but it certainly isn't the dumbest playcall in the history of football like everyone is making it out to be.
I also am not sure what to make of Belichik not calling a timeout after the first down run by Seattle. I am surprised. In the end, it probably won the game for them, but I don't think it was the right thing to do.
I also thought that NE might let them score on first down. Once again, they won the game because they didn't let them score - but with a minute left I think that is the right move.
I had a pretty nice negative swing on that play. That's not fun at all. But it was a great game and a great season.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#249
The last several minutes of that game had almost every strategy dilemma you could think of.
I actually think most of the decisions were wrong - but with results bias - everyone is going to assume they were right.
Certainly Seattle wasting timeouts was not smart. I think NE should have called a timeout with a minute left. And I think NE should have let them score after calling a timeout after first down. I would have let them score on second down from the one yard line, NE would have had one timeout left and about 50 seconds to get a FG to tie.
But NE won in spite of what I think are some poor decisions - but I do admit they were very close calls.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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