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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    20 reasons why I think the Ravens line is inflated (***Novel alert**)

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    damonte
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    damonte
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 7:23 PM ET #51

    Stuck, based on your analysis I have NOT taken Ravens for the game, but played them +6 1/2 for the FIRST HALF. Your point is well taken regarding the short week and altitude. If this indeed comes into play, it is more likely to manifest itself in the second half. GL
    Reply
    Stuck, based on your analysis I have NOT taken Ravens for the game, but played them +6 1/2 for the FIRST HALF. Your point is well taken regarding the short week and altitude. If this indeed comes into play, it is more likely to manifest itself in the second half. GL
     
    az49erdog
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 7:42 PM ET #52

    Like the write-up Stucky, made some good points. My play here is a 5 unit 2 team teaser(6point) with Ravens +16 and Packers +8.5. I feel as you do that there are too many intangibles for Denver to be a 10 point chalk here, but I really have a lot of love for the 16, just in case there's a quick start for the Ponies. If Manning gets hot early and Flacco has to catch up and disregard Rice for the pass, the extra 6 may make all the difference, or at least that's my take. GL Buddy
    Reply
    Like the write-up Stucky, made some good points. My play here is a 5 unit 2 team teaser(6point) with Ravens +16 and Packers +8.5. I feel as you do that there are too many intangibles for Denver to be a 10 point chalk here, but I really have a lot of love for the 16, just in case there's a quick start for the Ponies. If Manning gets hot early and Flacco has to catch up and disregard Rice for the pass, the extra 6 may make all the difference, or at least that's my take. GL Buddy
     
    Stuckey
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2013 - 8:01 PM ET #53

    Reason #22: Team's looking to avenge a regular season loss in the postseason are 44-26-1 (.629) ATS since 2002
    Reply
    Reason #22: Team's looking to avenge a regular season loss in the postseason are 44-26-1 (.629) ATS since 2002
     
    Rocketman17
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 11:11 AM ET #54

    Reason #1 they won't - JOE FLACCO
     
    Stuckey, I'm a huge Bronco fan so obviously I'm biased, but Flacco is due for 3-4 stupid plays per game.  In the first game, Denver goes 3 and out and Flacco fumbles on the first posession on a QB sneak, then at the end of the half driving down to make it a 10-7 game he throws a 98 yard pick-6.  Game OVER.
     
    Truthfully I'm a little nervous this game because Denver destroyed Baltimore last time, it was actually 34-3 before Baltimore got 2 late garbage TD's, but revenge is a powerful thing.  Regardless, I just don't know how anyone can trust Flacco, this isn't the Colts D that applied 0 pressure all day, this team had 52 sacks this season and if you force Flacco to make quick decisions he's just plain bad!  Should be a good game, but just wanted to provide a view from the dark side!
    Reply
    Reason #1 they won't - JOE FLACCO
     
    Stuckey, I'm a huge Bronco fan so obviously I'm biased, but Flacco is due for 3-4 stupid plays per game.  In the first game, Denver goes 3 and out and Flacco fumbles on the first posession on a QB sneak, then at the end of the half driving down to make it a 10-7 game he throws a 98 yard pick-6.  Game OVER.
     
    Truthfully I'm a little nervous this game because Denver destroyed Baltimore last time, it was actually 34-3 before Baltimore got 2 late garbage TD's, but revenge is a powerful thing.  Regardless, I just don't know how anyone can trust Flacco, this isn't the Colts D that applied 0 pressure all day, this team had 52 sacks this season and if you force Flacco to make quick decisions he's just plain bad!  Should be a good game, but just wanted to provide a view from the dark side!
     
    p-lane1
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 11:14 AM ET #55

    I have 1 reason why the line's 9half..  it's joe flacco on the road ! all 4 of these games are tricky this weekend.
    Reply
    I have 1 reason why the line's 9half..  it's joe flacco on the road ! all 4 of these games are tricky this weekend.
     
    Daran.T
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 12:05 PM ET #56

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

    9. The Short Week. People are going to point to the fact that the NFL fucked the Ravens again by giving them a 6 day week before heading out to the altitude in Denver, but the Ravens have made this same short road trip 3 of the last 4 years in the playoffs. (lost a game they had a giant lead in at Pittsburgh in 2010, lost to the Colts in 2009, beat Tennessee in a game everyone picked them to lose in 2008).

    It's not exaggerated, but it still favors the Broncos.  Plenty of time for Peyton to make sure the receivers get their accurate throws to make Demaryus and company get touchdowns!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

    9. The Short Week. People are going to point to the fact that the NFL fucked the Ravens again by giving them a 6 day week before heading out to the altitude in Denver, but the Ravens have made this same short road trip 3 of the last 4 years in the playoffs. (lost a game they had a giant lead in at Pittsburgh in 2010, lost to the Colts in 2009, beat Tennessee in a game everyone picked them to lose in 2008).

    It's not exaggerated, but it still favors the Broncos.  Plenty of time for Peyton to make sure the receivers get their accurate throws to make Demaryus and company get touchdowns!
     
    98ITR
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 1:11 PM ET #57

    This line is based on the Broncos win @ Baltimore. If they didn't play in the regular season the line would be 7.5-8.

    Look at the Patriots line. The Monday night line started at -3.5 and now -9 for rematch. Obviously bc of the blow out win.

    Don't forget what happened 2 years ago when the Pats blew out the Jets in Foxborough and then laid an egg in the Playoff rematch.

    Something to think about. These dogs have value
    Reply
    This line is based on the Broncos win @ Baltimore. If they didn't play in the regular season the line would be 7.5-8.

    Look at the Patriots line. The Monday night line started at -3.5 and now -9 for rematch. Obviously bc of the blow out win.

    Don't forget what happened 2 years ago when the Pats blew out the Jets in Foxborough and then laid an egg in the Playoff rematch.

    Something to think about. These dogs have value
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 1:13 PM ET #58

    Quote Originally Posted by Rocketman17:

    Reason #1 they won't - JOE FLACCO
     
    Stuckey, I'm a huge Bronco fan so obviously I'm biased, but Flacco is due for 3-4 stupid plays per game.  In the first game, Denver goes 3 and out and Flacco fumbles on the first posession on a QB sneak, then at the end of the half driving down to make it a 10-7 game he throws a 98 yard pick-6.  Game OVER.
     
    Truthfully I'm a little nervous this game because Denver destroyed Baltimore last time, it was actually 34-3 before Baltimore got 2 late garbage TD's, but revenge is a powerful thing.  Regardless, I just don't know how anyone can trust Flacco, this isn't the Colts D that applied 0 pressure all day, this team had 52 sacks this season and if you force Flacco to make quick decisions he's just plain bad!  Should be a good game, but just wanted to provide a view from the dark side!


    Whats Flaccos post season record vs Mannings .....I think the answer might surprise you.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocketman17:

    Reason #1 they won't - JOE FLACCO
     
    Stuckey, I'm a huge Bronco fan so obviously I'm biased, but Flacco is due for 3-4 stupid plays per game.  In the first game, Denver goes 3 and out and Flacco fumbles on the first posession on a QB sneak, then at the end of the half driving down to make it a 10-7 game he throws a 98 yard pick-6.  Game OVER.
     
    Truthfully I'm a little nervous this game because Denver destroyed Baltimore last time, it was actually 34-3 before Baltimore got 2 late garbage TD's, but revenge is a powerful thing.  Regardless, I just don't know how anyone can trust Flacco, this isn't the Colts D that applied 0 pressure all day, this team had 52 sacks this season and if you force Flacco to make quick decisions he's just plain bad!  Should be a good game, but just wanted to provide a view from the dark side!


    Whats Flaccos post season record vs Mannings .....I think the answer might surprise you.
     
    Rocketman17
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 1:58 PM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



    Whats Flaccos post season record vs Mannings .....I think the answer might surprise you.

    Mark Sanchez has a better winning percentage than Manning in the playoffs, so what difference does that make? 

    If your argument is that Flacco is just as good or better than Manning then that's your opinion but to think prior postseason record is any way to compare these two is silly.

    There is a reason Flacco wasn't extended by the Ravens in the offseason you don't know if decent or terrible Joe will show.

    This is the first time Manning has a top 5 defense behind him, we'll see if that has any impact on this winning %.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



    Whats Flaccos post season record vs Mannings .....I think the answer might surprise you.

    Mark Sanchez has a better winning percentage than Manning in the playoffs, so what difference does that make? 

    If your argument is that Flacco is just as good or better than Manning then that's your opinion but to think prior postseason record is any way to compare these two is silly.

    There is a reason Flacco wasn't extended by the Ravens in the offseason you don't know if decent or terrible Joe will show.

    This is the first time Manning has a top 5 defense behind him, we'll see if that has any impact on this winning %.

     
    NorthernCapper
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 2:20 PM ET #60

    Awesome write up man. I'm also a diehard ravens fan. Think this game will be respectable. Small chance Baltimore wins but good chance they cover. 

    IMO the key to this game:

    15. Ravens red zone defense. The Ravens defense is not what it once was, but they are number 1 in the NFL in the redzone. Keeping 7's off the board in the playoffs is how you cover as a dog. The Broncos are going to move the ball....there is no denying that, but the Ravens should be right in this game if they do what they have done all year on defense inside the 20.

    If Baltimore can turn long Denver drives into fgs like they did an excellent job doing last week they have a chance. 


    Reply
    Awesome write up man. I'm also a diehard ravens fan. Think this game will be respectable. Small chance Baltimore wins but good chance they cover. 

    IMO the key to this game:

    15. Ravens red zone defense. The Ravens defense is not what it once was, but they are number 1 in the NFL in the redzone. Keeping 7's off the board in the playoffs is how you cover as a dog. The Broncos are going to move the ball....there is no denying that, but the Ravens should be right in this game if they do what they have done all year on defense inside the 20.

    If Baltimore can turn long Denver drives into fgs like they did an excellent job doing last week they have a chance. 


     
    ET4AUBURN1982
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 2:26 PM ET #61

    Reply
     
    chargerfan10
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 3:57 PM ET #62

    cliffs?
    Reply
    cliffs?
     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 4:07 PM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by ERZ80:

    We should be giving all the credit to Anquan Boldin for last game not Joe Flacco.




    this is probably the best point i've seen made on this thread... there are about 5 WRs in the history of the NFL who could bail out a QB the way that Boldin did last week... at least 5 times Flacco just hurled it up there, and every single time Boldin made the play...


    if you think Baltimore is going to get away with trying that this week, on the road, in less friendly weather conditions, against a legit D?

    will not happen!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ERZ80:

    We should be giving all the credit to Anquan Boldin for last game not Joe Flacco.




    this is probably the best point i've seen made on this thread... there are about 5 WRs in the history of the NFL who could bail out a QB the way that Boldin did last week... at least 5 times Flacco just hurled it up there, and every single time Boldin made the play...


    if you think Baltimore is going to get away with trying that this week, on the road, in less friendly weather conditions, against a legit D?

    will not happen!
     
    98ITR
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 4:08 PM ET #64

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

    Reason #22: Team's looking to avenge a regular season loss in the postseason are 44-26-1 (.629) ATS since 2002

    Love this stat. Take the points on Bal, GB and Hou and you should get 2 of 3. 


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

    Reason #22: Team's looking to avenge a regular season loss in the postseason are 44-26-1 (.629) ATS since 2002

    Love this stat. Take the points on Bal, GB and Hou and you should get 2 of 3. 


     
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 4:09 PM ET #65

    Quote Originally Posted by 98ITR:

    This line is based on the Broncos win @ Baltimore. If they didn't play in the regular season the line would be 7.5-8. 



    i assure you this is not true... in fact, it actually hurts Denver (from a capping standpoint) that they whipped Baltimore earlier in the year... if that game hadn't taken place, i would feel very comfortable laying 2 TDs with Denver in this game... the fact that it did take place means the Ravens will have a bit more focus than they would have otherwise... they know they have to play perfect, because of that game... that game was a wake-up call...

    that game is the reason this line isn't over 10...
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by 98ITR:

    This line is based on the Broncos win @ Baltimore. If they didn't play in the regular season the line would be 7.5-8. 



    i assure you this is not true... in fact, it actually hurts Denver (from a capping standpoint) that they whipped Baltimore earlier in the year... if that game hadn't taken place, i would feel very comfortable laying 2 TDs with Denver in this game... the fact that it did take place means the Ravens will have a bit more focus than they would have otherwise... they know they have to play perfect, because of that game... that game was a wake-up call...

    that game is the reason this line isn't over 10...
     
    Stuckey
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 7:41 PM ET #66

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:





    this is probably the best point i've seen made on this thread... there are about 5 WRs in the history of the NFL who could bail out a QB the way that Boldin did last week... at least 5 times Flacco just hurled it up there, and every single time Boldin made the play...


    if you think Baltimore is going to get away with trying that this week, on the road, in less friendly weather conditions, against a legit D?

    will not happen!

     

    Think before you speak.  Flacco went to Caldwell at the half and said that the corners are sitting on the inside routes and they need to go deep to Boldin.  Changed the whole game.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:





    this is probably the best point i've seen made on this thread... there are about 5 WRs in the history of the NFL who could bail out a QB the way that Boldin did last week... at least 5 times Flacco just hurled it up there, and every single time Boldin made the play...


    if you think Baltimore is going to get away with trying that this week, on the road, in less friendly weather conditions, against a legit D?

    will not happen!

     

    Think before you speak.  Flacco went to Caldwell at the half and said that the corners are sitting on the inside routes and they need to go deep to Boldin.  Changed the whole game.

     
    Stuckey
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 7:42 PM ET #67

    23.  Ed Dickson was hurt for the first meeting.  Best blocking tight end by far.  Will be necessary against Miller.

    24.  Nobody and I mean nobody is saying the Ravens have a chance.

    Reply

    23.  Ed Dickson was hurt for the first meeting.  Best blocking tight end by far.  Will be necessary against Miller.

    24.  Nobody and I mean nobody is saying the Ravens have a chance.

     
    forkball
    forkball
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    Posts: 566
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 8:06 PM ET #68

    IDK. . .four pro bowl starters on defense missed the first meeting.  To think that future hall of famers Lewis and Reed won't have this defense fired up is laughable. 

    Manning in sub 40 weather in the playoffs. . .0-3.  1 td, 7 picks.  I understand it because I don't like playing in cold weather either, bodys not right.

    Reply

    IDK. . .four pro bowl starters on defense missed the first meeting.  To think that future hall of famers Lewis and Reed won't have this defense fired up is laughable. 

    Manning in sub 40 weather in the playoffs. . .0-3.  1 td, 7 picks.  I understand it because I don't like playing in cold weather either, bodys not right.

     
    Bodogjoe
    Bodogjoe
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    Posts: 926
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 8:21 PM ET #69

    lets win here...do a 3 team teaser with  balt  atlanta   san fran  10pts YOU WIN.
    Reply
    lets win here...do a 3 team teaser with  balt  atlanta   san fran  10pts YOU WIN.
     
    Stuckey
    Stuckey
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 8:23 PM ET #70

    NFL Weekend:

    Baltimore, Green Bay, Atlanta and Houston/New England Under.

    Reply

    NFL Weekend:

    Baltimore, Green Bay, Atlanta and Houston/New England Under.

     
    buckubad
    buckubad
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    Posts: 13403
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 8:39 PM ET #71

    is a balt or no play for me, always like to b on stuckeyside
    Reply
    is a balt or no play for me, always like to b on stuckeyside
     
    Cooler999
    Cooler999
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    Posts: 22213
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 9:34 PM ET #72

    Stucky.......In all the years I've been reading your threads, this one, I hope becomes your legacy.  GL on your pick, hope it comes through for you.
    Reply
    Stucky.......In all the years I've been reading your threads, this one, I hope becomes your legacy.  GL on your pick, hope it comes through for you.
     
    FadeOnly
    FadeOnly
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    Posts: 16675
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 9:41 PM ET #73

    Reply
     
    ApocalypseLater
    ApocalypseLater
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    Posts: 4260
    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 9:59 PM ET #74

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

     

    Think before you speak.  Flacco went to Caldwell at the half and said that the corners are sitting on the inside routes and they need to go deep to Boldin.  Changed the whole game.




    first of all... BULLSHIT!  Flacco is not the one who made that call... Boldin is!  you clearly do not understand the hierarchy of the Baltimore Ravens... IF Flacco is the one who went to Caldwell, it is ONLY because Boldin went to Flacco first... i would bank everything i own on that fact... Boldin IS the Baltimore Ravens offense... he is the single most underrated WR to EVER play in the NFL... and the ONLY reason the Ravens started force-feeding him, is because BOLDIN got in someone's face, and said "wake the darn up!"... the fact that you believe FLACCO is the one who made that decision, means you do not exactly have your finger on the pulse of this football team...


    second... IF your statement were true, it would still not have any bearing whatsoever on my entire post... completely irrelevant... and yet, you started your post (ironically) with "think before you speak"...
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

     

    Think before you speak.  Flacco went to Caldwell at the half and said that the corners are sitting on the inside routes and they need to go deep to Boldin.  Changed the whole game.




    first of all... BULLSHIT!  Flacco is not the one who made that call... Boldin is!  you clearly do not understand the hierarchy of the Baltimore Ravens... IF Flacco is the one who went to Caldwell, it is ONLY because Boldin went to Flacco first... i would bank everything i own on that fact... Boldin IS the Baltimore Ravens offense... he is the single most underrated WR to EVER play in the NFL... and the ONLY reason the Ravens started force-feeding him, is because BOLDIN got in someone's face, and said "wake the darn up!"... the fact that you believe FLACCO is the one who made that decision, means you do not exactly have your finger on the pulse of this football team...


    second... IF your statement were true, it would still not have any bearing whatsoever on my entire post... completely irrelevant... and yet, you started your post (ironically) with "think before you speak"...
     
     
    casheasy
    casheasy
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2013 - 10:50 PM ET #75

    I actually like the Ravens for some of the same reasons you state, and I like this "novel," as you call it. Good stuff all around.

    But the one thing that scares me is the one reason you gave that I disagree with. Jim Caldwell. True, things have definitley changed since the exit of Cameron. But Caldwell may be the dumbest coach in the NFL right now. By that I mean, his IQ is like 80 or something. Players realize how dumb he is. Other coaches know how to take advantage of how dumb he is. Denver's corners aren't going to allow thise dumb jump balls they've gotten away with so far. So it's all on Flacco making good throws down the middle of the field early and Baltimore getting on top so the Broncos can choke. I love Peyton (PAYDAY) Manning. But he can feel the playoff pressure if you get on top of his team early. Take the crowd out of it. Let Rice get 100. Cover as tight as you did last week. You'll win the game outright if you can do those things.

     

    Baltimore 24 Denver 23

     

    Now let's see if I have the balls to play Baltimore ML lol

    Reply

    I actually like the Ravens for some of the same reasons you state, and I like this "novel," as you call it. Good stuff all around.

    But the one thing that scares me is the one reason you gave that I disagree with. Jim Caldwell. True, things have definitley changed since the exit of Cameron. But Caldwell may be the dumbest coach in the NFL right now. By that I mean, his IQ is like 80 or something. Players realize how dumb he is. Other coaches know how to take advantage of how dumb he is. Denver's corners aren't going to allow thise dumb jump balls they've gotten away with so far. So it's all on Flacco making good throws down the middle of the field early and Baltimore getting on top so the Broncos can choke. I love Peyton (PAYDAY) Manning. But he can feel the playoff pressure if you get on top of his team early. Take the crowd out of it. Let Rice get 100. Cover as tight as you did last week. You'll win the game outright if you can do those things.

     

    Baltimore 24 Denver 23

     

    Now let's see if I have the balls to play Baltimore ML lol

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