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WTF?!?! Dallas Mavericks only 74% chance to win the series?

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Imakeplays:

Bodio, 
I follow you all the time, as a matter of fact my fellow Handicapper and I are Huge fans of yours and think you are the best we have seen on covers. With that being said, I really cant see the dallas game covering, reason being the very statement you made.. DALLAS has yet to lose ATS this playoffs... And this is beginning to seem like the easiest money in the world... just bet dallas all season and playoffs?

I might just lay off because of how much I respect your opinion and the line movement indicates you are right.. but the line will only be 2 by gametime, Dallas -2 @ home after HANDLING the lakers on their home floor... could be TOO EASY (especially after 8 straight ATS)


Now about the bulls. I think that we continually see 2 teams with the HAwks... One is the team that we all hope to see, the athletic, young gritty squad which has a plethora of B+ players who can D up. Then the other team is the one we saw last game, the " WE CANT SCORE 80 to SAVE OUR LIVES" hawks... i remember earlier this season I hit a 2x bet on Celtics and UNDER, the C's were playing the hawks in ATL, and they won by almost 50, while the hawks didnt score 60....that hawks team is the one we all fear when putting money on those guys.. 

but bottom line, line movement, Matchups, and a guy by the name of JAMAL crawford, make me feel like the hawks win game 3 at home. 

All valid points.  I know Dallas can't really maintain that perfect ATS streak, but from what I've seen in the first 2 games, I just feel they're a much better team than LA.  We shall see tonight...

As for the Bulls/Hawks...Chicago hasn't played their best game yet, not even close.  Hawks did in game 1.  Will the repeat happen tonight?  It could, but I like backing a team that crashes the boards and plays better D.  If D-Rose has an 'average' game, this one shouldn't be close....
 
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Posted: #52

Bodio,

 

Are you implying that there will be a sweep in the Lakers series?  I cannot see KOBE getting swept can you?   Are the two time champs done??????

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by TITANPANDA12:

Bodio,

 

Are you implying that there will be a sweep in the Lakers series?  I cannot see KOBE getting swept can you?   Are the two time champs done??????


Maybe  

I do think Lakers are done though!
 
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Posted: #54
If there is a sweep, wouldn't it be safer to bet the games rather than betting the 2 to 1 payout?
 
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Posted: #55
Bodio, whats up bro.  Hey im originally from the chi.  I got my play of the year game on the bulls moneyline tonite.  My family still lives there and my pops said the bulls get it done tonite.  I saw ur on them.  Rose needs to come up big tonite.
 
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Posted: #56
Glad we're on the same side bodio, GL.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units


2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
16 - 14 @ 53% for +0.6 Units




Thur 05/06

#1: Chicago Bulls -2.5

Researching this game I couldn't help and read various quotes from ATL players and coaches claiming how confident they are for this game tonight due to 'taking Bulls' best shot' and almost winning both games in Chicago. Sure, the Bulls were up 6 points in the 4th quarter of game 2 with 4 minutes left, but was that game really in any doubt? More importantly, I don't think Chicago came close to playing their 'best' ball yet. "We feel like we took their best punch." - said Jamal Crawford. Really? Unless I'm missing something, Bulls didn't play much better in game 2 than they did in game 1. The difference in the 2nd game was that Atlanta actually regressed to their 'normal' level of playing, while the Bulls went back to dominating the boards and making 'hustle' plays, something they've done most of this season. The reality is that Bulls haven't started 'punching' yet Mr. Crawford. And when they do, well, we might see a performance similar to the 114-81 shellacking the Bulls put on the Hawks on this same same court during the regular season.

Atlanta is only 19-25 ATS at home this season while the Bulls are 26-17 ATS on the road. I don't see Atlanta having a great 'home-court' advantage in this one as I expect Chicago to win game 3 by a comfortable margin.

#2: Dallas Mavericks -2

I'm impressed. I knew Dallas was good (heck I predicted Dallas / Chicago final earlier this season prior to changing my mind late) but I didn't know they were THIS good. This team is for real. They have size, depth, and a super-star that is just playing excellent 'ball' right now. What I find interesting though, is that 65%+ of the public are on the Lakers tonight. This is coming after game 2, where 65%+ were backing Dallas. Hmmm... The public is usually very reactionary to just a game or 2 that they see recently, but it's not the case here. Are they expecting the Champs to bounce-back? Is the 'zig-zag' theory applied? I'm not sure, but I'm definitely surprised here. Either way, I'm going to be 'square' on this one.

Bottom line is that I see one team in LA that is completely overmatched in this series. I was surprised to see LA give up a 16 point lead in game 1, and thought that Lakers would win game 2 easily...I was wrong. Lakers are slower, have no depth on their bench, and, I can't believe I"m saying this, look out-coached out there. Where are the adjustments? How do you let Barea continuously drive on you and get easy layups and/or quality looks for his teammates? Maybe the coaching is there, but the execution is just lacking. Either way, from what I saw in the first 2 games of the series, I'm not sure if LA can win a game unless Dallas 'gives it away'. Some will say that LA's 3PT shooting was an anomaly in game 2 and with improved % there, they can win. Sure, maybe. But then again, Dallas had an EFG% of 47% in game 2, way below their 53% EFG% during the regular season. What will happen when they shoot better from the floor (as most teams do on their own home-court)? Some people might say that Artest getting suspended is a good thing for this Lakers team. Really? This team already has no bench, and now with Artest out, I'm assuming Barnes is going to start with possibly Walton playing more minutes off the bench. Artest was horrible in the first 2 games so maybe Barnes will play a bit better, but missing another body from an already 'depleted' bench is not a good thing.

I know this is a 'must-win' game for the Lakers but I'll back a better team in this one. Dallas is 8-0 ATS in these playoffs and I won't go against 'perfection' again.

============================================================================================


betting against champions in this spot is tough to do..so i must say you have balls....
 
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Posted: #58

 On all three of your plays already, I think Mavs are experienced enough to not take foot off gas. Also took Mavs 4-1 to win NBA champ yest, with poss hedge if they get to finals. I see a pretty clear path to finals, unfortunately they will not have home court if in finals. Any thoughts??

 
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Posted: #59
 
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Posted: #60

Bodio -

Always respect your picks but really respect that you are willing to admit you were wrong on the Lakers.  That is true class.

I was with you on your "zig-zag" Bulls logic for game 2 but I faded your Laker Game 2 call.  I've watched the Lakers for years (as I'm sure most people in this thread have) and they have look tired and unmotivated for the past 6 weeks.  They just aren't the same team from the past 3 years and unfortunately for us folks in Southern California they are going to lose this series.  But hey, there is always next year.

However, money has no alliegence so I'm going to continue betting the Mavs until the Lakers can demonstrate they have some heart.

 
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Posted: #61
same sides
 
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Posted: #62
Disagree with the out-coached comment, although the Lakers did not make necessary adjustments for Game 2. Hence Andrew Bynum's controversial quote about there not being enough "trust" between team mates. In a short out-take on ESPN Phil addressed this, and said it was a matter of knowing when to rotate over and take the other guy's (Bynum's) man on defense. They have been working on that.

Although they really need to shoot better! They have been awful from the perimeter, and I think will revert to the mean... sometime.

I think the Lakers are dangerous here, and am staying off.

That said, I love your analysis of the Dallas series odds. I'm all over that!

Also like the Chicago Bulls tonight! They should be favorites here.

Good luck!


 
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Posted: #63
Against you on both
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by DT3324:


betting against champions in this spot is tough to do..so i must say you have balls....

who's the more motivated team here? who's hungrier? you tell me. the back 2 back champs who have sat on the champhionship the last 2 years , or dallas who has a couple of hof veterans who want a title
 
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Posted: #65
Bodio - always look to your opinion and, like everyone else, appreciate what you do here!

While I'm not sure how I feel about the Lakers chances tonight, I don't think the #'s are a factor here as much as the mental state of this team.  IMO to say the Lakers are over matched is crazy.  If they played as hungry as the Mavs have been playing, they'd at LEAST be tied 1-1 in this series.  Blowing a 16 point lead isn't being over matched, its just called 'giving up'.  The Lakers just aren't in this emotionally, so their effort will determine tonight's game. 

I'm staying away from wagering on this game as I pray the Lakers just MIGHT flip that switch and act like they give a shit.  I do like your Bulls play, though!  GL tonight.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by ramblers:

Bodio, whats up bro.  Hey im originally from the chi.  I got my play of the year game on the bulls moneyline tonite.  My family still lives there and my pops said the bulls get it done tonite.  I saw ur on them.  Rose needs to come up big tonite.

I agree.  Rose needs to stop playing like shit!  
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by TheRaven64:

 On all three of your plays already, I think Mavs are experienced enough to not take foot off gas. Also took Mavs 4-1 to win NBA champ yest, with poss hedge if they get to finals. I see a pretty clear path to finals, unfortunately they will not have home court if in finals. Any thoughts??


Not a bad wager especially since you're planning to hedge later on...
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysLearning:

Bodio -

Always respect your picks but really respect that you are willing to admit you were wrong on the Lakers.  That is true class.

I was with you on your "zig-zag" Bulls logic for game 2 but I faded your Laker Game 2 call.  I've watched the Lakers for years (as I'm sure most people in this thread have) and they have look tired and unmotivated for the past 6 weeks.  They just aren't the same team from the past 3 years and unfortunately for us folks in Southern California they are going to lose this series.  But hey, there is always next year.

However, money has no alliegence so I'm going to continue betting the Mavs until the Lakers can demonstrate they have some heart.


thanks buddy..Now the real question will be tomorrow...will I admit being wrong on Celtics for the first 2 games of that series?   
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

Disagree with the out-coached comment, although the Lakers did not make necessary adjustments for Game 2. Hence Andrew Bynum's controversial quote about there not being enough "trust" between team mates. In a short out-take on ESPN Phil addressed this, and said it was a matter of knowing when to rotate over and take the other guy's (Bynum's) man on defense. They have been working on that.

Although they really need to shoot better! They have been awful from the perimeter, and I think will revert to the mean... sometime.

I think the Lakers are dangerous here, and am staying off.

That said, I love your analysis of the Dallas series odds. I'm all over that!

Also like the Chicago Bulls tonight! They should be favorites here.

Good luck!



yeah...He looked out-coached/out-played in game 2, but then again we'll see what kind of an adjustment Lakers will make tonight.

GL buddy
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

Against you on both

   
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by TheVagueIdea:

Bodio - always look to your opinion and, like everyone else, appreciate what you do here!

While I'm not sure how I feel about the Lakers chances tonight, I don't think the #'s are a factor here as much as the mental state of this team.  IMO to say the Lakers are over matched is crazy.  If they played as hungry as the Mavs have been playing, they'd at LEAST be tied 1-1 in this series.  Blowing a 16 point lead isn't being over matched, its just called 'giving up'.  The Lakers just aren't in this emotionally, so their effort will determine tonight's game. 

I'm staying away from wagering on this game as I pray the Lakers just MIGHT flip that switch and act like they give a shit.  I do like your Bulls play, though!  GL tonight.

Yeah good point.  Kobe saying after game 1 that 'he's afraid of Dallas' is all we need to know in this series....
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Bodio, I was a bit surprised to see you on the Mavs tonight. I keep thinking that L.A. has to win one game and game three seems like the best chance they have, add in the fact that the NBA needs the big two teams, Celts and Lakers, to push some ratings, then this is the perfect spot to back L.A. I cannot see them being swept.

They still have Miami and a lot of viewers will want to see if Mr. James can get it done.  Then all the hatred from the Cavs and resurface while Mr. James grins.

 
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Posted: #73

https://cdn.mediatakeout.com/48386/lakers_drama_nba_star_pau_gasol_blames_teammate____for_breaking_up_his_relationship.html
 
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Posted: #74
Mavs
 
 
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