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WTF?!?! Dallas Mavericks only 74% chance to win the series?

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nepatriots_12

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2304

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 5:48 PM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by jordanfreak7:

you do realize they are back to back champs right?

Oh really? I didn't know...damn, I guess that means they're gonna come back and win 4 straight.

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 5:48 PM ET #102

Quote Originally Posted by jaygt911:

I'm with you on the Mavs/Bulls tonight Bodio

I like the UNDERS tonight as well in both games. This is less popular, but these four teams (Mavs/Lakers/Bulls/Hawks) all play defense well. The Bulls/Hawks are a bit offensively challenged and the Lakers/Mavs went over by a basket in the first game and way under in the 2nd.

As for the Mavs series that's a great play. I already took the Mavs to win the series at +290 so I'm riding that one out. Although the Mavs in 4 at +450 seems awfully enticing. Seriously they're 4.5/1 to win the next two games at home?! Might make a value play on that.

That's definitely a big 'value' bet!

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 5:48 PM ET #103

Quote Originally Posted by jordanfreak7:

you do realize they are back to back champs right?

No they're not! Bulls haven't won a championship in ages!

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papagunnz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 333

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 5:50 PM ET #104

(quote:Bodio)
Lakers are slower, have no depth on their bench, and, I can't believe I"m saying this, look out-coached out there. Where are the adjustments? How do you let Barea continuously drive on you and get easy layups and/or quality looks for his teammates? Maybe the coaching is there, but the execution is just lacking. Either way, from what I saw in the first 2 games of the series, I'm not sure if LA can win a game unless Dallas 'gives it away'

phil jackson doesnt have the passion for it anymore, he was basically begged to come back this year, instead of retiring..but now i feel his mind set is already on retirement..even during interviews he just doesnt seem like he gives two shit anymore, and why should he..he doesnt even have enough fingers for all those rings lol

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papagunnz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 333

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 5:54 PM ET #105

Quote Originally Posted by jordanfreak7:

you do realize they are back to back champs right?

B i think hes talkin about the laker...but either way it doesnt make a difference lol lakers could be the 5 time champs all back to back, and it means shit cuz this isnt the same laker team! back to back means nothing THIS year

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bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:01 PM ET #106

Quote Originally Posted by papagunnz:

B i think hes talkin about the laker...but either way it doesnt make a difference lol lakers could be the 5 time champs all back to back, and it means shit cuz this isnt the same laker team! back to back means nothing THIS year

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papagunnz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 333

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:10 PM ET #107

hes from california too, prolly a fan...sounds like a remark you would get from a fan considering the situation that team is in lol

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MuggsyBogues

Captain

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 8640

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:40 PM ET #108

jay, where do you see 4.50 on mavs to sweep this series?

that's a pretty bad error on bookie's part, I want a piece of that action

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Whalewatcher

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 4491

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:49 PM ET #109

O.........E............O .................BO.......................DEEEEEEEEE...........O!!

Get that money main!!

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2Team_Parlay

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 10323

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #110

BOL Bodio

with u on the bulls but im backing the lake show tonight i still think they lose sereis but they arent getting swept and tonight is the perfect spot to back them after phil jackson essentially called his team out... they always step it up when he does that and i think their experience gets them the W tonight

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NorthOf49Sports

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 468

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 6:58 PM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

I agree. Rose needs to stop playing like shit!

Both Rose and Boozer not close to 100-percent, although Boozer is a replacement-level player, and obviously Rose is not. Rose's grade-2 sprain is the main reason for his lack of drives to the paint. Everyone else has to step it up. Bulls aren't as healthy as they were back in regular season as guests in ATL.

GL

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-LB-

Hall of Fame

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 23180

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 7:13 PM ET #112

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Havelin

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 7897

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 7:43 PM ET #113

Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

I'd have to say anyone who's in a fight with a combatant who's sleep-deprived has a pretty nice edge going in.

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papagunnz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 333

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 7:55 PM ET #114

hey bo...sorry for asking this...i know you been asked this a lot...but anyway i know you flat bet everything...but i didnt catch exactly how...do you flat bet 1 unit...or flat bet to win 1 unit....

example
(-110) bet 1u to win 0.91u
(+110) bet 1u to win 1.10u

or

(-110) bet 1.10u to win 1u
(+110) bet 1u to win 1.10u

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crownholder

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1330

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:01 PM ET #115

Lakers will win this series 4-3! If you do your research, it will tell you that the Mavericks are bad about blowing series lead. For example: Mavericks vs. the Heat! It's gonna happen again!

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gd2436

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 2486

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:06 PM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by crownholder:

Lakers will win this series 4-3! If you do your research, it will tell you that the Mavericks are bad about blowing series lead. For example: Mavericks vs. the Heat! It's gonna happen again!

i want to see what you have to say about this after the fakers get clobbered good tonite!!!...which is exactly what is going to happen!

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crownholder

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1330

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:11 PM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by gd2436:

i want to see what you have to say about this after the fakers get clobbered good tonite!!!...which is exactly what is going to happen!

Lakers gonna ride the HELL out of them tonight! I'm guessing you are a Dallas fan?

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bob696969

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 4049

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:18 PM ET #118

[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio] Dallas Mavericks to win the series -280

A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2
Keep in mind that Dallas is up 2-0 and going HOME for the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 (if needed).

At -280 odds, the oddsmakers are giving Dallas 74% chance of winning the series. (I guess Lakers still have some respect).
For comparison purposes, Bulls being tied 1-1 and going on the road, are at -420 to win their series, or 81%.

The math just doesn't add up. You know what odds equal 94% winning percentage? -1500
So we have an opportunity to wager on a bet at -280 odds that historically should be -1500?

I'm not a math genius per say, but where do I sign up??

(I'm betting 3x my normal bet amount on this one FYI)

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

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[Quote: Originally Posted by bodio] Dallas Mavericks to win the series -280

A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2
Keep in mind that Dallas is up 2-0 and going HOME for the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 (if needed).

At -280 odds, the oddsmakers are giving Dallas 74% chance of winning the series. (I guess Lakers still have some respect).
For comparison purposes, Bulls being tied 1-1 and going on the road, are at -420 to win their series, or 81%.

The math just doesn't add up. You know what odds equal 94% winning percentage? -1500
So we have an opportunity to wager on a bet at -280 odds that historically should be -1500?

I'm not a math genius per say, but where do I sign up??

(I'm betting 3x my normal bet amount on this one FYI)

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330

papagunnz

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 333

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:19 PM ET #119

Quote Originally Posted by crownholder:

Lakers will win this series 4-3! If you do your research, it will tell you that the Mavericks are bad about blowing series lead. For example: Mavericks vs. the Heat! It's gonna happen again!

lmfaooo are you serious???...your talking as if this is the same Mavs team..which is NOT the case THIS year...and your talking as if this is the same lakers team...which is also NOT the case THIS year! it was very clear coming into this series that the lakers dont match up against the mavs..not to mention you really have ZERO foundation to base this on since this is the first time the lakers and mavs have EVER met in the post season

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crownholder

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1330

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:23 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by papagunnz:

lmfaooo are you serious???...your talking as if this is the same Mavs team..which is NOT the case THIS year...and your talking as if this is the same lakers team...which is also NOT the case THIS year! it was very clear coming into this series that the lakers dont match up against the mavs..not to mention you really have ZERO foundation to base this on since this is the first time the lakers and mavs have EVER met in the post season

You'll see in less than an hour

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Crusher13

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 8028

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:28 PM ET #121

Bodio, of all your posts on this particular thread I find #73 the most informative of what REALLY lies beneath the Lakers all of sudden self destruction.

I remember when Jason Kidd and Jim Jackson got into some shit over a woman in early 90's and it absolutely ruined TEAM chemistry!! This makes sense as to the Lakers late season slump too. BB is the one sport where YOU MUST have all five players on the court on same page and currently, the Fakers don't have it right now, Don't think Bynum's comments about TRUST doesn't TELL IT ALL because obviously it does!!

Furthermore, Phil Jackson obviously has mailed it in as seen in his last two postgame interviews. He is ready to retire and you can tell he is sick of all this "drama." Can't blame him either when fuckin' hoes screw up their cohesion and don't even play

DALLAS smells blood in the water and they are gonna try and pounce on them right away and get an early BIG LEAD, Their depth will eventually prevail.

Good LUCK and get back on another HOT streak.

PS Beware of those red shoed Rangers, ther having a very early season SCORING slump

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LVTruck

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 33772

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:39 PM ET #122

Dallas Mavericks to win the series -280

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LVTruck

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 33772

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:41 PM ET #123

Dallas Mavericks -2

Sorry about the double post BOL and Thank you

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crownholder

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1330

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:41 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

Dallas Mavericks to win the series -280

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LVTruck

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 33772

Posted: May. 6, 2011 - 8:46 PM ET #125

Quote Originally Posted by crownholder:

Lakers fan all my life,,,, but this team is not the same,, they are tired

I can see it in the eyes,, SWEEP

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WTF?!?! Dallas Mavericks only 74% chance to win the series?

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