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WTF?!?! Dallas Mavericks only 74% chance to win the series?

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Posted: #76
gl buddy....the Bulls still haven't played a dominant game in the playoffs, besides Game 5 against the Pacers...if they don't bring their "A" game tonight, Atlanta will probably pick up the win..what makes you think they will bring it?

Love the Mavs play btw...I think they sweep. Great value on that series play also at -280


 
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Posted: #77
Good Luck Bodio.
 
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Posted: #78
bodio quote:
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2

The majority of those 2-0 series leads weren't the Mavs vs. the defending champ Lakers. You've got to factor in that the team that is down 2-0 has a better chance of coming back than most other teams in this situation.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


All I'm saying is backs up against the wall, I am not putting my $$$ against Kobe and Phil.  Not guna do it.  I am talking about game 3, not the series here guys.  Artest out is actually a good thing for Hell-LA, that Queens boy is so bad at offense, it is scary at times, and Dirk was making him look like a fool on the Defensive end anyway!!  Watch LA win this game 


BOL to the Dallas backers  


DIRK was making everyone who tried to guard him look like a fool! LA is done. nice knowing u phil, you've been a great coach these past decades! a true LEGEND.
 
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Posted: #80
bodio - 

thank you for posting your plays.  i try to ride your mlb picks as much as possible.  you're very good at what you do.

that being said i'm going against both plays today.  i am leaving for vegas in an hour so don't have time to explain but i feel atlanta at home will be a tight game and lakers well... betting against the champs is a tall order.  i think LA wins by a few and atl keeps it close in a low scoring battle.
 
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Posted: #81

bodio quote:
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2

This is the wrong stat to look at.  Most of the time the 2-0 team is the better team by far.  You can't compare this to the '09 #1 Cleveland vs #8 Detroit series, where Cleveland swept in 4 easily. That's what most of the 2-0's are like.

The better stat is how many 2-0 home losers still win the series.  3 out of 18.  That's 83% or -500.  That means you're getting a bargain at -250.  But it's a not a GREAT bargain like 94% or -3000 or so would be.

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

gl buddy....the Bulls still haven't played a dominant game in the playoffs, besides Game 5 against the Pacers...if they don't bring their "A" game tonight, Atlanta will probably pick up the win..what makes you think they will bring it?

Love the Mavs play btw...I think they sweep. Great value on that series play also at -280



I think Bulls' dominance rebounding the ball and playing D will be a factor here.  To me, Bulls are a better team, period.  They haven't played a good game yet in this series, and in 2 road games in ATL during the regular season they were dominant for 3 out of 4 halves...I like their chances for a comfortable win tonight
 
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Posted: #83
Kobe is going to go for 50 tonight  

 Pull up a chair and make some popcorn fellas!!  
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by bsandersss:

bodio quote:
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2

The majority of those 2-0 series leads weren't the Mavs vs. the defending champ Lakers. You've got to factor in that the team that is down 2-0 has a better chance of coming back than most other teams in this situation.

Yes, that's actually a good point.  I actually just read another article somewhere on the web, that the % of a team in Mavs' situation of advancing is actually 83%.   Either way, the odds are in Mavs' favor here..
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

bodio quote:
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2

This is the wrong stat to look at.  Most of the time the 2-0 team is the better team by far.  You can't compare this to the '09 #1 Cleveland vs #8 Detroit series, where Cleveland swept in 4 easily. That's what most of the 2-0's are like.

The better stat is how many 2-0 home losers still win the series.  3 out of 18.  That's 83% or -500.  That means you're getting a bargain at -250.  But it's a not a GREAT bargain like 94% or -3000 or so would be.


Yeah, I just read the same article as you.  Either way, 74% odds when historically it's been 83%, is 'value' in my book.  Also, just watching Dallas execute their game-plan against a life-less Lakers team, makes it a confident wager for me...GL
 
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Posted: #86
I was eyeing the Bulls game since yesterday - glad you're on this play as well Bodio. As for Dallas, i'm just gonna sit back and watch how this pans out...but LOVE the series bet.
 
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Posted: #87
Btw Bodio...not sure if you've heard of this site, but it's a great tool for analyzing advanced player vs player and team vs team statistics.

https://basketballvalue.com/index.php


 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


First team in 34 years, to lose the first 2 games at home and comeback to win the series.  


 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Btw Bodio...not sure if you've heard of this site, but it's a great tool for analyzing advanced player vs player and team vs team statistics.

https://basketballvalue.com/index.php



thanks...I came across this site in the past, but it's not really that helpful
 
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Posted: #90
Already on Dallas (4-1), (4-2), and the most profit (4-3) they'll win this series but I definitely don't see them sweeping. Agree with both picks but for tonight I'll be on the under for the first half of the lakers game and will make a second half side after seeing whether the lakers have any heart left.
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Yeah, I just read the same article as you.  Either way, 74% odds when historically it's been 83%, is 'value' in my book.  Also, just watching Dallas execute their game-plan against a life-less Lakers team, makes it a confident wager for me...GL


First of all, where can I find that article?

You say historically it's 83%. What are the details on that? Do you mean that every time the better seeded team loses home court advantage and is down 0-2 that the worse seeded team has 83% chance of winning?
 
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Posted: #92

Quote Originally Posted by bsandersss:



First of all, where can I find that article?

You say historically it's 83%. What are the details on that? Do you mean that every time the better seeded team loses home court advantage and is down 0-2 that the worse seeded team has 83% chance of winning?

It's all over the web, dude. Actually it's 4, not 3 teams.  The 69 Lakers, 94 Rockets, 05 Mavs and the '11 Lakers (hey, one can hope). 

 
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Posted: #93
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Dallas Mavericks to win the series -280

A team that starts out a series up 2-0 has a 94% chance of winning it: 219-14 (94%) all-time
A team that starts out a series up 2-0 in ROUND 2 has a 95% chance of winning it: 94-5 (95%) all-time in Round 2
Keep in mind that Dallas is up 2-0 and going HOME for the next 2 and 3 of the next 4 (if needed). 




You should wait until LA wins game 3, then take Mavs series.

At -280 odds, the oddsmakers are giving Dallas 74% chance of winning the series. (I guess Lakers still have some respect).
For comparison purposes, Bulls being tied 1-1 and going on the road, are at -420 to win their series, or 81%.

The math just doesn't add up. You know what odds equal 94% winning percentage? -1500
So we have an opportunity to wager on a bet at -280 odds that historically should be -1500?

I'm not a math genius per say, but where do I sign up??

(I'm betting 3x my normal bet amount on this one FYI)

_________________

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'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
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'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by eric8284:


You should wait for LAL to win game 3 and take MAVS series bet.  LAL ML tonight. GL.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

 
 
 
 
 
Ah, the mystique of Kobe and Phil.  They've done some great things together - in the past - but as for this season, I think they'll be remembered for being the leaders of the first Lakers team in 34 years to lose the first two games of a series at home. 


I will remember them for their 20 point home loss to the Bucks.  What a merry christmas that reverse with the 15pt rd dog winning outright to the under, made for
 
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Posted: #97
GL Bodio, I'm with you on the BULL$$$, maybe another under game but against all odds, my LAL will bounce back tonight
 
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Posted: #98
I'm with you on the Mavs/Bulls tonight Bodio 

I like the UNDERS tonight as well in both games.  This is less popular, but these four teams (Mavs/Lakers/Bulls/Hawks) all play defense well.  The Bulls/Hawks are a bit offensively challenged and the Lakers/Mavs went over by a basket in the first game and way under in the 2nd.

As for the Mavs series that's a great play.  I already took the Mavs to win the series at +290 so I'm riding that one out.  Although the Mavs in 4 at +450 seems awfully enticing.  Seriously they're 4.5/1 to win the next two games at home?!  Might make a value play on that.
 
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Posted: #99
GL Dude
 
 
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Posted: #100
you do realize they are back to back champs right?
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