2016 record: 12-3
This will likely be my last NBA play of the year unless something else incredibly attractive comes up. I love capping Rutgers/Minnesota games (injuries galore, massive losing streaks and sex tapes), not these very public playoff games.
Having said that, as I've noted before, I LOVE Game 1 and Game 7 in a playoff series.
Game 1 sets the tone (most of the time) and adjustments have not yet been made.
Game 7 is for all the marbles and you get maximum effort from both teams (most of the time...Miami was shi* today).
There are three reasons why I love this play:
1. Revenge
Yes, it's cliché. It's been said a million times. And still, it is no less true in certain situations. OKC should come into this game still extremely irked at how they lost the NBA Game of the Year to Golden State on national television on February 27th. A bone-headed foul by KD and one of the greatest OT shots in history did them in ( I capped that game and we still won by .5 pt with the 3.5).
"But Scal, OKC had their revenge game on March 3rd and lost!"
Let me say something about that spot. First, the initial loss to GS was incredibly deflating. Getting blown out motivates teams NOT losing extreme nailbiters.
Look at OKC after Game 1 of Spurs series. I can posit that if the Spurs won that game by a mere 10, the OKC in subsequent games could have been very different. But getting destroyed the way they did sparked something deep within them.
So the revenge spot for OKC vs. GS on March 3rd was watered down. OKC was on a weird 4 game road trip going to Sacto, then the Clippers, then Golden State and finally Milwaukee of all places.
PLUS, and this should not be overlooked, it was on a B2B for OKC. The Warriors were rested and trying to tie the all-time 44th straight home win that night which they did.
That game also meant a lot to the Warriors to send a message their first win was no fluke (which in a sense, it was). It meant so much after beating them twice it looks like they partied a little too hard because after that game they suffered one of the biggest regular season upsets ever to the Lakers.
So the West Coast road trip, no rest, and the Warriors going for a record number of home wins, along with sending a message really put OKC in a very tough spot.
True revenge for OKC for the Game of the Year loss comes in Game 1 tonight!
Now for the second reason...
2. Game 1 of the Spurs series.
The Thunder were brutalized in Game 1 losing by 32. The way the Spurs walked all over them, it could have been a 50 pt loss.
OKC left it all on the floor the next game and took it down (minus the conversation about the inbounding controversy).
The point is, they played their best basketball of the year in that series after Game 1 and it's not even close to compare any stretch to it during the regular season. They then had to be the ones to do the brutalizing in Game 6 and hold off a furious comeback to win the series.
That Game 1 put them in a ridiculously deep hole and I simply can't see them allowing that hole to be redug against a more dangerous Golden State team with a nonchalant loss here and a "Well we only need one of two on their court attitude" post game press conference comment.
If they want to win this series (and there is a possibility they could and you can't say that anyone in the NBA except the Spurs?/OKC/Cavs right now), I believe they have to treat this Game 1 as a must-win.
Throw the kitchen sink at them and then some, especially off revenge and especially without allowing Kerr to make adjustments (which he will do in every subsequent game like every good coach).
Which leads to the final point...
3. The line
It's rare but this is a lazy line.
Vegas does not know what to do with this line. Traditionally, during the regular season when a good team at home is playing a middling team, the line is set at 7. It's an industry standard.
OKC is no middling team folks. This is the PEAK OKC. And are the Warriors peak Golden State right now? I wouldn't say so. Curry is involved with that statement obviously but going down 16-2 in Game 4? Yes they won but still...16-2???...
Having to struggle to put away a very game Blazer team who could have thrown in the towel like the Pelicans last year in the final game but still got within 7.5 themselves in Game 5 with a 132-125 final. That game is typically the 'beat them behind the woodshed game' for the home team where the confetti falls. No confetti fell until the buzzer in that one. The Blazers came to play.
Do you want to know what the line was on March 3rd in Golden State in the 'revenge game' (that wasn't really the true revenge game as noted)?
+7.5 OKC....just like tonight.
Again, that's against OKC who was coming off a B2B, with the Warriors trying to set a home winning streak record, with OKC traveling on a West Coast trip, and (and this is key), an OKC team coming into that game having lost 5 of 7.
You had a low confidence, befuddled OKC team struggling to find it's identity vs. this team getting the same amount of points that is PEAK OKC, PEAK KD and PEAK West (with a sprinkle of mini-peak Steven Adams playing his best ball).
And you get the SAME line WITH all the Western Conference Finals playoff intensity too?
That folks, is a lazy line.
Why is it lazy? Because Vegas doesn't always have all the answers.
And +7.5 is not chump change folks. Games end on 4 and 7 in the NBA because of late fouling and free throws. That's why these lines of 4/4.5 and 7/7.5 are more prevalent than others. And We get .5 over 7 in a game OKC should be going all out to win.
Enough said!
The pick:
OKC +7.5 over Warriors
Hot Forum Topics
