Posted:
#1
3 picks I have for tonight
Vucevic O32.5 Points & Rebounds
Lakers 1H +5
Utah 1Q -2
Good luck tonight folks
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Posted:
#4
Figured I should write my logic behind the picks to potentially be of some help to others.
Vucevic O32.5 Points & Rebounds
I looked at the last 7 Raptor games to compare the previous center who played the most minutes on the opponent and adjusted the points and rebounds to a 48 minute value. When tossing out the top and bottom performer in order to exclude any extremes, my calculations showed that centers averaged 8% more than their season average points/rebounds per 48 minutes. Vucevic has averaged 33.5 points/rebounds since joining the Bulls and if plays 8% higher than that value would end up with a calculated 36.2 points/rebounds today which is 11.35% above the line I bet.
Lakers 1H +5
The Lakers over their last 5 games have a full game average point margin of 0.0 but the first half average point margin is +4.8. The Heat over their last 5 games have a full game average point margin of +4.8 but only 1/8th of that point margin occurs in the first half. Based off this it appears of late the Lakers overperform in the first half and underperform in the 2nd half while the Heat do the opposite. Hoping this continues and the Lakers can keep it close early.
Utah 1Q -2
The Blazers over their last 5 games have a full game average point margin of +8.2 but over this span are actually trailing by 4.6 points per game in the first quarter. The Jazz over their last 5 games have a full game average point margin of 9.0 of which 42.2% comes in the first quarter. Hoping the trend of fast starts for the Jazz and slow starts for the Blazers continues.
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