Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I'm typing with my thumbs so this will be short but I wanted to share this pick.
I do not take these picks lightly. If the game doesn't involve the Knicks or the Nets, I have to have watched the team I like for several games before I do a write-up.
I've followed this team for about 7 games and now is the time to strike while the iron is hot.
Take the Lakers +7.
Several reasons and I'll keep them short and sweet:
1. Conventional square thinking: Rondo back = Celtics much better and they win in a romp at home.
Wrong. Rondo will be on a minutes restriction to about 5 minutes a quarter. That will upset the flow of the actual starter Avery Bradley and the chemistry of the team itself which needs adjusting. Also, the head coach had already come out and said to not expect Rondo to be a world beater tonight hinting he will be rusty after almost a year on the sidelines.
The +7 has a built in overreaction due to his return. Take the points.
2. Avery Bradley - Rondo in 15/20 minutes means Bradley gets the rest. Bradley is not a true PG. The true PG is gone to the Warriors. BUT, you say the Celtics just beat the Atlantic leading Raps with him starting!
The problem: that was the game right after the Crawford trade which many here know is always a game to jump on the team that just lost a key player (or traded one) because the replacement and the team in general come out more inspired.
Crawford had 20 in a starting Pg and Jared Sullenger had 25 and 20!!! Talk about inspired! Good for them! (You're gonna count on 25 and 20 tonight from Jared tonight to cover your 7?)
Guess how long that inspiration lasts? Usually ONE GAME. That game is done and over with and they won it. Add to that the Celtics needed to snap a NINE game losing streak along with it and you have all the inspiration you need, which dissipates with rusty Rondo's return which is inspiration for the future itself, but less so tonight.
Lost in that win is Bradley shot 8-21 and 67% from the line. He is a chucker at the PG position (since he is not a true Pg) and will cost the Celtics possessions tonight.
So you have more points built into this line for the home win and Bradley's play. Take the inflated 7.
3. Lastly, the Lakers lose Nick Young tonight. I say good. They weren't winning with him scoring 20 a game and can win without him. There is a reason no one came to his defense in the Sun's fight. He's a nut and not well-liked which gives us the exact opposite of what conventional thinking would dictate and what I mentioned for the Celtics above last game: tonight is the game the Lakers turn to play inspired ball without a key player catching 7 to boot.
More line inflation: Nick young out. Grab the 7.
4. Lastly, why the hell are the Celtics giving ANYONE 7!? They just lost 9 in a row! That alone, outside of all the writing above should give you major pause before picking the Celtics.
5. Lastly the Lakers are on a brutal losing run. They've lost 12 of 13 and 2 straight after the a** kicking they got from the Clippers.
BUT, against Cleveland, they covered and Luol Deng needed to give the Cavs 27 to win by two scoring 118.
A night later on a back to back against a team that will run you off the floor even without Bledsoe, they played neck and neck for 3.5 quarters and still got inside the number of 11 losing 121-114.
So they covered the last two and could have won both. The effort is there and the team desperately wants a W.
Their offense is there. It's the defense (embarrassing at that) that needs to tighten up and with 7 they don't even need to win if they come to play moderate D, which they haven't been doing but that will have to change. There is a lot of room for error with this line which makes me quite comfortable.
Offset the East Coast travel with the desperation of the Lakers, badly in need of a W on a six game losing streak (which puts this game right at the point they snapped their last 6 game losing streak...the 7th against the Jazz...the Celts are a bad team like the Jazz and the Lakers if anything, beat the bad ones at least.)
Finally, this, for all its history is still Lakers Celtics, a historic rivalry that will get the players to at least get inside this number and play with diginity of some sort...maybe but that is just grasping at straws but I thought if mention it.
I think the Lakers can win and with 7 and all the inflation above, I can't pass up the spread.
Ok, this write-up wasn't that short. All the better I have detailed reasons. The pick:
LAKERS +7 OVER CELTICS
thx for the rhyme n reason
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