The BEST (gambling) advice I ever got in my life......

Anyway, since I was a kid back then (20 yrs old maybe?) he'd always tell me to stay away from gambling because, as he put it, it was a suckers game and a losing proposition in the long run.  He'd always remind me to not get involved with it and he'd tell me the same thing all the time probably because he know that I "had the fever" as he used to call it and he didn't want me to get into any trouble.

But I'll always remember one thing he told me about betting the NBA as he found it to be true (having laid/taken bets for years and years).  He said when a team's #1 or even #2 star (in terms of scoring) gets injured, don't bet against the team on their 1st road game but bet against them on their 2nd road game (assuming it follows consecutively the 1st road game)...

Its been about 20 years since he told me that and I've placed no more than maybe a total 15 bets in the NBA (only because I hate the whole pro basketball product with a passion for reasons too numerous to mention here...but I digress).  In each and every one of those 15 or so occasions, it was the identical situational scenario that he had described to me.  Without hyperbole, being a wiseguy or simply making stuff up, all but I think 2 times (of 15) he was dead on and I won the bet.

If you have gotten to this point and are still reading my crappy attempt to "help out" with some anecdotal advice that has virtually (almost) never failed, then be advised that tomorrow (Monday at 1pm EDT) is just this same scenario.

@Boston Celtics (-2.5) vs Atlanta Hawks

You NBA junkies know more about this shi t than I do but suffice to say Al Horford leads the Hawks in scoring (and rebounding) and was injured 4 nights ago (out for season).  Simply put there is no more valuable player on ANY team (based on statistics anyway) than Horford is to the Hawks  Atlanta played their 1st road game without Horford (and lost 109-102) at Orlando yesterday and tomorrow will be their 2nd consecutive road game without him at Boston.

Celtics (-2.5) Large.

If this comes in and helps you out then cool .

If it does NOT work out and you want to come back into the thread after the game and tell me thanks for nothing, where can I get 5 minutes of my life back from reading your silly drivel, etc, etc, etc....that's cool with me too.

Best of luck to all...

The Shamrock will hopefully be the theme come tomorrow (Celtics)...

Breast, SeoulCap and M3....thanks.

It makes sense to me.. 

When a team's stud goes down, it's up to the rest of the guys to "step up" We've seen it time and time again, where the team missing their go-to guy seems to play with extra heart and energy. Understandable. 

We saw it play out when Atlanta played their first game without Horford, when they hosted the Bobcats. While the 'Cats pushed the Hawks to OT, the home team was able to get the win by riding big performances ( above their avg's) from Teague (20pts), Milsap (33!), Williams (28!), and Scott (18!). 

In their first road game, the Hawks played with a lot of heart to keep up with a motivated Orlando squad, but ultimately fell short (losing SU and failing to cover as 4pt dogs). This was their first taste of really, really, missing Horford, who was having a fantastic season, and really solidifying himself as their go-to guy in the clutch. Without him, not only are they missing his points and defense, but maybe most importantly, his terrific rebounding skills and defense. Missing a guy who can clean the glass on both sides of the court while shooting a high %  is huge. Those Teague runners that don't drop? He was there for the put-back. Those easy buckets from a fluid Atlanta offense? Hampered.  The ability to consistently draw a double-team and kick it out for the open 3? Gone.. or at least heavily diminished.  

Not to take away from the work that the rest of the guys are doing, but Horford was one of those guys who was doing even more than his big #'s implied. Without him, the rest of the Hawks will face more pressure from defenses, and more pressure when their shots aren't dropping and offensive rebounds aren't there to lead to easy points. 

Rebounding wasn't one of their strong points even with Horford, (one of the reasons they've been giving up a lot of points), but now it just got a lot harder. The Hawks were 23rd for rebounds on O, and 19th for rebounds on D.  We've seen the Hawks get out-rebounded two straight games, by Charlotte (12th on O, 25th on D), and Orlando (19th on O, 21st on D). 

Another note: The Celtics beat the Hawks in Atlanta back in November. Despite taking 21 fewer shots than the Hawks, and committing 19 TO's, the Celtics STILL won by 7. A big reason for that? The Celtics ability to grab defensive rebounds. They don't score a ton of points, but they don't make it easy for their opponents either (defensively: 5th in points allowed, and 5th in defending the 3).  

I absolutely love the Celtics in this spot. The "revenge" angle is one of the most over-valued IMO, and I think this short line for the Celtics-Hawks matchup is set up to sell a story. The books want bettors to think this will be a close game ... and we're seeing a lot of people bite. Any bigger for the Celtics and bettors would know something is up... instead, we'll see a lot of people taking the points and Hawks ML: "The Hawks are better than Cleveland! -and Boston barely beat them!"   

Early action is coming in heavy on the Hawks, and I'm sure the books are loving that. 

I wholeheartedly agree that the Celtics are the side to back, and I will be doing the same, going big on the Celtics. 

As for the over/under.. I lean to the under here. It won't be as big as my plays on the Celtics, but we're seeing an inflated total after the C's have had a couple high-scoring opponents come into town. In a game that I think the Hawks will fail to score more than their average (103.6), I gotta lean with the under.. but again, not nearly as big as I will be taking the Celtics.

Best of luck, let's hope the Celtics come to play and end their year on a solid note.