I live in Canada...yea it sucks you guys can't use Pinny...best book there is imo. Yea I usually don't buy points in Bball....but 1 is kind of useless. Might end up playing the ML at Betfair at +110
Gotcha. I agree. Pinny is the best. Sharp as heck though but great odds. Make sure you have a square book like BoDog or BetUS at your disposal too..
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
I live in Canada...yea it sucks you guys can't use Pinny...best book there is imo. Yea I usually don't buy points in Bball....but 1 is kind of useless. Might end up playing the ML at Betfair at +110
Gotcha. I agree. Pinny is the best. Sharp as heck though but great odds. Make sure you have a square book like BoDog or BetUS at your disposal too..
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
0
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
Hey Bodio, great stuff, just quickly wondering how do you project your lines? As in what factors do you take into account when creating your own lines? Do you do it walters style and use a statistical model on a computer or is it more just your general knowledge and experience of the sport?
Advanced statistical model, excel based. The reason I say advanced, is because it took me awhile to create it and it has a lot of factors. The bare minimum is the MOV (Margin Of Victory) and SOS (Strength Of Schedule). Then it accounts for the 4 key factors to winning basketball games: EFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FTA/FGA. Only the 'real' discrepancies are accounted for, like team A has the #1 EFG% on offense, while team B is #20 in EFG% on defense.
This provides a good starting point and also the 'peace of mind' when it comes to analyzing lines (that's why I feel this is so important. See DB2033's comments on the first page. He's obviously just looking at wins/losses in the last few games and making a judgement call. If he truly had some data, he's see that this line on the HEAT game is way off)...After that you, just have to handicapp the 'shit' out of the game (excuse my french), focus on RELEVANT key trends, scheduling (very important in NBA), revenge scenarios (when applicable...not all teams react to these the same), 'line-value' from bookies' perspective, potential 'look-ahead' spots (not as big in the NBA as in college), etc....
HOpe this helps.
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Quote Originally Posted by NBPay:
Hey Bodio, great stuff, just quickly wondering how do you project your lines? As in what factors do you take into account when creating your own lines? Do you do it walters style and use a statistical model on a computer or is it more just your general knowledge and experience of the sport?
Advanced statistical model, excel based. The reason I say advanced, is because it took me awhile to create it and it has a lot of factors. The bare minimum is the MOV (Margin Of Victory) and SOS (Strength Of Schedule). Then it accounts for the 4 key factors to winning basketball games: EFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FTA/FGA. Only the 'real' discrepancies are accounted for, like team A has the #1 EFG% on offense, while team B is #20 in EFG% on defense.
This provides a good starting point and also the 'peace of mind' when it comes to analyzing lines (that's why I feel this is so important. See DB2033's comments on the first page. He's obviously just looking at wins/losses in the last few games and making a judgement call. If he truly had some data, he's see that this line on the HEAT game is way off)...After that you, just have to handicapp the 'shit' out of the game (excuse my french), focus on RELEVANT key trends, scheduling (very important in NBA), revenge scenarios (when applicable...not all teams react to these the same), 'line-value' from bookies' perspective, potential 'look-ahead' spots (not as big in the NBA as in college), etc....
Great write up, Bodio. The 'smart' bet is LA, while the 'winning' bet is Miami. Hate to root for that team, but against the Lakers I'll find a way. Let's get it.
GL
hehe...isn't the 'smart' bet also the 'winning' bet?
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Quote Originally Posted by chasman:
Great write up, Bodio. The 'smart' bet is LA, while the 'winning' bet is Miami. Hate to root for that team, but against the Lakers I'll find a way. Let's get it.
GL
hehe...isn't the 'smart' bet also the 'winning' bet?
"This is the NBA: No Boys Allowed. Big boys don't cry. But, if you're going to do it, do it in the toilet where no one can see." – Phil Jackson on Heat players crying after Bulls loss.
Seeing and hearing this yesterday I couldn't believe it. An ego-maniac like Phil Jackson talking smack about ANOTHER NBA team. I guess winning 10 championships allows you to pretty much do and say whatever you want, but I was a bit surprised he was saying this about a team that the Lakers are about to play. "No boys allowed" - BURN! "Big boys don't cry" - DOUBLE BURN! “(Cry) in the toilet where no one can see you" - WOW! Watching Phil's smug face as he was saying this, got me riled up yesterday, and I hate MIAMI (from a fan's perspective). If it 'ticked' me off, how do you think the Miami players feel? Honestly, if LeWade and Company don't 'get up' for this one, I think this team just needs to give up trying the rest of the season. I see this as the BIGGEST statement game of the year for them. Remember, how prior to Heat playing Orlando in the 3rd meeting of the season, LeBron specifically talked about the fact that he remembers what "Ron Jeremy" and the Orlando organization have been saying about him and Miami post 'The Decision'. He played with an 'edge' in that game, scoring 51 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out 8 assists. Do I expect a similar effort tonight? Absolutely!
Alright, enough with the 'fluff' reasoning, and let's get to some 'tangible' analysis here. There is tremendous ‘line-value’ in this game. Earlier this season, when Heat played @ LA, Lakers were -3.5 point favorites. With ‘standard adjustment’, they should be +2.5 point dogs on the road. Well, they’re -2.5 road favorites in this case. Did the Lakers really improve and/or Miami regress a full 5 points, since that Dec 25th meeting? Of course not, but here’s where public perception played a big part. The public has been lining up all season long to back the HEAT this year. No matter what the circumstance, majority of bets would be on Miami, especially when they played at home. 5 point favorites against a solid Bulls team? No problem, the public pounds Miami. 8.5 point favorites against a really good Blazers team? “Can you make it a nice even number like 9 please” – was the public’s response, as again 65%+ were on the Heat. But guess what? All of a sudden, the public completely abandoned Miami. Why? Because they’re playing the big, bad Lakers, who are seeking ‘revenge’ and have won 8 straight games. All of a sudden, only 17% are backing the Heat, while 83% of all the bets are on the LakeShow. WOW! First time all season long that Miami are ‘dogs’ at home and all of a sudden they’re not getting any public love. Lakers are ‘hot’, Heat are ‘not’! Lakers won 8 in a row, Heat lost 5 consecutive games. Lakers are ‘tough guys’, Miami are ‘cry-babies’… Phil’s words, not mine! ? Well, in this instance I’m going to back the ‘cold’ team full of ‘cry-babies’ and fade the ‘hot’ one. No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone, even the Lakers. In my opinion, the books were forced to raise this # way too high and still everyone was betting the Lakers…until this morning that is. All of a sudden, it started dropping. First went to +2, then +1.5, and now sits at +1….Hmmmm… Some serious ‘Reverse Line Movement’ in this one! Are the ‘sharps’ pounding Miami? Did the ‘sharps’ set up the ‘middle’ by betting on the Lakers when the early # came out? Who knows? Possibly. I don’t know this because unlike a number of handicappers that claim to have a ton of contacts in ‘Vegas’, I have none. What I do know is that Miami +2.5 holds tremendous ‘value’, and being sharp is all about taking ‘value’ bets. In the long-run, ‘Sharp players’, ‘Wiseguys’, ‘Big Money’ (whatever else you want to call them), always come out ahead because they are able to calculate ‘value’ efficiently and are not afraid to make bets when the right situation presents itself. I strongly feel that we have this situation today. Even at +1, the Heat are providing almost 4 points of ‘value’ based on my model. At +2.5, I have almost 5.5 points of ‘value’. As bad as Miami is playing right now, I just can’t pass this up.
First and foremost it was Erik Spolestra that said the Heat were crying in the Locker room all Phil Jackson did was what everybody in the free world did upon hearing that he laughed. Remember when Wade and Lebron won the bronze in the 06 world games? When those dudes ran into adversity they crumbled not excelled. I don't like going out on a limb and picking a team in turmoil to beat a team on a hot streak especially when the team that is on the hot streak are the more proven team with better coaching, deeper bench, bigger and proven better in closer. All your points have nothing to do with bball and everything to do with the human pysche if this was a chess match between Freud and a ape I might heed your advice but this is bball you have the worlds greatest closer taking the nba's best road team to a struggling unproven pretenders house that beat them. I think Miami will eventually figure it out just not tonight. Before you really can appreciate love you have to have your heart broken and tonight the Kobe Bean Bryant the HeartBreak kid is going to teach the King and Wade a lesson in humility.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2010-2011 NBA Record: 107 - 73 @59%for+26.7 Units
Thur, 03/10
Miami Heat +2.5
"This is the NBA: No Boys Allowed. Big boys don't cry. But, if you're going to do it, do it in the toilet where no one can see." – Phil Jackson on Heat players crying after Bulls loss.
Seeing and hearing this yesterday I couldn't believe it. An ego-maniac like Phil Jackson talking smack about ANOTHER NBA team. I guess winning 10 championships allows you to pretty much do and say whatever you want, but I was a bit surprised he was saying this about a team that the Lakers are about to play. "No boys allowed" - BURN! "Big boys don't cry" - DOUBLE BURN! “(Cry) in the toilet where no one can see you" - WOW! Watching Phil's smug face as he was saying this, got me riled up yesterday, and I hate MIAMI (from a fan's perspective). If it 'ticked' me off, how do you think the Miami players feel? Honestly, if LeWade and Company don't 'get up' for this one, I think this team just needs to give up trying the rest of the season. I see this as the BIGGEST statement game of the year for them. Remember, how prior to Heat playing Orlando in the 3rd meeting of the season, LeBron specifically talked about the fact that he remembers what "Ron Jeremy" and the Orlando organization have been saying about him and Miami post 'The Decision'. He played with an 'edge' in that game, scoring 51 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out 8 assists. Do I expect a similar effort tonight? Absolutely!
Alright, enough with the 'fluff' reasoning, and let's get to some 'tangible' analysis here. There is tremendous ‘line-value’ in this game. Earlier this season, when Heat played @ LA, Lakers were -3.5 point favorites. With ‘standard adjustment’, they should be +2.5 point dogs on the road. Well, they’re -2.5 road favorites in this case. Did the Lakers really improve and/or Miami regress a full 5 points, since that Dec 25th meeting? Of course not, but here’s where public perception played a big part. The public has been lining up all season long to back the HEAT this year. No matter what the circumstance, majority of bets would be on Miami, especially when they played at home. 5 point favorites against a solid Bulls team? No problem, the public pounds Miami. 8.5 point favorites against a really good Blazers team? “Can you make it a nice even number like 9 please” – was the public’s response, as again 65%+ were on the Heat. But guess what? All of a sudden, the public completely abandoned Miami. Why? Because they’re playing the big, bad Lakers, who are seeking ‘revenge’ and have won 8 straight games. All of a sudden, only 17% are backing the Heat, while 83% of all the bets are on the LakeShow. WOW! First time all season long that Miami are ‘dogs’ at home and all of a sudden they’re not getting any public love. Lakers are ‘hot’, Heat are ‘not’! Lakers won 8 in a row, Heat lost 5 consecutive games. Lakers are ‘tough guys’, Miami are ‘cry-babies’… Phil’s words, not mine! ? Well, in this instance I’m going to back the ‘cold’ team full of ‘cry-babies’ and fade the ‘hot’ one. No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone, even the Lakers. In my opinion, the books were forced to raise this # way too high and still everyone was betting the Lakers…until this morning that is. All of a sudden, it started dropping. First went to +2, then +1.5, and now sits at +1….Hmmmm… Some serious ‘Reverse Line Movement’ in this one! Are the ‘sharps’ pounding Miami? Did the ‘sharps’ set up the ‘middle’ by betting on the Lakers when the early # came out? Who knows? Possibly. I don’t know this because unlike a number of handicappers that claim to have a ton of contacts in ‘Vegas’, I have none. What I do know is that Miami +2.5 holds tremendous ‘value’, and being sharp is all about taking ‘value’ bets. In the long-run, ‘Sharp players’, ‘Wiseguys’, ‘Big Money’ (whatever else you want to call them), always come out ahead because they are able to calculate ‘value’ efficiently and are not afraid to make bets when the right situation presents itself. I strongly feel that we have this situation today. Even at +1, the Heat are providing almost 4 points of ‘value’ based on my model. At +2.5, I have almost 5.5 points of ‘value’. As bad as Miami is playing right now, I just can’t pass this up.
First and foremost it was Erik Spolestra that said the Heat were crying in the Locker room all Phil Jackson did was what everybody in the free world did upon hearing that he laughed. Remember when Wade and Lebron won the bronze in the 06 world games? When those dudes ran into adversity they crumbled not excelled. I don't like going out on a limb and picking a team in turmoil to beat a team on a hot streak especially when the team that is on the hot streak are the more proven team with better coaching, deeper bench, bigger and proven better in closer. All your points have nothing to do with bball and everything to do with the human pysche if this was a chess match between Freud and a ape I might heed your advice but this is bball you have the worlds greatest closer taking the nba's best road team to a struggling unproven pretenders house that beat them. I think Miami will eventually figure it out just not tonight. Before you really can appreciate love you have to have your heart broken and tonight the Kobe Bean Bryant the HeartBreak kid is going to teach the King and Wade a lesson in humility.
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
2 things:
#1: Bynum did play in that first meeting. He came off the bench
#2: Did you really just bring up an All-Star game? Really>?
0
Quote Originally Posted by MakeitRain84:
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
2 things:
#1: Bynum did play in that first meeting. He came off the bench
#2: Did you really just bring up an All-Star game? Really>?
First and foremost it was Erik Spolestra that said the Heat were crying in the Locker room all Phil Jackson did was what everybody in the free world did upon hearing that he laughed. Remember when Wade and Lebron won the bronze in the 06 world games? When those dudes ran into adversity they crumbled not excelled. I don't like going out on a limb and picking a team in turmoil to beat a team on a hot streak especially when the team that is on the hot streak are the more proven team with better coaching, deeper bench, bigger and proven better in closer. All your points have nothing to do with bball and everything to do with the human pysche if this was a chess match between Freud and a ape I might heed your advice but this is bball you have the worlds greatest closer taking the nba's best road team to a struggling unproven pretenders house that beat them. I think Miami will eventually figure it out just not tonight. Before you really can appreciate love you have to have your heart broken and tonight the Kobe Bean Bryant the HeartBreak kid is going to teach the King and Wade a lesson in humility.
Absolutely right! My 'angle' in this game, is truly ommitting stats and current trends, etc. I'm focused on how I expect Heat players to respond to Phil Jackson's bullshit. You're absolutely right. LeBron already showed us once how he responds to people talking shit. Why won't he do it again? By the way, you missed the part of my write-up where I do talk about LeBron's and Wade's recent performances against Kobe and the Lakers. There's a reason why Kobe and Co are 0-5 ATS against Wade and Miami. There's also a reasn why Kobe and Co were 0-2 ATS/SU against LeBron and the Cavs. Differen teams? Sure. But look at Cavs now without Lebron. I would argue that his supporting cast is stronger now than it was at Cleveland.
Final point....you and everyone else that thinks Lakers are such an easy play today. There's a reason why Heat are only +1 tonight, with 25% of all the bets on them. Just think about it....it's not as easy as you think
Good luck buddy.
Go LeWade!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by 702_Capper:
First and foremost it was Erik Spolestra that said the Heat were crying in the Locker room all Phil Jackson did was what everybody in the free world did upon hearing that he laughed. Remember when Wade and Lebron won the bronze in the 06 world games? When those dudes ran into adversity they crumbled not excelled. I don't like going out on a limb and picking a team in turmoil to beat a team on a hot streak especially when the team that is on the hot streak are the more proven team with better coaching, deeper bench, bigger and proven better in closer. All your points have nothing to do with bball and everything to do with the human pysche if this was a chess match between Freud and a ape I might heed your advice but this is bball you have the worlds greatest closer taking the nba's best road team to a struggling unproven pretenders house that beat them. I think Miami will eventually figure it out just not tonight. Before you really can appreciate love you have to have your heart broken and tonight the Kobe Bean Bryant the HeartBreak kid is going to teach the King and Wade a lesson in humility.
Absolutely right! My 'angle' in this game, is truly ommitting stats and current trends, etc. I'm focused on how I expect Heat players to respond to Phil Jackson's bullshit. You're absolutely right. LeBron already showed us once how he responds to people talking shit. Why won't he do it again? By the way, you missed the part of my write-up where I do talk about LeBron's and Wade's recent performances against Kobe and the Lakers. There's a reason why Kobe and Co are 0-5 ATS against Wade and Miami. There's also a reasn why Kobe and Co were 0-2 ATS/SU against LeBron and the Cavs. Differen teams? Sure. But look at Cavs now without Lebron. I would argue that his supporting cast is stronger now than it was at Cleveland.
Final point....you and everyone else that thinks Lakers are such an easy play today. There's a reason why Heat are only +1 tonight, with 25% of all the bets on them. Just think about it....it's not as easy as you think
#1: Bynum did play in that first meeting. He came off the bench
#2: Did you really just bring up an All-Star game? Really>?
Lakers are a team that get's fire hot and plays in bunches Bynum did play but he was no where near 100% and Gasol was worn down too from playing all those early minutes they lost to Milwaukee by 20pts if that's not indicative of how badly the lakers were playing then compared to now I don't know what else to say. Have you seen Bynum lately avg 16rebs, 4 blks over current win streak he finally looks healthy and is completely buying into team concept less focus on scoring more focus on defense. When Bynum plays at this level the Lakers are pretty much unbeatable and the Heat are in total disarray no-offense continuity for god-sake there were grown men crying in there locker room (if that is not a sign of a weak minded team I don't know what is) you can burn your money if you like but don't get others to jump off the same cliff you chose....
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
2 things:
#1: Bynum did play in that first meeting. He came off the bench
#2: Did you really just bring up an All-Star game? Really>?
Lakers are a team that get's fire hot and plays in bunches Bynum did play but he was no where near 100% and Gasol was worn down too from playing all those early minutes they lost to Milwaukee by 20pts if that's not indicative of how badly the lakers were playing then compared to now I don't know what else to say. Have you seen Bynum lately avg 16rebs, 4 blks over current win streak he finally looks healthy and is completely buying into team concept less focus on scoring more focus on defense. When Bynum plays at this level the Lakers are pretty much unbeatable and the Heat are in total disarray no-offense continuity for god-sake there were grown men crying in there locker room (if that is not a sign of a weak minded team I don't know what is) you can burn your money if you like but don't get others to jump off the same cliff you chose....
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
LOL your seriously gonna bring up the all star game
0
Quote Originally Posted by MakeitRain84:
lakers all the way last time these two teams met lakers were without andrew bynum and the lakers are just scorching right now. For those of you who watched the all star game kobe schooled dwayne the whole game until he sprained his ankle
LOL your seriously gonna bring up the all star game
Absolutely right! My 'angle' in this game, is truly ommitting stats and current trends, etc. I'm focused on how I expect Heat players to respond to Phil Jackson's bullshit. You're absolutely right. LeBron already showed us once how he responds to people talking shit. Why won't he do it again? By the way, you missed the part of my write-up where I do talk about LeBron's and Wade's recent performances against Kobe and the Lakers. There's a reason why Kobe and Co are 0-5 ATS against Wade and Miami. There's also a reasn why Kobe and Co were 0-2 ATS/SU against LeBron and the Cavs. Differen teams? Sure. But look at Cavs now without Lebron. I would argue that his supporting cast is stronger now than it was at Cleveland.
I think the Heat are more talented then the Cavs were last year but there definitely not a better team check the records Cavs were virtually unbeatable at home last year. I watched LeWade choke harder than I ever saw supposed superstar ball players choke in the summer of 06 when they pretty much disgraced US basketball and got ran off the court by Puerto Rico, Spain, Greece gimme a break. They couldn't win gold until they went and recruited Kobe. Teamwork, leadership, coaching are vastly underrated don't believe all the hype about bets going here and there how do you know that the numbers posted are truly representative of the actual split you don't its the internet you can post whatever you want... Stick to basktetball that's all we can do and its absolutely retarded to take the Heat against the Lakers. If you want to jump by all means frogger hop your happy ass on that highway just make sure to look both ways because there are trucks out here with your name written all over there tires.
Final point....you and everyone else that thinks Lakers are such an easy play today. There's a reason why Heat are only +1 tonight, with 25% of all the bets on them. Just think about it....it's not as easy as you think
Good luck buddy.
Go LeWade!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Absolutely right! My 'angle' in this game, is truly ommitting stats and current trends, etc. I'm focused on how I expect Heat players to respond to Phil Jackson's bullshit. You're absolutely right. LeBron already showed us once how he responds to people talking shit. Why won't he do it again? By the way, you missed the part of my write-up where I do talk about LeBron's and Wade's recent performances against Kobe and the Lakers. There's a reason why Kobe and Co are 0-5 ATS against Wade and Miami. There's also a reasn why Kobe and Co were 0-2 ATS/SU against LeBron and the Cavs. Differen teams? Sure. But look at Cavs now without Lebron. I would argue that his supporting cast is stronger now than it was at Cleveland.
I think the Heat are more talented then the Cavs were last year but there definitely not a better team check the records Cavs were virtually unbeatable at home last year. I watched LeWade choke harder than I ever saw supposed superstar ball players choke in the summer of 06 when they pretty much disgraced US basketball and got ran off the court by Puerto Rico, Spain, Greece gimme a break. They couldn't win gold until they went and recruited Kobe. Teamwork, leadership, coaching are vastly underrated don't believe all the hype about bets going here and there how do you know that the numbers posted are truly representative of the actual split you don't its the internet you can post whatever you want... Stick to basktetball that's all we can do and its absolutely retarded to take the Heat against the Lakers. If you want to jump by all means frogger hop your happy ass on that highway just make sure to look both ways because there are trucks out here with your name written all over there tires.
Final point....you and everyone else that thinks Lakers are such an easy play today. There's a reason why Heat are only +1 tonight, with 25% of all the bets on them. Just think about it....it's not as easy as you think
I like the over but will have to play the Heat too. Usually don't play a side and a o/u for the same game but I will have to make an exception tonight..Thanks for the write up on the game
0
I like the over but will have to play the Heat too. Usually don't play a side and a o/u for the same game but I will have to make an exception tonight..Thanks for the write up on the game
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