Also, any NCAA today? Your picks have always been strong there.
Sorry, forgot to comment on your first question.
Why do I love +2.5 Heat? Well, because in a tight game, we're getting 2 buckets with a home dog who I think should be -2.5 / -3 point favorite.
At +1, we're getting ZERO buckets unfortunately.
I think it's going to be a close game, and it might come down to 1 or 2 shots. That's why +2.5 or even +2 is such a critical #.
Do I still think there's value at +1? YES, absolutely. But not as much as at +2.5 If you're going to play it, bet a little smaller amount than you normally would....
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Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysLearning:
line is now at +1 Miami. Still a value?
Also, any NCAA today? Your picks have always been strong there.
Sorry, forgot to comment on your first question.
Why do I love +2.5 Heat? Well, because in a tight game, we're getting 2 buckets with a home dog who I think should be -2.5 / -3 point favorite.
At +1, we're getting ZERO buckets unfortunately.
I think it's going to be a close game, and it might come down to 1 or 2 shots. That's why +2.5 or even +2 is such a critical #.
Do I still think there's value at +1? YES, absolutely. But not as much as at +2.5 If you're going to play it, bet a little smaller amount than you normally would....
No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone,
hey are not its pk most places now..
Bottom line is that Lakers are playing their 3rd road-game of a 4-game ‘road-trip’,
with a day off before every game so for..nothing at all to even mention here.
The Lakers are one of the best plays Ive seen all year..actually they are they best bet ive seen so far this season..and ill be making a max play on them with confidence tonight.
It's actually +1 and +1.5 in places like BoDog. Still, Heat shouldn't be a 'dog' here.
I understand Lakers had a day-off in between games. My point is that this team has been on the road for 5 days or so, while Heat have been at home for a week. Travel takes it's toll. Sure these are professional athletes and they're used to it, but I'm not talking about this being the MOST critical factor. It's a small factor, but it's something that I like to consider.
One of the best plays on the Lakers eh? That's coming from someone that thinks teams get 5 points worse in 'skill level' over a course of 7 games.
GO HEAT!
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Quote Originally Posted by DT3324:
No way, should Miami be getting +2.5 points at home against anyone,
hey are not its pk most places now..
Bottom line is that Lakers are playing their 3rd road-game of a 4-game ‘road-trip’,
with a day off before every game so for..nothing at all to even mention here.
The Lakers are one of the best plays Ive seen all year..actually they are they best bet ive seen so far this season..and ill be making a max play on them with confidence tonight.
It's actually +1 and +1.5 in places like BoDog. Still, Heat shouldn't be a 'dog' here.
I understand Lakers had a day-off in between games. My point is that this team has been on the road for 5 days or so, while Heat have been at home for a week. Travel takes it's toll. Sure these are professional athletes and they're used to it, but I'm not talking about this being the MOST critical factor. It's a small factor, but it's something that I like to consider.
One of the best plays on the Lakers eh? That's coming from someone that thinks teams get 5 points worse in 'skill level' over a course of 7 games.
I dont know. This MIA/LAK game can go either way. i think a small bet on either would just make it interesting. NO real big bet on this one. I'm leaning MIA but really Lakers are playing well so..
Small bet for me
I like NYY today why are they getting so many points?
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I dont know. This MIA/LAK game can go either way. i think a small bet on either would just make it interesting. NO real big bet on this one. I'm leaning MIA but really Lakers are playing well so..
Small bet for me
I like NYY today why are they getting so many points?
ONLY a FOOL would bet the HEAT tonight...if your that off on this game please just watch it don't lose your cash in this spot...you could not find a worse spot to bet your cash... Lakers or watch this heat players...you'll think me after the game...Lakers had this game circled before this trip started and are playing Championship BBall right now. The Heat cant get out of there own way. The Lakers have the Bigs to pound this team down low the the athletes to handle them outside..Lakers 109-99 after being up 20 plus in forth quarter...
I guess I'm just a FOOL!
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Quote Originally Posted by DT3324:
ONLY a FOOL would bet the HEAT tonight...if your that off on this game please just watch it don't lose your cash in this spot...you could not find a worse spot to bet your cash... Lakers or watch this heat players...you'll think me after the game...Lakers had this game circled before this trip started and are playing Championship BBall right now. The Heat cant get out of there own way. The Lakers have the Bigs to pound this team down low the the athletes to handle them outside..Lakers 109-99 after being up 20 plus in forth quarter...
tailing you on these one BODIO... what do you think on NYK/DAL game? which team? & over/under have a value? thanks
I tried REALLY hard to take the Mavs in this game. Both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 nights, both have some injury issues (Marion is questionable and he's one of their best defenders), and both are pretty hot right now. Billups injury is really not a big deal because Toney Douglas is playing excellent 'ball' right now. I know the public is on the Knicks, but the 'public' doesn't really move lines, at least not a 2point shift. Dallas went from -7 to -5 for a reason (part of which could be Marion's injury). Is it time to back the Knicks? No of course not, because losing 2 points of 'line-value' is tough. Is it a good time to back Dallas? No, because Knicks are hot and have tremendous trends when it comes to 'revenge', road-games, and b2b. Usually I don't like fading a 'hot' team (yes, I'm doing it tonight when I'm fading the Lakers), and Knicks are HOT right now.
I have this game at -6 Mavs by the way, so not much 'line-value' from my perspective.
To me this is an easy PASS!
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Quote Originally Posted by 4zUre:
tailing you on these one BODIO... what do you think on NYK/DAL game? which team? & over/under have a value? thanks
I tried REALLY hard to take the Mavs in this game. Both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 nights, both have some injury issues (Marion is questionable and he's one of their best defenders), and both are pretty hot right now. Billups injury is really not a big deal because Toney Douglas is playing excellent 'ball' right now. I know the public is on the Knicks, but the 'public' doesn't really move lines, at least not a 2point shift. Dallas went from -7 to -5 for a reason (part of which could be Marion's injury). Is it time to back the Knicks? No of course not, because losing 2 points of 'line-value' is tough. Is it a good time to back Dallas? No, because Knicks are hot and have tremendous trends when it comes to 'revenge', road-games, and b2b. Usually I don't like fading a 'hot' team (yes, I'm doing it tonight when I'm fading the Lakers), and Knicks are HOT right now.
I have this game at -6 Mavs by the way, so not much 'line-value' from my perspective.
From a fan's perspective, I dislike Miami as well.
But from an investor's perspective, I really like the Heat tonight. Remember: sell high and buy low -- Stock Market 101 :)
very true. i really wish i locked this in earlier at +2.5 but I only had a lean on Heat at that point...gonna hold out hoping for a +2 before gametime...at worst ill pay the -117 on Pinny to get the 2 or just hit the ML at plus odds.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
From a fan's perspective, I dislike Miami as well.
But from an investor's perspective, I really like the Heat tonight. Remember: sell high and buy low -- Stock Market 101 :)
very true. i really wish i locked this in earlier at +2.5 but I only had a lean on Heat at that point...gonna hold out hoping for a +2 before gametime...at worst ill pay the -117 on Pinny to get the 2 or just hit the ML at plus odds.
Thanks for the perspective Bodio. This may be a game time decision for me. I've been burned by the "Heat" being "Cold" before. As they say, if you can't stand the Heat....
Either way, GL. Always appreciate your viewpoint.
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Thanks for the perspective Bodio. This may be a game time decision for me. I've been burned by the "Heat" being "Cold" before. As they say, if you can't stand the Heat....
I dont know. This MIA/LAK game can go either way. i think a small bet on either would just make it interesting. NO real big bet on this one. I'm leaning MIA but really Lakers are playing well so..
Small bet for me
I like NYY today why are they getting so many points?
Not too many. I got this one at -6 Mavs.
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Quote Originally Posted by nottoobright:
I dont know. This MIA/LAK game can go either way. i think a small bet on either would just make it interesting. NO real big bet on this one. I'm leaning MIA but really Lakers are playing well so..
Small bet for me
I like NYY today why are they getting so many points?
very true. i really wish i locked this in earlier at +2.5 but I only had a lean on Heat at that point...gonna hold out hoping for a +2 before gametime...at worst ill pay the -117 on Pinny to get the 2 or just hit the ML at plus odds.
Where do you live NE? I ask because I wish I could use Pinny here in the states.
By the way, I wouldn't buy points in bball. Just not a good strategy. Just play the ML or wait for it to possibly get to +2....
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Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:
very true. i really wish i locked this in earlier at +2.5 but I only had a lean on Heat at that point...gonna hold out hoping for a +2 before gametime...at worst ill pay the -117 on Pinny to get the 2 or just hit the ML at plus odds.
Where do you live NE? I ask because I wish I could use Pinny here in the states.
By the way, I wouldn't buy points in bball. Just not a good strategy. Just play the ML or wait for it to possibly get to +2....
Where do you live NE? I ask because I wish I could use Pinny here in the states.
By the way, I wouldn't buy points in bball. Just not a good strategy. Just play the ML or wait for it to possibly get to +2....
I live in Canada...yea it sucks you guys can't use Pinny...best book there is imo. Yea I usually don't buy points in Bball....but 1 is kind of useless. Might end up playing the ML at Betfair at +110
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Where do you live NE? I ask because I wish I could use Pinny here in the states.
By the way, I wouldn't buy points in bball. Just not a good strategy. Just play the ML or wait for it to possibly get to +2....
I live in Canada...yea it sucks you guys can't use Pinny...best book there is imo. Yea I usually don't buy points in Bball....but 1 is kind of useless. Might end up playing the ML at Betfair at +110
Absolutely with you. I saw the huge line shift and was worried because I was originally on the lakers. I missed the statment phil made about the "crying," but I think that's enough to have the heat whoop up on that ass tonight. Big bounce back.
YAHOO'S LAKERS TEAM REPORT
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Quote Originally Posted by tomherst:
Absolutely with you. I saw the huge line shift and was worried because I was originally on the lakers. I missed the statment phil made about the "crying," but I think that's enough to have the heat whoop up on that ass tonight. Big bounce back.
Hey Bodio, great stuff, just quickly wondering how do you project your lines? As in what factors do you take into account when creating your own lines? Do you do it walters style and use a statistical model on a computer or is it more just your general knowledge and experience of the sport?
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Hey Bodio, great stuff, just quickly wondering how do you project your lines? As in what factors do you take into account when creating your own lines? Do you do it walters style and use a statistical model on a computer or is it more just your general knowledge and experience of the sport?
Great write up, Bodio. The 'smart' bet is LA, while the 'winning' bet is Miami. Hate to root for that team, but against the Lakers I'll find a way. Let's get it.
GL
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Great write up, Bodio. The 'smart' bet is LA, while the 'winning' bet is Miami. Hate to root for that team, but against the Lakers I'll find a way. Let's get it.
think there is any pressure on LJ tonite? been watching his play lately? He will probably at least think about passing up the last shot to save his face.
Way to go Phil get em fumming
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Big Girls Don't Cry ... by the Frankie Valli
but it is allowable for Superstars.......
think there is any pressure on LJ tonite? been watching his play lately? He will probably at least think about passing up the last shot to save his face.
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