Posted:
#176
Irish War Cry is one of the best bets in the Derby, b/c of pedigree
of 'Beau Genius' w/ 'Polish Numbers' & 'Danzig' ==>
on a wet track makes him even more formidable if track conditions
are a less than ideal muddy or sloppy.
But Horses with real-life experience over a wet track include the
psycho-case 'Classic Empire', (the odds-on favorite of the Derby)
who broke his maiden on sloppy track at this Churchill last May.
On further analysis of real-life experience Horses-For-Courses:
'Lookin At Lee' placed 2nd by 8 3/4 lengths behind Not This Time
in the G3 Iroquois held at Churchill last September, gaining a BSF
of only 72, his lowest mark in 6 races since.
'Gunnevera' had 1st race last June on slop, and Race Notes indicate
he had “good kick” toward the end in his Place finish.
L@L ties Gunn for the highest Late Pace Rating in the field at 117.
'Tapwrit' won the one-mile Pulpit Stakes in December at Gulfstream
over a track rated sloppy, but the race was originally scheduled for a
mile on turf.
'Thunder Snow' has 2 races on “soft” turf, finishing 6th in June in the
G2 Coventry Stakes in Great Britain & won October’s G1 Critérium
Int'l over a distance of 1,400 meters (c. 7 furlongs), but in France.
'Girvin' won the Louisiana Derby but is dealing with a quarter-crack
in his hoof, which becomes more painful on a muddy / sloppy track.
OUCH !!
Last, but in no ways least, 'Gormley' won by a head
on a sloppy Santa Anita track in January at a mile grabbing a
94 BSF (but his highest ESF is indeed 116 !!) — and never forget
the fact California horses won the last 3 derbies...
incl. the tri & exacta.
On top of that, California based horses won the last 3 Preaknesses.
This one (out of (Seattle Slew no less) likes rain — and for my $$
winstrol + longer works beats out the aforesaid pedigree factor.
According to the Form, "a little fireball on Wednesday and even
more so Thursday, tugging his rider around for nearly two miles."
Pay attention to how the derby starting gate area was constructed.
It has created a built-in bias !!! But even so, muddy tracks vary
markedly from one track to another, so Tomlinson Ratings don’t
ensure any certain success in the slop under Twin Spires.
of 'Beau Genius' w/ 'Polish Numbers' & 'Danzig' ==>
on a wet track makes him even more formidable if track conditions
are a less than ideal muddy or sloppy.
But Horses with real-life experience over a wet track include the
psycho-case 'Classic Empire', (the odds-on favorite of the Derby)
who broke his maiden on sloppy track at this Churchill last May.
On further analysis of real-life experience Horses-For-Courses:
'Lookin At Lee' placed 2nd by 8 3/4 lengths behind Not This Time
in the G3 Iroquois held at Churchill last September, gaining a BSF
of only 72, his lowest mark in 6 races since.
'Gunnevera' had 1st race last June on slop, and Race Notes indicate
he had “good kick” toward the end in his Place finish.
L@L ties Gunn for the highest Late Pace Rating in the field at 117.
'Tapwrit' won the one-mile Pulpit Stakes in December at Gulfstream
over a track rated sloppy, but the race was originally scheduled for a
mile on turf.
'Thunder Snow' has 2 races on “soft” turf, finishing 6th in June in the
G2 Coventry Stakes in Great Britain & won October’s G1 Critérium
Int'l over a distance of 1,400 meters (c. 7 furlongs), but in France.
'Girvin' won the Louisiana Derby but is dealing with a quarter-crack
in his hoof, which becomes more painful on a muddy / sloppy track.
OUCH !!
Last, but in no ways least, 'Gormley' won by a head
on a sloppy Santa Anita track in January at a mile grabbing a
94 BSF (but his highest ESF is indeed 116 !!) — and never forget
the fact California horses won the last 3 derbies...
incl. the tri & exacta.
On top of that, California based horses won the last 3 Preaknesses.
This one (out of (Seattle Slew no less) likes rain — and for my $$
winstrol + longer works beats out the aforesaid pedigree factor.
According to the Form, "a little fireball on Wednesday and even
more so Thursday, tugging his rider around for nearly two miles."
Pay attention to how the derby starting gate area was constructed.
It has created a built-in bias !!! But even so, muddy tracks vary
markedly from one track to another, so Tomlinson Ratings don’t
ensure any certain success in the slop under Twin Spires.
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