Welcome to a new year of college football, and I will once again share analysis of line movements, betting flows and sharp indicators. In this thread I try to report the status of various indicators that have had success over the past several year and apply them to the games the week. I do boil the ocean on games but only select those with high handles. I have been burned too many times by 1 big bet between Sun Belt opponents throwing off the math.
Last year was strong with a 59.07% winning percentage and a profit of 8.63% (I will take this moment to remind everyone that the S&P is up 14.21% over the last calendar year so if you are in this primarily to "make money" I would suggest that instead of sports betting to invest in a 401K high equity fund - money managers also take less than 5%).
As you read my report I try to "show the math" so to speak so you know why a particular team is highlighted. If you do not like the math or indicator behind a particular selection, then by all means use your own judgment. For example, many people think reverse movement is a fallacy or that calling out the directions of sharp money is at best a lagging indicator and at worst a fools errand. Fine, you won't hurt my feelings, and you should feel free to ignore a selection if that is the criteria that led to it. I will try to be transparent so you can make this decision on your own.
Finally, my final piece of advice is to shop the lines. 2 versus 2.5 (see Stanford-Hawaii) makes a difference over time, especially when both are at -110.
So, let's start out with a status report on the 5 year weighted averages of the various indicators that help make up the selections. These change throughout the year so the weighting changes as some indicators ebb and flow. It used to be that lopsided tickets was a dead giveaway to where a gullible public was, now it barely makes a dent as an indicator.
Eastern time zone hosting western time zone early: 65.325%
Steam: 61.945% (Heavy steam - over 1.5 in surge movement 72.159%)
SKS (lower ranked team favored - or on the road and within 3 points): 60.894%
Reverse Movement: 59.956% (reverse increasing spread 67.313%; reverse reducing spread 57.984%; revise movement greater than a point 51.059%)
Sharp Indicator Formula: 58.562%
Low Ticket Favorite: 56.378% (low bet & + movement 52.394%, low bet & (-) movement 48.324% low bet and no movement 61.137%
Line Movement: 53.451% (toward the favorite 51.93% toward the underdog 55.048%)
Low Handle Favorite: 53.295% (low bet ticket and handle 58.893%; Handle<50% on home dog 52.109%)
Bye Week Return: 53.152%
Lopsided Tickets: 53.127% (on favorite 49.983%; on underdog 58.75%; lopsided Handle 50.567%; line movement same as lopsided 68.687%, opposite 42.916%; no movement 55.863%; lopsided home underdog 55.304%; lopsided ticket on a large underdog 66.540%)
Over/Under Squeeze: 52.976% (heavy squeeze 57.278%)
Style Points: 48.682% (perfect example of changing over time, it was 71.43% in 2019 but has been 50% 2 of the last 3 years with teh 34rd being 44.5%)
*******
Week 0 GAMES (as usual will be updated throughout the week)
Kansas State (1 unit): low handle favorite
Hawaii (3 units): Sharp Indicators
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