NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

Attention SDQL adepts:  Don't make the mistake I made in Comment #375.  Most of the queries I have run for the Finals have produced OU averages of 198-203.  This particular query's OU average was 209.81, but the posted total for the game was about 230.  That's too high to produce many query results, so I used 218.2 for this more realistic query:

PO = 1 and AD and line > 7.2 and TOM > 8.5 and total > 218.2

SU = 3-6, ATS = 4-5

That is a woefully small sample size, so sticking "p:" in front of the parameters won't produce a useful query for series game 2.

Based on the very high totals, the entire Finals could be construed as outliers:

PO = 1 and H and total > 223.2   # of games =  191

PO = 1 and H and total < 223.2   # of games = 1761

Adjusting for high totals will shrivel up the sample sizes of most relevant IND-OKC queries, many to the point of uselessness. 

This reminds me of my own outlier opinion on the Michael Jordan vs. LeBron James GOAT controversy:  I say Bill Russell is the GOAT (11 championships in 13 seasons), but clogging up the NBA lane has slumped in importance since three pointers were added.  It's an entirely different era.

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Pacers just kept hanging in, OKC could not shake them. The 2 young players on OKC, 21& 22 years old shot 8 of 28 from the field going 1 of 5 on 3's.

1st game jitters or now on the biggest stage as huge favorites with very heavy expectations do they know how to handle this ?

Pacers won the all-important FG % BATTLE by 7.8%, nice amount there. And they won 3 pt % by 9.5% while taking 9 more shots

At the same time Pacers did win rebs by a whooping 17 rebs.

But OKC did what they have been doing this season. They pounded Pacers in TO's 24-6 by 18.

And OKC won FT shooting % 87.5% to 71.4% by 16.1% while taking 3 more.

So who should of won ?

Shooting Efficiency  when adding  2 pt shots, 3 pt, FT's , TO's................

Pacers 47.64%

OKC 47.41%

PACERS by .23%.

Very close as was the game. 

When we add in the big rebound advantage,  Pacers out-played OKC and deserved  to win game 1.

The quetion is can Pacers shoot a higher % and win rebs again ?

If they don't and OKC wins this battle by 7, 8, 9, 10% or more they won't need to win TO battle by 18 to win the game.

Based on their poor shooting they needed to win TO to stay in the game.

Williams had a good look on a 3 late but missed, then he drive to the basket got in deep but missed close to the rim, then he drove again but was blocked. 

Coach took out the 2 bigs going to a small line-up and payed the price in losing rebs.

Pacers coach schooled OKC.

The answer depends on the young players if they don't step up Pacers will win this series.

I did find a team with young players but not overall young getting to the finals in this same spot

Home court advantage the favorite to win series.

Both PR's had them big by over 4.5 when added together and that team with young players got swept.

Opp weak rebounding team but Opp was almost even in the all-important shooting efficiency margin. 

95 Magic.

Both Shaq & Penny were like 21, 22 years old. The 2 best players on the team by a good amount. 

The remaining players however were not young, but the 2 young  players contributed the most.

could This same senerio be playing out right in front of us ?

The big difference is OKC is much better in the all-important shooting efficiency margin.

Did not show up in game 1 though. 

MY LINES ...................game 2

Nba finals version , we give 2 pts for each game a team trails. 

OKC -14.51 over Pacers

My lines with a 1 pt difference in game 2's since 1991................14-7 ATS.

5 times this method went against MJ's Bulls and went 2-3 ATS.

IN all other games not playing against the greatest player, most complete team .............. 12-4 ATS

Play has to be on OKC.

Very difficult to win both road games , Pacers did it twice but VS hobbled Cavs missing 2 starters and 6th man . And the Knicks. WHO ? OH THE KNICKS.

Because Pacers did it twice is more reason I don't like them to do it again. Not repeatable.

I saw some you tube reports on how Hali is so far ahead of everyone on last second shots it is ridiculous. 

Again not repeatable.

Play the probabilities of not being repeatable. He may not make another last second shot the rest of this series. 

Just when everyone thinks it is safe to back Hali miracles and Pacer SU/ATS wins in when we want to fade them.

OKC -11 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

this has been a great spot over the years to back the team in OKC's position but I still think we need to be cautious with any large plays.

Oooh, I love the -14.51 edge for OKC.  Coincidentally, I bet OKC -14.5/+144 for one unit last night.  This time I did include a relatively high OU parameter in the pertinent query.

The Covers consensus is IND 64% - OKC 36%.  Let's see if another public dog comes through.

Good luck to TC and his many tailers.

OKC should cover my line ...............

Meant to post that but forgot.

BOL to you dog ..............

Are the come-back kids going to do it again in this game 2 ?

Nah, not very likely to happen.

Now that everyone knows all about Pacers incredible string of come-backs they might not complete another in the remaining series.

With all the bad results I've had betting favorites for decades, winning with a big favorite when I sold points is extra sweet.

Congratulations to TC and his many tailers.

@theclaw

 You seeing a Gentleman's sweep for OKC moving forward ?....nice call on Game 2 TC....bol on Wednesday 

Very nice win, got crazy there at the end, you needed to sweat it out there but the bench players got it done ..............

I don't like it when that happens, relying on bench players not a good thing

They have a good shot to do it.................

Relying on the younger players would be a concern.

Williams was 5 of 14 , 1 of 5 on 3's. But he did go 8 of 9 on FT's.

I'd think he should improve but whether the young players can be consistent in these next 3 games 

I think the next close game OKC will win not the miracle maker Pacers.

You might get some kind of props on this, I'd play Pacers don't win or similar.

Pacers down 18 at half are not going to magically come-back every game. However I think they did cover the 2cd half.

I don't think they will come-back again from a 15+ deficit and win SU.

And I don't think Hali makes another game winner at the buzzer or similar.

I think as I mentioned OKC wins the next close game.

1-0, won, 1 unit

Finals --- 1-1, lost .1 units.

OKC's defense was very aggressive from the start, big difference  from game 1.

According to thinking basketball on you tube, excellent  site by the way, explains alot of what is happening on the court, in first game Pacers did things to confuse OKC's defense , maybe OKC made adjustments in game 2. 

i think OKC likely a little complacent in first game with too much love and thinking this would be easy series for them. Game 2 was different  mindset.

Game 2 OKC won FG% battle 48.8% to 45.1%

and 3 pt % 38.9% to 35%

FT's 87.9% to 73.1% and they attempted 7 more. That's is big by 14.8% with 7 more attempts.

This time OKC only won TO's by 2 but clearly won the other areas.

OKC wins rebs by 8.

When we add it all up OKC shooting efficiency......

55.16% to Pacers 48.64% a win by 6.52.

And with winning rebs by 8 that equates to a 15.41 point win.

MY LINES ..................game 3

OKC -4.51 over Pacers

with series tied 1-1 we don't use my lines but instead we back the better team to win the series if there is a clearly better team.

Which in this case we have a clearly better team.........

Play is on OKC 

OKC -4.5 (-115) over Pacers --- 1.15 units

I saw OKC -5.5

Nope; I skipped the game and avoided all that tension and aggravation.

I believe one of the ABC broadcasters stated on the post-game show that when NBA teams are tied 1-1 in the Finals, the team that wins Game 3 goes on to claim the title 80% of the time.

OKC is the clearly better team.

I am leery, though.  My Game 3 queries are a mixed bag and, although it's overall unlikely, I have a sneaky hunch that IND might lose but cover.  I don't usually bet hunches, so I have passed so far.

Good luck with your bet.  I need OKC to win to help my series wager.

Does Indy play much better at home claw… any big discrepancies there.  Or Okc on road… in regular season vs playoffs.    I know you search several angles… 

Yea alot of 5.5's but there were 4.5's yesterday even Covers had a book at 4.5.

Still 5's out there today.

I grabbed it quick at 4.5 because I didn't think it would last.