NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

OKC -3 over Twolves --- .55 units

0-1, lost .55 units

season --- 20-17, won 3.01 units

son of a gun OKC started to to away a bit but Twolves hung in there and kept it close.

MY LINES ...................game 4

Pacers -3.21 over Knicks

With the line dropping to -2 play is on Pacers but line is very close to my line. 

I'll waitbout the line and see what happens.

Small play on the Pacers if the line stays at -2 or drops to -1.5 would be better.

Off a SU loss  with my line having a 1 pt difference  to actaul line is 23-12 ATS.

I posted this before but put the record off a  ATS loss not SU loss.

They are both similar with almost exact win %, 65.7% to 65.8%.

To play the Knicks line would need to be +4.5, don't see it getting there.  But stranger things have happened. 

My Lines in Pacers game is 6-6 ATS in all spots.

Keeping in mind that the book has the best lines, knows the most so 50% is pretty good.

Picking spots is what gives my lines value.

Pacers have improved since Jan 2, they were only 17-17 before that time and 33-15 from what i counted off the schedule after but my lines still did well enough.

I went back to last year and looked at my lines in Mavs games using full season Mavs results but since Mavs made trades that improved the team I wanted to see how they did to compare to how the Pacers did 

My lines looking at full season got hammered in Mavs games but once I adjusted for the trades my lines worked much better.

I don't see the same result in Pacers games. My lines did ok. Maybe we can say Pacers improved some but I don't think they could have improved by any significant  amount based on the results of my lines in Pacers games.

If Pacers make the Finals which they very likely should I will run the numbers from Jan 2 to end off season.

Then I'll look at those PR's in all playoff games and see the difference  if any.

MY LINES .....................

OKC -10.64 over Twolves

OKC in closeout game and ......

OKC off 2 ATS losses, good spot to back OKC.

I looked at our Super Teams with a 5.75 or better difference...........

Only 1 team was off 2 ATS losses going into closeout game, 1-0 ATS won by 31 pts.

3 other teams off an ATS lose either losing SU or winning by 5 pts or fewer, 2-1 ATS.

Winning by 44, 14 and 3.

The only team to not cover was Celtics last season VS Pacers. Won by 3 (-7) game before then won by 3 in closeout game.

Only 3-1 ATS  overall, strong teams like OKC dont underperform over a string of games they tend to bounce back quick. very small sample. But alot to love about OKC in this spot.

MY LINES in all OKC games 10-3 ATS. Including 3-0 in Twolves series thus far. Plays on OKC game 1 & 2 and play on Twolves game 3 with a pass on game 4, not a 1 point difference. 

Play is on OKC

Total is 5 pts higher then game 1, line adjustment  based on the past 2 games going well over. Not sustainable and we are getting an additional 5 pts.

With closeout games going UNDER more often then not.

Play has to be on the UNDER.

OKC -8 (-105) over Twolves--- 1.05 units

OKC/Twolves  UNDER 220.5 --- 1.1 units

GL tonight CLAW 

Good luck tonight.  I passed.

I changed my mind.  The total climbed to 222 at Heritage, so I took the Under for one unit.

Good luck everybody.

GL tonight Claw. OKC were big favorites against Minny in the regular season, and they blew leads and let them cover multiple times. Minnesota just can score fast. And despite being the most efficient team in the league as I think you've noted, OKC has been kinda crappy lately against the spread these playoffs. 

I'll take Minny plus the points and hope they backdoor it late. 

P.S. Maybe it was because OKC hadn't closed it out yet with Denver, but the Western Conference champion line was kinda low on Minny despite them struggling early and often against a crippled Golden State team. Wouldn't surprise me if Minny pulled a shocker tonight and made the series interesting going back to Minnesota. 

Very nice ...............

Going to 222 is a great price. I thought about waiting myself  thinking it'd could go up but then sometimes I forget to make the play.

Appreciate your perspective spurs .............

I see many on you tube with similar thoughts. Saying they would not take OKC , Some very good sports bettors.

There is alot of reason to like OKC tonight aside from what these sharps are saying.

There are other reasons I didn't talk about because of time.

Looking pretty good at halftime dog .......... only 97 pts scored.

@theclaw

Nice cappin' claw!  You nailed it: Thunder and under.  Congrats!

I was supposed to pass on the game tonight but I saw your post last minute. Decided to tail on on both plays because the worst that could happen would be 1-1, I thought. Well, you nailed them both! Thanks for the wins!

Nice sweep, TC.  Congratulations.

Once again I am glad I skipped the game.  Watching that second half scoregasm would have been agonizing.

Thanks Jimmy, much appreciated...............

Yea 1-1 was likely the worst case ..............

Great spots when I can find them for sure.

Ha scoregasm,  that's  a great new word, yes got crazy, the total beat the original total in game 1 of 215.5 but we won getting those extra points based on the book adjusting the line which does happen quite a bit.

You had those extra points, you must of been happy about that, great job waiting out the total and finding those extra points....................

MY LINES...................Thursday

Knicks -4.79 over Pacers

Pacers in a closeout game. We don't use my lines in closeout games.

Instead we back the team to close it out "IF" that team is clearly the better team.

Closeout games in game 4 or 5 are not always the best to back a team to cover if they do close it out.

OKC last night was a very good spot but Pacers here are not.

In this series we don't have a team clearly better. Not according to either PRing.

We could say Pacers are improved since Jan 2cd but are they improved by alot ? I doubt it.

Play has to be on the Knicks or a pass.

I may take half a unit on Knicks. I'll  wait out the line if it goes to  -3.5 I will grab the Knicks for sure.

Looking at our 8 Super Teams in conference  finals over 5.75, 6 of the previous 8 did win series 4-0 or 4-1.

Now that goes to 7 of 9. This does not come up all that often but when it does there is a very good opportunity to hit some nice props.

Interesting that when I was looking at those Super Teams off a SU loss I notice that the 2023 Celtics the only team to not win the series of the 8 Super Teams was also easily the weakest team of the 8 previous teams.

So the only reason they were rated much better was not because they are a Super Team but because they played a very weak regular season team that got hot in playoffs.

And the 2cd weakest team did win 4-2, but the remaining strong teams were the teams to win 4-0 or 4-1.

So I am going to change the criteria to qualify under this method to better by 5.75 and be a strong team so we are actually backing a Super Team not a weak team playing a very weak team.

So in the future the records might be different  from what I posted here.

One of the reason I liked OKC was I did eliminate the 2 weakest teams from the records I posted in closeout games . Without that the info pointed more to a no play.

This also works with teams 2.75 or better, teams between 2.75 and 5.75 still won 4-0 or 4-1 at a 54.5% rate. Not as good as our 5.75 teams but still good.

Then I looked at those teams to see if the same would apply, weaker teams favored by 2.75 playing very weak teams and yep the same result.

The stronger teams won 4-0 or 4-1 did so a a higher rate.

It is always nice to learn new things to improve any methods.

Already paid off with my play on OKC closeout game even though a small sample of games.