Key's P.O.D. 1-23-09

38-27, Streak, Lost 3

Best Bet: Minnesota +2

There are a few differences between teams like the Timberwolves and other teams temporarily up from the bottom. The T-Wolves have actually established a positive point margin over their last 10. Oklahoma (-1.6), Miami (-2.7) and Charlotte (-3.6) are currently hot on an ATS basis and many of us are playing them when the opportunity arises. All well and good, but Minnesota has established a positive scoring margin of 6.3 ppg and that is in a class with Orlando (10.4), Boston (8.1), and Philadelphia (7.3), all legitimate contenders. If I median the margins and reduce the 42 point blowout of OK City to the median value of the other 9 games, 10.22, the median value of the T-Wolves last 10 games is 10.9 ppg, absolutely HUGE. Running the same formulas on the Hornets rates them at only 1.3 ppg. So, what we have here is not an undervalued dog, but a false favorite. The Wolves should win this game going away.

Personally I am going to play Minnesota on the money line for the game and first quarter. Following any quarter they lose, I will play them again on the moneyline the following quarter. I honestly don't think we get better opportunities than this and if the sequence fails I will be very disappointed indeed. GL.

Key,

 

     Did you really get a +2 at the time you posted? The consensus as per wagerline had moved to +1 @ 8:58 a.m. EST

Yeah, Stew, It was open and playable at 3 or 4 houses at that time (while I was typing). I am playing the money line to dump the juice anyway and it is doubtful the 1 point will make the difference. Not nearly as many games land close to the line as most folks think. I never buy points either, not even a half to get off a bad number. The added juice is just not worth it in the long run. If you think you need a half point you probably shouldn't be playing that game, jmho.

GL

When you say you dont buy a halfpoint to get off a bad number, were you referring to football? I didnt know there were any bad (i.e. key?) numbers in basketball

Like your analysis and pick...

 

BOL, Key...

Yeah, Stew, bad numbers refers to football, but I just used that to illustrate the point.

goood luck i like it on them as well

Whats up Key,yeh I took a few days off,sometimes I need to clear my head of all this stuff and staying away for a couple of days is needed sometimes,GL today.

Yes I saw the +2 today and a few touts were giving out the 2,but now its 1,which is close to the last bet I made in the second half of OKC-GS game,+5.5 and under 112.5,which gave me the Thunder +1.5 and under 252.5 as they score 140 points in the first half,also had the over in F-1/4 of 56.5 and they had 57 with over 3 mins left in 1/4.Not alot of Defense in that one,but it got me almost even for the day,-19 dollars after a terrible start which lead to the break,as I dont plan on playing tonight.

But was looking at the total of 194.5 in OKC-LACs game and it did seem low to me,lol

bd_c, old buddy: the discussion about buying the hook is at least as old as you and I put together plus the number of years the flat wager versus lay the juice in baseball has been kicked around. Guys just feel as they do and there are as many opinions out there as noses, everybody's got one and they are all different.  GL.

O yeh,the final was 122-121 in that game,OKC win with 1.6 secs left,talk about no D,the Warriors couldnt stop an 80 year old woman from scoring.

Key I will for the most part,8 out of 10,buy the hook,as backdooor mentioned Ive lost to many by the 1/2,plus with the hook being bought it adds in the push which you lose on a .5 bet,JMHO also

I like Minnesota at +2, sadly my line is even.  But still considering it.

i think you are right buddy, i thought for sure we had the orlando game last night, oh well, on to tonight.. go timberpups

So Key,that over is now 195,think its a play.

any thoughts on Milk.+5.5 also.

I had the right numbers (indicators) and badlands likes it so I think I will take a flyer on Milk.