I'm tailing you Scal. Great writeup and the ER metaphor was out of this world. Do you, by chance, write for a living? I mean, you write the way most people walk or breathe, totally effortless. I just did a writeup on Dubs/Grizz in case you are interested. Not too excited about it but who can blame me after that Dallas game last night. It has been an awful (unlucky) two weeks but I'm hanging in there.
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I'm tailing you Scal. Great writeup and the ER metaphor was out of this world. Do you, by chance, write for a living? I mean, you write the way most people walk or breathe, totally effortless. I just did a writeup on Dubs/Grizz in case you are interested. Not too excited about it but who can blame me after that Dallas game last night. It has been an awful (unlucky) two weeks but I'm hanging in there.
MJC -- the line moved from 9 to 8 at some books, signaling, possibly, the books are adjusting to get more money on the Nets side -- but either way the line movement is towards the Cavs covering the 9, because now the books are offering only 8 -- if the line moved to 10 this would show reverse line movement and also the line moving towards the Nets
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MJC -- the line moved from 9 to 8 at some books, signaling, possibly, the books are adjusting to get more money on the Nets side -- but either way the line movement is towards the Cavs covering the 9, because now the books are offering only 8 -- if the line moved to 10 this would show reverse line movement and also the line moving towards the Nets
Scal you are my guy for sure and have made me bucket loads of money. With that said, it pains me to say that in my opinion, I believe you are on the wrong side. I had this line at 6/6.5 before looking and I feel that opening at 9.5 reeks.
Looking at some of their recent prior opening lines against superior teams to the Nets, we have:
3/12 @ Phoenix +7.5
3/14 @ Golden State +9.5
3/16 @ LA Clippers +12.5
3/18 Miami +9
3/20 Oklahoma City +10
3/22 Houston +8
Now to further your point, they did cover all of those games except the Clippers. I also understand that the last three games in this example were at home and the line would be significantly higher if they were on the road.
However, I cannot say the line should be two points higher than the Suns would be or the same line the Warriors would get. Those are better teams in my mind no question. There has been plenty of time to adjust for the run the Cavs are on. The Nets simply aren't in the realm of the six above teams. Yet they get a line as if they are?
You certainly have well illustrated how the line could be set this high. Certainly their home court streak is noteworthy. But it's not good enough for me to believe they are 9.5 points better. I just don't buy it. To me, this is begging for Cavs money.
I don't like going against you in the least but this is the first time I most likely will be or be passing. Honestly, I hope I am wrong and you are right.
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Scal you are my guy for sure and have made me bucket loads of money. With that said, it pains me to say that in my opinion, I believe you are on the wrong side. I had this line at 6/6.5 before looking and I feel that opening at 9.5 reeks.
Looking at some of their recent prior opening lines against superior teams to the Nets, we have:
3/12 @ Phoenix +7.5
3/14 @ Golden State +9.5
3/16 @ LA Clippers +12.5
3/18 Miami +9
3/20 Oklahoma City +10
3/22 Houston +8
Now to further your point, they did cover all of those games except the Clippers. I also understand that the last three games in this example were at home and the line would be significantly higher if they were on the road.
However, I cannot say the line should be two points higher than the Suns would be or the same line the Warriors would get. Those are better teams in my mind no question. There has been plenty of time to adjust for the run the Cavs are on. The Nets simply aren't in the realm of the six above teams. Yet they get a line as if they are?
You certainly have well illustrated how the line could be set this high. Certainly their home court streak is noteworthy. But it's not good enough for me to believe they are 9.5 points better. I just don't buy it. To me, this is begging for Cavs money.
I don't like going against you in the least but this is the first time I most likely will be or be passing. Honestly, I hope I am wrong and you are right.
I don't even understand how you consistently find and exploit these angles. It's what separates the good cappers from the great ones like yourself. Great writeup, and ill be on the cavs tonight. GL
You just have to zero in on a team.
I've been capping the lakers a lot lately and that lead me to the Cavs/Lakers 5 man d-league game so I started looking into them, never pulling the trigger right away.
After they came back against the Knicks, I REALLY became interested. And capped the previous two games but didn't post them (no need - not a major play).
I needed more verification that wasn't a flash in the pan win.
It wasn't IMO.
Tonight we pull the trigger.
This pick is a week and a half in the making. That's why I have so much to say about it.
I've thought about this game for several days and it woke me up at 4am this morning, not with worry, but excitement.
It's here now.
"Place wager"
"Confirm wager"
::::click::::
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Quote Originally Posted by SteezMonger:
I don't even understand how you consistently find and exploit these angles. It's what separates the good cappers from the great ones like yourself. Great writeup, and ill be on the cavs tonight. GL
You just have to zero in on a team.
I've been capping the lakers a lot lately and that lead me to the Cavs/Lakers 5 man d-league game so I started looking into them, never pulling the trigger right away.
After they came back against the Knicks, I REALLY became interested. And capped the previous two games but didn't post them (no need - not a major play).
I needed more verification that wasn't a flash in the pan win.
It wasn't IMO.
Tonight we pull the trigger.
This pick is a week and a half in the making. That's why I have so much to say about it.
I've thought about this game for several days and it woke me up at 4am this morning, not with worry, but excitement.
I cant let you out of here without givinh a couple thoights on NY +6 & LA +11.....both seem a bucket too high imo....
I like the Cavs , and they will be in my ridiculous ml parlay as well
WAY too many things to consider in that Knicks game and I almost never cap two Knick games in a row simply because I want to see where they're at after a win/loss.
Cavs nets took too much of my time to cap the Lakers. Focused on one game and one game only tonight. Right here...
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I cant let you out of here without givinh a couple thoights on NY +6 & LA +11.....both seem a bucket too high imo....
I like the Cavs , and they will be in my ridiculous ml parlay as well
WAY too many things to consider in that Knicks game and I almost never cap two Knick games in a row simply because I want to see where they're at after a win/loss.
Cavs nets took too much of my time to cap the Lakers. Focused on one game and one game only tonight. Right here...
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