I've never had a WRITE-UP for 3 games in one week in 8 years here. Tonight that changes. CAVS@NETS!!

Question

Ironically, this will be one of my bigger write-ups of late. I started and it all started pouring out.

We're gonna have a little fun with this one. I would never write-up three games in a week but the last two demanded it and this one stands out to me. No need to go crazy with it. It is not nearly as good as the Knicks play this week or the Lakers play on Sunday but I wanted to write it up.

The game is the Cavs vs. the Nets. I like the Cavs and here is why.

As you know, I've said repeatedly I've gravitated away from the Nets and towards the Knicks. Tonight we cap a Nets game because there are too many reasons not to do so.

You also know I subscribe to the "Shi+ to gold" motto where you cap the worst teams, which usually have lines that either not many people are interested in or can be exploited one way or another.

The Cavs are shi+ so the table is set.

1. Can this line be exploited?

I say yes.

It looks like lazy line-setting to me. Why would that occur? The NCAA tournament makes FAR more money for any book than a Nets Cavs game. We are right at the Sweet Sixteen in the thick of the tournament so it appears the books are not paying that much attention to the NBA. To prove that, as I type, there are 12 games tonight and only 4 lines have been released by almost all major books. That is highly unusual. It appears the books have the NCAA on their mind and the NBA is playing second fiddle.

Yet, we have a line for Nets Cavs.It is 9.5 (and appears to have moved down to 9 in some spots).

Where does that line come from? Well the Nets have won 11 in a row at home by an average of 11.4 points. It looks like the books said, "let's just put a 10 spot up to represent that trend, with a small deflation for the fact the Cavs have won 3 and the Nets have lost 2."

Is that enough of a deflation? I don't think it is. I would be very hesitant to lay points to the Cavs right now.

Why?

scalabrine · Answer

Ironically, this will be one of my bigger write-ups of late. I started and it all started pouring out.

We're gonna have a little fun with this one. I would never write-up three games in a week but the last two demanded it and this one stands out to me. No need to go crazy with it. It is not nearly as good as the Knicks play this week or the Lakers play on Sunday but I wanted to write it up.

The game is the Cavs vs. the Nets. I like the Cavs and here is why.

As you know, I've said repeatedly I've gravitated away from the Nets and towards the Knicks. Tonight we cap a Nets game because there are too many reasons not to do so.

You also know I subscribe to the "Shi+ to gold" motto where you cap the worst teams, which usually have lines that either not many people are interested in or can be exploited one way or another.

The Cavs are shi+ so the table is set.

1. Can this line be exploited?

I say yes.

It looks like lazy line-setting to me. Why would that occur? The NCAA tournament makes FAR more money for any book than a Nets Cavs game. We are right at the Sweet Sixteen in the thick of the tournament so it appears the books are not paying that much attention to the NBA. To prove that, as I type, there are 12 games tonight and only 4 lines have been released by almost all major books. That is highly unusual. It appears the books have the NCAA on their mind and the NBA is playing second fiddle.

Yet, we have a line for Nets Cavs.It is 9.5 (and appears to have moved down to 9 in some spots).

Where does that line come from? Well the Nets have won 11 in a row at home by an average of 11.4 points. It looks like the books said, "let's just put a 10 spot up to represent that trend, with a small deflation for the fact the Cavs have won 3 and the Nets have lost 2."

Is that enough of a deflation? I don't think it is. I would be very hesitant to lay points to the Cavs right now.

Why?

scalabrine · Answer

2. The Cavs, for all intents and purposes, are playing their best basketball of the season RIGHT NOW.

Yes, they are doing it without Kyrie. And for Cavs backers, that is a GOOD thing. Kyrie is the Cavs version of Rondo. He doesn't necessarily click with this team on all cylinders and is rumored to have attitude issues/internal conflicts with coaches. He's appears to be a malcontent. When you bet on a team, you don't want to do it consistently with a malcontent stirring the pot (See how the Knicks were doing with JR Smith and Shoelace-Gate).

So who has been stepping up in his absence. JJack appears to have finally started fulfilling everything he was brought in for from Golden State.

Dion Waiters is flourishing far beyond his normal, "nothing-special, was this first round pick a bust" play this season.

How well are they doing since Kyrie went down 6 games ago?

Jack was averaging 9 pts 4 assists with Kyrie all season.

Without him the past 6? 17 Points 5 Assists.

Waiters? The difference is even more stark.

With Kyrie? 15 pts and 3 assists.

Without him the past 6? 23 points and 6 assists.

Folks, I haven't posted a Cavs side all year. I'll say this. I'll take the backcourt of Jack and Waiters right now any day of the week over Kyrie being a part of it.

Of course when a guy leaves the lineup, other players make up for it. But these two are making up for it in a very big way, so much so, the Cavs are making an unforeseen run at the eighth spot.

scalabrine · Answer

So why is this their best basketball of the season?

First they are moving the ball. There are more passes and more fluidity on offense. When you see them play, there is more purpose. There is a goal. It's not dribble dribble who gives a shi* shoot offense we've seen most of the year. That is a big plus.

Believe it or not, the Cavs think they still have a shot at the eighth seed. That would have been laughable three games ago. Now three games later, they sit only 3 games behind the sputtering Hawks who can't win in a big spot for anything at this point and only 1.5 games behind the Knicks who they must leapfrog. While the NBA world focuses on the Knicks and The Zenmaster, here are the Cavs slowly creeping up on the Knicks and Hawks with 9 games left. It's a tall order. But tall orders can be fulfilled with one thing....keep winning...and winning in their last 3 is what they are doing.

Why do the past three games matter so much?

This all started with a win over the Knicks in NY, with Phil in the stands after trailing by 15 at the half. One incredible half and a ridiculous fourth quarter later where they missed all but two shots, they walked out of NY with a win. That was a HUGE jumping off point for them. The heralded 'surging' Knicks? They went on to get bashed by the worst Western Conference team in the Lakers on national TV the next game.

That second half comeback and that win gave them confidence and hope they haven't had all season. They won outright as 10.5 dogs.

What did they do the next game? They beat the Atlantic leading Raptors by 2 stifling a furious comeback as 4.5 point dogs at home. The Raps are no pushovers. The Cavs jumped out to a huge lead and smothered their comeback to win it.

Finally, on a back to back no less, they went into Detroit and overcame yet another big deficit, 14 points to start the 4th quarter, to win outright on a Waiters jumper.

Before that, in the 3 games without Kyrie, they had lost 3 in a row you say? To who? Miami, OKC, Houston. The best of the best. Those are acceptable losses, some on the road. And they almost beat the Heat.

And even at that, they had two fourth quarter comebacks in garbage time vs. OKC and Houston to get inside the number.

Amazingly over the last 9 games, the Cavs have been the best bet in the NBA quietly going 8-1 ATS.

Yes, those Houston and OKC covers were in garbage time and it looks like the Cavs threw in the towel but not anymore. This is a different, confident team and the combination of "Star out - role players step up" theory without Kyrie, and that half where they were in the zone against the Knicks has given the Cavs, a team that started the year with playoff aspirations and has failed miserably...HOPE.

This is a bad team with bad record with a bad coach. But their starting 5 is decent enough to get things done and score points. They made these trades precisely to get to this point where they snatch up a playoff seed and now they are motivated.

How motivated? They feel like champions. At least their coach thinks they do.

scalabrine · Answer

After the Pistons win he was quoted as saying:

"For us to come back and keep our composure -- that's what championship teams do. Don't get me wrong, we are nowhere near a championship team. But to see signs of life is a great thing."

Ridiculous to put the words championship and Cavs in the same sentence? Absolutely. But for a coach that had lost a team and a PG, "signs of life" is the key phrase there. You don't cap a game on a soundbite from a coach, but when you deal with terrible teams (like the Knicks as well) you need to have some feel for their internal mindset in forthcoming games. Not only are they showing signs of life on the court, they appear to believe they have a shot at this playoff spot off the court and the coach does as well.

This is what was expected of them all season.

As for the Nets, are they dangerous at home? Yes. They go for a franchise record tying home winning streak tonight.

But this line reeks of a line that has been adjusted a mere point from opening from what the Nets were winning at in this streak (11.3 ppg margin of victory)

scalabrine · Answer

3. State of the NetsNo doubt, they are great at home. And that is why this line is so high.It is also so high because the nets are in a dogfight for the third and fifth seed, being only 2.5 games out of first and away from the 4th seeded Bulls. And that is why they want this game so bad.They are a different team. Deron has really turned it on the past several games and isn&#x27;t looking like he&#x27;s 80 years old out there. They have the best record since the new year.All of that costs you 9 points.That&#x27;s a lot of points.Why? I think three OT games in a row has the Nets on edge. Better yet, I think the last two games were extremely deflating losses against the Pelicans and Bobcats.Right now the Nets may be a bit tight. With 12 games remaining they need to make up 2.5 games. That is a big margin in a small time frame. Especially for a rookie coach who will face true adversity and meaningful games down the stretch. Don&#x27;t overlook that Cleveland team.Tonight, after losing 2 straight OT games, the Nets will be tested, and it will be against a team they probably think they should roll.This is a rookie coach who&#x27;s brought his team from no man&#x27;s land to the fifth seed and possibly a division title.Perhaps it&#x27;s all business tonight and they roll the Cavs. But remember, if you back the Nets, this better be a blowout by 10 or more. I can tell you, after last year&#x27;s game 7, there is a lingering feeling with the fans this team can fold when they need it most.Will that change tonight? Maybe. But they don&#x27;t know they need to win by ten to pay Nets backers. That is a sizable cushion for Cavs backers who can lose and still cover.

Cro_Sensation · Answer

This has to be one of the dumbest things I have seen in a couple of years......But please bet the cavs so I can laugh at the post after the game ;)

scalabrine · Answer

So here are the quick cliff notes:You have a Nets team thatHas won 11 in a row at homeBy a margin of 11&#x2B; per gameIs coming off two straight OT losses Are chasing the Raps and Bulls for the 3rd and 4th seedAnd that is costing you NINE points vs.A Cavs team thatHas won three in a rowOne against a Knick team that had won 8 in a row One against the same Raptors the nets are chasingOne against the Pistons on a back to back going awayHave had their backcourt sparkle in Kyrie&#x27;s absence Are playing team ball Are quietly 3 games out of the eighth spot Has come back from deficits of 15 and 14 in those three winsAre playing their best ball of the seasonIf you think those OT losses didn&#x27;t deflate the Nets, you still don&#x27;t have many reasons to bet the Nets  laying 9 given how the Cavs are playing. You really only have this home winning streak. This is 9 points. 9 points is far from a ML. Quite far...

scalabrine · Answer

And I want to make this clear:THE CAVS DO NOT have to WIN but most certainly can and can make it close. We lose sight of that with big lines. We think, "they&#x27;ll roll tonight."The Cavs are not the Sixers. There is talent on this squad and they are playing well.One last thing.The Cavs always need a spark to play well this seasonWhat was their last spark? The Laker game where Sacre fouled out and they had no one to replace him.They lost that game. At HOME. Then they won the next SIX. They cooled off after that but it took six games. And they beat quality teams like @the wizards and vs. Memphis.I see the second half of that Knicks game as starting a Cavs run. That run is at 3 already. And they need a run BIG TIME with only 9 games left. All this and all we have to do is lose by 8 or less tonight against what might be a tight nets team that will get tested with a backcourt Jack and Waiters.That&#x27;s a pretty good deal.We have a big game to cap coming up on 4/2 Knicks Nets so I&#x27;m not gonna go crazy here. 2.5 Stars of 5 but I think we have sufficient justification to take the points.My record is 13-5 this year  (72%). Let&#x27;s make this a moderate play and look to 4/2 and a favorable line for a sizable play.The Pick:CAVS &#x2B;9 OVER NETS

scalabrine · Answer

Just like Intel-1 in the last thread, here is the fish we get paid out money from at the window post-game.They pave Vegas&#x27; streets with gold.Bow to them.Without them, the gambling world wouldn&#x27;t exist

scalabrine · Answer

He&#x27;s already setting the pick in fire and I hadn&#x27;t even posted the play yet!!!Just like the guys who call the game at the start of the second quarter,Ya can&#x27;t make it up!!!

Pho-20 · Answer

Always on point scal

I feel nets will come out hot the 1st half covering 1st quarter and 1st half and then slowing down the 2nd half allowing cavs to comeback and cavs cover game but lose still to nets. Nets win by 5-6.

RyanHardy · Answer

thanks for the write up, on it with you.  Like you said the Cavs can keep it close and lose by 8 and still cover.

Fresh952 · Answer

Best of luck! Like the cavs tonite too!

scalabrine · Answer

@pho@ryan@fresh My pleasure

LONKJON · Answer

Thanks for the writw ups scal..Pretty ....... long sentences hahahaGood luck buddy ...

oldscho0led · Answer

love reading your write-ups..riding this bet w/ no regret even if this loses..

scalabrine · Answer

I did want to add, even if the Nets come out kicking the door down, in 4 of the past 6 the Cavs made huge comebacks to get inside the number.Those 4:vs. OKC - down 21 to start the fourth, they got inside the number of  &#x2B;10 after cutting it 7.Vs. Houston -  down 23 to start the 4th they got inside the number of &#x2B;9 to lose by 7.Vs. the Knicks - came back from down 15 at the half to win by 6.Vs. Detroit - came back from down 14 to start the fourth to win by 1.Bator pointed out in another thread that those comeback vs. OKC and Houston were when the starters left the floor. He&#x27;s right. But tonight we get a similar line to those games and:A) even if it&#x27;s a blowout, the Cavs haven&#x27;t been throwing in the towel in the fourth down big and have gotten inside the spread.B) they&#x27;ve been coming back and actually overcoming the huge deficits in two of the last three wins So if we get the lead and keep it close. Great!If we go down big? The Cavs have not been throwing in the towel and a big number matters because they&#x27;ve been getting inside that number even in losses.

vinnyherbert · Answer

Cavs playing 5th game in 7 nights.    Always a tough spot no matter the team.

scalabrine · Answer

@raider@follow@lonk - yeah, I write long sentences! You can get through em! It&#x27;ll be worth it.@old- much appreciated.

Wolfofcovers · Answer

Scal how many stars would you rate this play? Thinking of putting down $1,100/$1,000

Wolfofcovers · Answer

Thanks as always

pat08080808 · Answer

get that cash scal

KINGDOAK · Answer

Nothing is ever 100% . But I agree with the play !

I've never had a WRITE-UP for 3 games in one week in 8 years here. Tonight that changes. CAVS@NETS!!

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