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How many of us make money in the NBA?

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Posts: 212

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:08 PM ET #126

Quote Originally Posted by tonydan:

kapono im shocked you let this happen to you.lol you will get it back bud.

I hope that is in jest tony?

I'll be fine, just gotta wait a while before I jump back into the game. It happens to all of us, it just takes some of us a few more times of going busto before we realize what we need to do to permanently make sure we dont do it again.

tonydan

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 9304

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:25 PM ET #127

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I hope that is in jest tony?

I'll be fine, just gotta wait a while before I jump back into the game. It happens to all of us, it just takes some of us a few more times of going busto before we realize what we need to do to permanently make sure we dont do it again.

kapono we are cool, and i meant nothing but the best for ya, i have been gambling since i was 15 (poker,etc) im 38 now so i can tell ya i have honestly learned the hard way to be smart.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:27 PM ET #128

Quote Originally Posted by tonydan:

kapono we are cool, and i meant nothing but the best for ya, i have been gambling since i was 15 (poker,etc) im 38 now so i can tell ya i have honestly learned the hard way to be smart.

You've got a good jump on me then Tony, I've only been gambling for about 9 years and only seriously been doing it for like 2-3 years.

Good luck friend

nbafan88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 26899

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:28 PM ET #129

Money is made once you stop betting simply for action

tonydan

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 9304

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:31 PM ET #130

Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

Money is made once you stop betting simply for action

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT SIR. THIS IS ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS I LEARNED ABOUT SPORTS BETTING

Mikado

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 10129

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 1:51 PM ET #131

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Hotels aren't standing in the desert because the guys behind them are stupid, that's for sure.

I should have known better. I do know better. But what the hell can I say, I'm a degenerate. Once I can reign supreme over my own internal struggle and can actually be disciplined in doing this, I should be OK. I'm up units on the year after 218 plays, so that has to count for something knowing how hard it is to make money in the NBA for most people, so I know I can do it.

Appreciate the kind words though Mikado.

You are WAY smarter than this Kap and you know it.

Don't let it happen again and be sure to remind yourself next time you're intoxicated and get the urge to lay down a bet what happened last night.

You out of all people KNOW this is a marathon not a sprint... you said it yourself.

EddieMooseMush

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 691

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 2:06 PM ET #132

Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:

To tell you the truth its probably the only sport i make money in, if i didnt play football i would probably be up over 400 units by now..I find it easier to cap the NBA than any other sport..

Was this a Freudian slip? Your listed units won is around plus 480 before yesterdays results.... You posted alot, if not all of your of football plays in your NBA threads and always included the results in your posted record. Please clarify

EddieMooseMush

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 691

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 2:09 PM ET #133

You have learned little if you are still doing it for "He who gambles lives in shambles"

canadiantruth

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 4353

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 3:45 PM ET #134

Gambling 8 years. Lost small amounts first 5, won small amounts next 2, good return last year.

How I keep myself motivated? I don't play the whole season. I pick it up periodically, to win "x" amount (currently $500).

As stated, key to winning;

Money management - limited plays (1-3/night), 1 -1.5 units only, no huge parlays

Selective betting - Don't analyze the entire board, it is a one way ticket to the looney bin

For me; LINE MOVEMENT. Vegas is not stupid, they are not going to set a line that is 5 points off. Of course, anomolies happen, but following, and learning line movement is key.

Education - Read articles online, read books (the smart money, weighing the odds of sports betting, etc), research systems, in general, become familiar with the betting world.

Last, but not least, read covers. There is a wealth of knowledge here about players status, who's dog died, or any other x factor that you never thought of.

When know all the relevant information, you are ready to find the VALUE .

Much respect for everyone who has posted so far.

Great thread mik.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 4:13 PM ET #135

the one thing that I find no one talking about is a determined edge based price and line. This is more about odds than it is how much you think you know about the sport.

For example. Last nights Utah@Denver game.

Market adjusted by 1pm to set the line @ 9. This is where it stayed till tipoff. I bought Utah +10 -105 20 minutes prior to the line change.

So based on the adjusting of the line, compared to the line and price I had ie Utah +9 -110 v Utah +10 -105, I had an edge of +6.70% compared to the -4.55% of Utah +9 -110.

Now I realize this is a best case scenario of getting a better number and price.

Let's say I had bought Utah +9 -102 I would've reduced the house's edge from 4.55% to 0.98%.

To me this is not talked about enough and for anyone who is into turning a profit long term, it is paramount to understand what your odds are.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 4:42 PM ET #136

Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

Money is made once you stop betting simply for action

that is one piece of the puzzle

McAlpine

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2400

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 4:56 PM ET #137

There is a lot of randomness in the NBA, and teams play well or poorly depending on a lot of factors. Makes it hard to handicap. On the other hand, if you define your handicapping edges - mostly intangibles such as motivation, you can find very good opportunities a few times a week.

I used to lose a lot at sports betting, as you did. I started winning when I realized that betting the better team and laying points does not work. Now I look for opportunities to fade the public and the better team and take points. Motivational mismatches are my money maker, and I am making money fairly consistently now.

Bad loss on Denver last night, but I didn't bet the rent money, and I know I can make it back. It's been an up-and-down couple of weeks, but you need to work through those periods and keep your mind calm and focused.

I think NBAfan and Kapnofor3 have the most insightful posts above. Take another look.

And good luck. Don't get discouraged!

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 4:59 PM ET #138

Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

There is a lot of randomness in the NBA, and teams play well or poorly depending on a lot of factors. Makes it hard to handicap. On the other hand, if you define your handicapping edges - mostly intangibles such as motivation, you can find very good opportunities a few times a week.

I think NBAfan and Kapnofor3 have the most insightful posts above. Take another look.

And good luck. Don't get discouraged!

motivational mismatches occur with favs too.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 5:27 PM ET #139

mcalpine pretty much summed up my point. by not even acknowledging my post. Well, least I tried.

McAlpine

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2400

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 5:35 PM ET #140

Hey Smartbets, didn't overlook you. I watch line movements too, and often take a careful look at "trap" lines. Yes, favorites are a bet providing you can get good line value with them. I love the Lakers today, for example.

Cannot keep up with the math you did in your post, however. You obviously have a sharp pencil.

I don't. My handicapping is mostly intuitive.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 5:42 PM ET #141

Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

Hey Smartbets, didn't overlook you. I watch line movements too, and often take a careful look at "trap" lines. Yes, favorites are a bet providing you can get good line value with them. I love the Lakers today, for example.

Cannot keep up with the math you did in your post, however. You obviously have a sharp pencil.

I don't. My handicapping is mostly intuitive.

Actually it's simpler than you think. I can send you the link for the calculator. Just enter the sports, the line, spread or total and enter in your price and it calculates your edge.

I think some people set out goals like I wanna hit 60% or whatever number. While that would be great, I look at it like, if I bet 100 plays and I finish @ 52.4% laying -110, I will turn a profit. I mean I know I'm gonna lose, but by laying -103, -105 etc, even on my losses I am making more money.

Then when you can calculate your edge on top of those numbers, you are going to win long term. Now that is all based upon hitting 52.4%. If you have a great season 57%+ then it's more money on the table.

I'm just talking about what we all can do aside from the obvioius sport we are betting on. As we all know, even the best situation can still lose. But by determining our edge and keeping the most money even off of our losses, we will be successful long term.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 6:46 PM ET #142

another example is right now Memphis @ Houston 4.5

Market is settling @ 4.5 -110. I bought Memphis earlier +5 -105

So right now I hold a +2.08% edge @5 as opposed to a -4.55% edge to the HOUSE @ 4.5

angelfunk

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1078

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #143

I have to win money.. This is my job..

I feel stress and pressure, but have the skills and knowledge to overcome...

This is NOT for EVERYONE.. My NBA knowledge is second to none..

I live for the game of basketball, the wagering allows me to follow my passion as a proffession..

Good Luck to ALL..

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 6:59 PM ET #144

Quote Originally Posted by angelfunk:

I have to win money.. This is my job..

I feel stress and pressure, but have the skills and knowledge to overcome...

This is NOT for EVERYONE.. My NBA knowledge is second to none..

I live for the game of basketball, the wagering allows me to follow my passion as a proffession..

Good Luck to ALL..

you realize how many bettors think the same about themselves? NBA knowledge is not what it takes to win long term.

hello3

Veteran

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 3515

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 7:01 PM ET #145

i did for sure

angelfunk

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1078

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 7:02 PM ET #146

No, but it makes up for 30-40% of it.. I see some people making bets here based on trends.. If they actually understood the game of basketball they wouldn't be making and losing those bets..

I have a lot of confidence in my ability.. You develop that after 3.5 years of consistent winning

Ramathorn02

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 2684

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 7:03 PM ET #147

Happens to all of us. I'm the king of doubling up when losing. Because, there's no way I can lose 5 in a row right? Actually, very possible.

Pho_Q_Pay_Me

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 2384

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 8:16 PM ET #148

Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

Actually it's simpler than you think. I can send you the link for the calculator. Just enter the sports, the line, spread or total and enter in your price and it calculates your edge.

I think some people set out goals like I wanna hit 60% or whatever number. While that would be great, I look at it like, if I bet 100 plays and I finish @ 52.4% laying -110, I will turn a profit. I mean I know I'm gonna lose, but by laying -103, -105 etc, even on my losses I am making more money.

Then when you can calculate your edge on top of those numbers, you are going to win long term. Now that is all based upon hitting 52.4%. If you have a great season 57%+ then it's more money on the table.

I'm just talking about what we all can do aside from the obvioius sport we are betting on. As we all know, even the best situation can still lose. But by determining our edge and keeping the most money even off of our losses, we will be successful long term.

Could you post this link for the squares please

McAlpine

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2400

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 10:03 PM ET #149

HEY Pho_Q_Pay_Me

Bring back that Japanese model avatar! You owe it to the Forum.

C'mon, don't be selfish. Bring her back.

Please.

Mikado

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 10129

Posted: Feb. 5, 2011 - 10:49 PM ET #150

Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

HEY Pho_Q_Pay_Me

Bring back that Japanese model avatar! You owe it to the Forum.

C'mon, don't be selfish. Bring her back.

Please.

I agree with McAlpine.

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