Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers: 7 pm et
Opening Line: Ind. 10.5/198.5 Current: Ind. 11/197.5
Covers Consensus- Denver 54% - Indiana 46%
Refs- Lehroy Richardson O/U 21-21 Monty Mccutchen O/U 20-18 Kevin Cutler O/U 16-17
Breakdown: Denver comes in game 3 of 4 on a current road trip, with two of their next three on the road as well. They have given up 115, 100, 117, and 126 points in their last 4 games. Clearly, the defense has been a struggle but their defense actually comes in ranked 17th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The reason the numbers look so bad is just because of how fast this team plays. They are currently ranked second in the NBA in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. However, with the increased possession the offense is only ranked 11 in the NBA with an Offense Efficiency at 104.3. However, many of these stats were when they had both Ty Lawson and Nate Robinson in the line-up, and both will be unavailable for tonight’s game. That means they will have to move Randy Foye to the PG position, who is averaging a solid 2.8 assists per game this year. It would appear that Lawson not only is the most important piece of the Denver offense, but the man that really speeds up the pace for this team. I believe this team will struggle offensively tonight without Lawson and not true pg in the mix. Lawson often calls out many of the plays on his own, so expect more plays tonight to be called from the bench.
After giving up 117 and 126 points in their previous two games, you got to believe that Shaw will try to implement more defense in tonight’s ballgame. Coming from Indiana, he has been known for his defensive approach. At the beginning of the year he had this team playing much more defense and slowing the pace. However, with this the offense struggled mightily, he has starting to turn the tempo up more again. This team is struggling though, and I believe he realizes without Lawson he needs to slow the tempo down in order to be successful. I believe there will be an emphasis from the Nuggets on defense tonight, and without Lawson wouldn’t be surprised to see this team only get to 95 possession. A three point jump shooting in the third game of a 7 game road trip (1 game back at home then back on the road for 2 more so essentially another away game), one could expect some missed shots and bricks.
Indiana comes in after a one point loss last night against the magic in a game that they absolutely pissed away. They lead by 15 in the third quarter and just feel apart in the fourth quarter. The players all talked about after the game “we gotta finish” and this and that. It appears that they are not going to take the fact that they want the number side lightly. I would be very surprised to see a lackluster effort tonight after the loss last night.
Indiana ranked 18th in pace, getting in 95.8 possession in a game. There Offensive efficiency comes in at 18th as well, averaging 103 points per 100 possession. There defense however is the real staple of this team. They give up 94 points per 100 possession which is 1st overall in Defensive Efficiency. I expect that with conflicting styles tonight of Denver’s “fast” and Indiana’s “slow,” Indiana pace should win out. Being 11 point favorites and not having Ty Lawson all seem to point at the fact that this game should be played at Indiana’s pace and not Denvers.
As well, with Indiana favorite of 11.5 points it is unlikely that the game will be close. Hopefully this means we can avoid overtime or free throw shooting at the end of the game.
Last Meeting: Indiana 96 v. Denver 109 : Indiana -2/203. Game was played to Denver 103 possession and Indiana 100, both teams much below their pace per game as discussed above. Denver had an advantage of shooting 37 free throws in the game, which lead to increase scoring. Indiana has a revenge factor here which should lead to their pace of play dominating the game.
Concerns:
1. If Denver ends up controlling pace, this game will likely go over the total. But for the reasons I have outlined above, I do not believe that Denver can control the game pace without Ty Lawson
2. Indiana played last night a tight down to the wire game, legs could be tried and the defense may suffer.
3. Weird line movement, the total has gone from 199.5 to 196.5 and then back up to 198. Double Reserve is rare in totals, there might be something someone is seeing that I am not.
Play: Indiana/Denver under 197.5.
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