Posted:
#51
@Wizerguy
I remember you posted your scenarios a few years ago. I've been following them ever since. Good luck, and thanks Wizer!
0
~ 2026 NBA Playoffs ~
Thanks bro
Posted:
#54
Tuesday 4/21
Detroit _Houston ML Parlay
Boston -14
Portland +12.5
Wed 4/22
Detroit -8
Phoenix +17.5
Looks like NBA playoff Strategy #1 & #2 came through tonight.
_Thur 4/23
Toronto +3 Hammer ..pending ( Strategy #5) ( will post Strategy #2A, 3 & 4 from the book and #5 & #6 ( my own personal) strategies tomorrow.
Atlanta ML (-120) Hammer
Toronto ML +130 Hammer
Detroit ML_ Toronto +4.5 Hammer
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
3
Posted:
#60
Strategy #2A
Play the visiting underdog in game 2 of a series if they lost game one by a margin of 14-19 pts.
By reducing the margin of the blowout, we automatcally increase our number of plays for this strategy.
Combining Strategies #2 and #2A offers a significant high % win rate. I would even consider a loss of 12-19 pts similar to what we had witnessed this past week with Minnesota +7.5 and Portland +11.5, not only covering the spread but winning the game stra8 up
Strategy # 3
Winning a 5th and deciding 1st round game on their home court. They were all either the #1 or #2 seeds facing, of course, the #7 or #8 seeded squads.What would you think the chances of a highy seeded home team was of winning a 5th and deciding game ?. I myself would consider it very high, like a 90% chance or better
The point is that there is not much of a chance of the better squad, on their home court, getting eliminated from the playoffs. They may not cover the pointsprraed, but they will win the game at least 90% of the time.
This is not one of my favorite strategies. It all depends on what the point spread ( more ideal a short line) or combining with another squad in the same scenario in a ML parlay.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
1
Posted:
#68
Strategy #4
Do you remember the NBA Playoff Strategy #2 where we took the visiting underdog in game 2 after they were blown out in game 1. This next strategy is just a mirror of that situation but it just happens later in the series, specifically in game 4
Play on the visiting team in game 4 of any series if they were blown out by the home team in game 3 by 20 or more points
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Posted:
#69
Strategy #5 ( My own personal strategy from experience with this situation over the past several years)
Play on the home team in game 3 of any series if they lost game 1 & 2 on the road straight up and ATS. However, dont follow it blindly. Handicapp both teams last 3-4 games home / away stats ie PF - PA / FG % / 3pt% etc, Compute a predicted score using the high /low method with the road teams last 4 road games.This is done by taking the higest score and the lowest score on the offense in that 4 game road series and eliminate them. Then take the other 2 offensive scores add them together and divided by 2. That will give you an educated guess on the average score of how the team has performed recently on the road called a " Recent Form Model" Perform the same calculation with that teams defense. To tighten things up, use last 3 games as well. Both queries should basically be the same.
Use the same method to calculate the home teams average offense and defensive scoring. Once you have the average offense and defensive scoring of both clubs. Take the road teams offense and add the home teams defense and subtract 100 ( which is the theoretically the average score of an NBA team) Thats the road teams predicted score on offense. Use the same method with the home team. This will give you a margin of victory and a prediction on the winner and the loser and can be used to base your line on. Of course this not fool proof, but what else what do we have to go by other than what has actually taken place..
We also use Massey ratings to calculate road teams and home teams last 3-4 opponents ratings ( recent form), then compute an average on that which is another story. This will give you the caliber of competition in Team A's and Team B's 3-4 recent road or home games which ever the case may be
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
1
Posted:
#70
Strategy #6 ( Zig Zag method) My own personal strategy
Take the higher seeded team on the road in game 3 that is off a game 2 home loss. Game must also be handicapped properly checking last 3-4 road stats, and 3-4 home stats for their opponent. Also go back in the schedule to see how this team has fared in that opponents venue.
Play on Denver ML
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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