Posted:
#251
@DrDogs
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
~ 2026 NBA Playoffs ~
Posted:
#256
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs: @Wizerguy You ain’t wrong. These games are head shakers. I have no clue, mostly. You’ve been making me large. I understand if you need to take a rest, but I could use your cheese powers! Im definitey done wagering in these playoffs, Im up a fairly decent amount. However, I will continue to post plays moving forward for people like you, but will not use any of these plays toward my record on covers. Im offically done. We have an NBA Playoff Strategy #1 in play tonight ( post #45) Thunder -6 (-124) Hammer
Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs: @Wizerguy You ain’t wrong. These games are head shakers. I have no clue, mostly. You’ve been making me large. I understand if you need to take a rest, but I could use your cheese powers! Im definitey done wagering in these playoffs, Im up a fairly decent amount. However, I will continue to post plays moving forward for people like you, but will not use any of these plays toward my record on covers. Im offically done. We have an NBA Playoff Strategy #1 in play tonight ( post #45) Thunder -6 (-124) Hammer
You have to trust the system plays, so I'm on this tonight. That said, last night was my 1st play in 10 days. I can't stand this BS NBA. Looking forward to football season.
As always, thank you Wizer for everything you do here!
0
well Done tonight
Posted:
#268
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Strategy #5 ( My own personal strategy from experience with this situation over the past several years) Play on the home team in game 3 of any series if they lost game 1 & 2 on the road straight up and ATS. PA / FG However, dont follow it blindly. Handicapp both teams last 3-4 games home / away stats ie PF -% / 3pt% etc, Compute a predicted score using the high /low method with the road teams last 4 road games.This is done by taking the higest score and the lowest score on the offense in that 4 game road series and eliminate them. Then take the other 2 offensive scores add them together and divided by 2. That will give you an educated guess on the average score of how the team has performed recently on the road called a " Recent Form Model" Perform the same calculation with that teams defense. To tighten things up, use last 3 games as well. Both queries should basically be the same. Use the same method to calculate the home teams average offense and defensive scoring. Once you have the average offense and defensive scoring of both clubs. Take the road teams offense and add the home teams defense and subtract 100 ( which is the theoretically the average score of an NBA team) Thats the road teams predicted score on offense. Use the same method with the home team. This will give you a margin of victory and a prediction on the winner and the loser and can be used to base your line on. Of course this not fool proof, but what else what do we have to go by other than what has actually taken place.. We also use Massey ratings to calculate road teams and home teams last 3-4 opponents ratings ( recent form), then compute an average on that which is another story. This will give you the caliber of competition in Team A's and Team B's 3-4 recent road or home games which ever the case may be
Strategy #5 ( My own personal strategy from experience with this situation over the past several years) Play on the home team in game 3 of any series if they lost game 1 & 2 on the road straight up and ATS. PA / FG However, dont follow it blindly. Handicapp both teams last 3-4 games home / away stats ie PF -% / 3pt% etc, Compute a predicted score using the high /low method with the road teams last 4 road games.This is done by taking the higest score and the lowest score on the offense in that 4 game road series and eliminate them. Then take the other 2 offensive scores add them together and divided by 2. That will give you an educated guess on the average score of how the team has performed recently on the road called a " Recent Form Model" Perform the same calculation with that teams defense. To tighten things up, use last 3 games as well. Both queries should basically be the same. Use the same method to calculate the home teams average offense and defensive scoring. Once you have the average offense and defensive scoring of both clubs. Take the road teams offense and add the home teams defense and subtract 100 ( which is the theoretically the average score of an NBA team) Thats the road teams predicted score on offense. Use the same method with the home team. This will give you a margin of victory and a prediction on the winner and the loser and can be used to base your line on. Of course this not fool proof, but what else what do we have to go by other than what has actually taken place.. We also use Massey ratings to calculate road teams and home teams last 3-4 opponents ratings ( recent form), then compute an average on that which is another story. This will give you the caliber of competition in Team A's and Team B's 3-4 recent road or home games which ever the case may be
We will play against this Strategy because the capping of this game using the Home /Away 3-4 game series (recent home/away form) shows NYK BIG
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
1
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