WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (6/26)

TOURNAMENT:   82-53-1 (BIG PLAY: 29-17-1)

Today my mom turns 82 and I am going to celebrate it with back to back solid days.  I was horrible for a couple days this week but otherwise we have profited almost every other day in the tournament.  Today should be no different.  

For people that want to come in the threads and spew useless commentary, you do have a choice.  If you dont like what you see or hear, move on.  You don't have to comment I will rarely respond to negativity.  I did so a couple of days back and it literally crushed me like never before.  Of course, the trolls aren't posting plays or doing analysis, but I'm just not going to entertain anything less than fun in a forum where I am trying to help people and HAVE FUN!  Losing is never fun but it's not a one day sprint, never has been for me.  I just turn the page and look to a new day of possibilities (it's hard to do so after losing that parlay last night).

Today the games are going to be more exciting than some might think. So happy I didn't just follow my heart and lay coin on the USA but rather on the scoring in that game.  Such is not the case with the France/Norway game and given my mom is my French connection. I will also honor her for her bday with the play.

But that is not why I am siding with France.  Both teams have secured the knockouts and Norway will have done so for the first time and won 2 games at the Cup for the first time.  Such is certainly not the story for the French who will not be taken by surprise by the Norweigans and, due to Norways play the first two games, will call upon the French first choice lineup, which I'm afraid is not good news for Norway.

The real advantage is on the substitution bench where, if France were to struggle, they have a plethora of game changers to choose from. Norway does not.  And the injury to Julian Ryerson will be tough to overcome as my hunch is Norway will not want to risk further injury knowing they have advanced. But he's a big part of their defense and so his loss opens up the wings for guys like Olise to just rake down the side and produce deliveries into the box.

Norway have never beaten another European opponent at a World Cup finals (D2, L3) and France have won five successive World Cup wins against European opposition so there is a bit of mismatch historically.  I see no way that France does not at worst draw here to win the group.  France have also scored 2+ goals in 14 of their last 15 games so I believe there will be some goals here and Norway will want to push.

The issue is for Norway that France haven't conceded a FH goal and nine of the ten goals in Norway’s group games at this World Cup have arrived after the half-hour mark.  But the French do seem to concede and Norway have plenty of people capable of scoring.

The site won't let me post the plays as the original post went too long.  Maybe I should limit the writeup moving forward.  But here are the plays...

YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (FRANCE/NORWAY) -170...BIG PLAY!!!:  I just don't see how this game doesn't have a goal in it for both teams.  Six of France’s last seven matches saw both teams score and eight of Norway’s last nine internationals saw both teams score so that's a trend worth wagering on as are both starting lineups that will remain strong with high stakes in this match.

FRANCE -1 (-120):  I truly believe France will win this game they are just a much better side.  But Norway are confident, disciplined, and have been playing great so I'd rather take the -1 at lower odds than the -175 and drop coin as I murmur to myself that I should have known better.

FRANCE FH (-105):  This is the game I think France comes out and gets on the board early.  I know that they will most likely have to defend in the 2nd half if they do get the lead but with Mbappe and friends they could very well even have a 2 goal lead at the half, Norways' weakness is in defense.

I will be back on for the other game too as I see some value in those two squads playing even though they are named Senegal and Iraq.  Same as in the Paraguay/Australia game that I didn't play last night but said would have close to no goals (in fact no goals were scored), this time I think the Senegal/Iraq game have quite a few scored.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

I also think Didier Deschamps NOT being there will open things up for France.  Someone posted no Haaland and a heavily rotated lineup for Norway but lineups usually come out 90 minutes before kickoff so trying to corroborate that.  Wont' matter b/c if they are in the game then Haaland will come on in 2nd half but would be odd given if they win they win the group unless they think they have zero chance, which wouldn't be like Norway.

Norway making major changes today. No haaland starting and probably way more then that.  Good for france but i need to see their lineup. 

Thank you for your picks ! 

I took usa vs turkiye over 3.5 parlayed with BTTS YES and parlay with Paraguay vs Australia BTTS NO

2nd place plays ivory coast so not the worst thing not to risk haaland and others here.

I just did a search and read he was starting.  Flashscore has some predicted lineup that would make zero sense.  @Brooklyncapper yes, wait for lineups but the odds should be considerably higher if the Norweigans just rest guys.  And my FH play would become a big play b/c France will be full throttle ahead and Mbappe gonna be wanting to rise to challenge for Golden Boot vs. Messi 

Its on threads. Says him and odegaard on the bench and 7 other changes

@LAGameofInches

 Messi wont play vs jordan either

LET'S GO!! Back in the saddle,  pushing forward and grinding!!

God bless old moms. They get so much sweeter with age, turning into these spectacular little angels.

These matches where the european power team has already qualified are tough to call unless you know something about how they will approach the match - their priorities. It's usually hanging back, protect and rest players.

I want France to win the group. Will be interesting for Colombia vs Portugal tomorrow if France takes second in the group later today.

BOL bro , and a happy birthday to that mom of yours! 

@Brooklyncapper Thanks that wont' change my play at all maybe even as I said take France to a big play.  And the Ivory Coast are NOT a walkover.  I'll wait on lineups in an hour or so and then bump up if need be.  None of what I see happening includes Norway winning.

In the second game, as I stated in the original plays, I am going with what I envision happening and I'm not going to overthink it.  If it loses, it loses but I do like this play.

OVER 3.5 (SENEGAL/IRAQ) +135:  Let me explain.  Iraq scored against Norway but got shut out against France.  I think a big reason for them not registering a goal had less to do with France's play and more to do with some bad luck and the weather.  But Senegals' defense has been torched the first couple of games and don't kid yourself, it was not only b/c of who they played.  Not to mention their first choice GK will likely not play so giving up a goal here is in my mind going to happen.  Senegal on the other hand have to score goals and know they realistically will have a chance to advance if they do and considering four of Senegal’s last five games featured over 3.5 goals it's another trend worth playing given the type of game we should expect. 

Only thing to consider with this play is that the three games that were previously played in Toronto all ended 1-0.  So not a great omen for the above or else it would be a big play.  Otherwise I have total confidence and would have played the game as a YES BTTS but Senegal have kept eight clean sheets in their last ten international wins so that's the only hiccup.  

Bro, that's really so true and I'm so thankful you scripted that.  My mom has shrunk like 4 inches so she's not even 5 foot anymore.  But all she wants is the best for me and my brother and her grandkids.  My father passed 27 years ago and she has showed us what strength really is.  She's also been riddled with Parkinsons and is in assisted living but every day she just wakes up and pushes forward despite what life has thrown at her.  She truly has become an angel and I really am touched you stated that so thanks for coming in here and bringing positive vibes.

Now let's get us some wins for mom!

YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (FRANCE/NORWAY)

Strange line now -146 from -174

-138 now - that is a 36 point swing. Any concern here?

@Brooklyncapper Now line just popped to 235 so I'm glad I took France before the true announcement but now the -1 is juiced to -175 so that will make it tough for others to tail unless they did so after reading the post.  

Great information and teamwork though.  YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is now even more interesting at -135.  So that becomes a gift imo.

@Soprano1

 Seemed like there was confusion on whether or not Haaland is starting. If he starts made sense for it to be -174 for BTTS but with it dropping that shows that Haaland and some of their other starters are indeed not starting. 

@Soprano1

None.  Norway will sub some guys late too so might grab a later goal but the -1 on France will be hard for you all to tail (I already placed mine earlier before news broke).  I am thinking of bumping the France FH to a big play now even though the odds have increased since.

Seems the books think Norway will just concede this game BTTS line crashing and not slowing down might hit PK odds before kickoff. I took at -170 so horrible price 

lol I got it at -174 jeez

What do you think of France ML + Over 2.5 Parlay -115?

BOL today 

would be worried about any total with the lineup Norway is playing. France likely go up 2-0 and both teams quit playing

Here here to moms and their kids who are around with them.