This is from a 16 page situational handicapping book from Jerry Higgins I purchased in 2003, cant find an updating version. However, the strategies seem to hold true today with this first round. There are a total of 4 strategies listed in his book,
Monday we had Minnesota in game 2 that fit Strategy #2 some what, they didnt make the 14 pt loss mark, but still losing by the mark by 3 pts constituted a play imo, and yesterday we had two teams that fit strategy #2 and #2A, I neglected Strategy#2 ( Philly +14@ Boston) because of " I just couldnt believe that it would happen, and it did happen. Philly blown out by 20 or more pts in Game #1, installed as a 14pt dog in Game #2. In fact, In Game #2 Philly +14 not only covered, but won the game str8 up. I went with Strategy #2A on the Portland +11.5 game even though it was 1pt off the mark from a 14 pt loss.. they covered the # and won str8 up as well. Tonight we have a play on Strategy #1. Going to list the 4 Strategies to be used in the NBA Playoffs.
We are still in the early stages of the playoffs, so lets see how these do moving forward. Handicapping these games can be difficult and we should never negate the statistical part, but still , which I believe is more important with this types of seven game playoff scenarios, one must definitely keep mind of the "spot" or the "situational" theory that exists with these teams and the "spot" that they are.The book says the strategies hit at a 67% clip. Im going to add my own strategy in a #5 scenario with a team off 2 losses on the road, coming back home in a Game #3. Play the home team ML / or spread. ( reasonable spread). These sceanrios are consistant with Sports Psychology 101 and the Psychological mindset of a team
NBA Playoff Strategy #1
This playoff strategy says that you should play on the home team in Game two of a series if they lost game one straight up. The reason this play makes sense is that the home team , the higher seeded squad has put itself in a situation that if it loses the 2nd game at home they will be forced to go on the road down 0-2 with not much chance of winning the series and advancing to the next round. They may have been surprised by the visitors in game 1 and came out a little flat or a bit more over confident. Rest assured though, they "WILL be ready to play in game 2. Play on Detroit -9.5. Me personally don t like that high of a spread, oddsmakers may have caught up to this strategy and inflated the line. However, if you can pair Detroit ML with another team ML or spread in a parlay, you may have a winner. I already tried it with Detroit ML and Houston ML, Houston never showed up so it killed that play.
Strategy #2
The reasoning behind this play is that the home team, fresh off an easy victory, may show up for game 2 a bit complacent while the vistor( a playoff caliber team) does not want to get behind 0-2 in the series and should come out with a more concerted effort as we had just witnessed with Minnesota +7.5 , Philadelphia +14 and Portland +11.5, all covered the # and low and behold won the game straight up. Amazing, and I wasnt paying attention, but I am now and forever. No team likes to get embarrased and a " playoff caliber" team will usually bounce bak with a much better game after such a lopsided loss. Simpl put, the visitor in this situation would seem to have the emotional egde
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
1
This is from a 16 page situational handicapping book from Jerry Higgins I purchased in 2003, cant find an updating version. However, the strategies seem to hold true today with this first round. There are a total of 4 strategies listed in his book,
Monday we had Minnesota in game 2 that fit Strategy #2 some what, they didnt make the 14 pt loss mark, but still losing by the mark by 3 pts constituted a play imo, and yesterday we had two teams that fit strategy #2 and #2A, I neglected Strategy#2 ( Philly +14@ Boston) because of " I just couldnt believe that it would happen, and it did happen. Philly blown out by 20 or more pts in Game #1, installed as a 14pt dog in Game #2. In fact, In Game #2 Philly +14 not only covered, but won the game str8 up. I went with Strategy #2A on the Portland +11.5 game even though it was 1pt off the mark from a 14 pt loss.. they covered the # and won str8 up as well. Tonight we have a play on Strategy #1. Going to list the 4 Strategies to be used in the NBA Playoffs.
We are still in the early stages of the playoffs, so lets see how these do moving forward. Handicapping these games can be difficult and we should never negate the statistical part, but still , which I believe is more important with this types of seven game playoff scenarios, one must definitely keep mind of the "spot" or the "situational" theory that exists with these teams and the "spot" that they are.The book says the strategies hit at a 67% clip. Im going to add my own strategy in a #5 scenario with a team off 2 losses on the road, coming back home in a Game #3. Play the home team ML / or spread. ( reasonable spread). These sceanrios are consistant with Sports Psychology 101 and the Psychological mindset of a team
NBA Playoff Strategy #1
This playoff strategy says that you should play on the home team in Game two of a series if they lost game one straight up. The reason this play makes sense is that the home team , the higher seeded squad has put itself in a situation that if it loses the 2nd game at home they will be forced to go on the road down 0-2 with not much chance of winning the series and advancing to the next round. They may have been surprised by the visitors in game 1 and came out a little flat or a bit more over confident. Rest assured though, they "WILL be ready to play in game 2. Play on Detroit -9.5. Me personally don t like that high of a spread, oddsmakers may have caught up to this strategy and inflated the line. However, if you can pair Detroit ML with another team ML or spread in a parlay, you may have a winner. I already tried it with Detroit ML and Houston ML, Houston never showed up so it killed that play.
Strategy #2
The reasoning behind this play is that the home team, fresh off an easy victory, may show up for game 2 a bit complacent while the vistor( a playoff caliber team) does not want to get behind 0-2 in the series and should come out with a more concerted effort as we had just witnessed with Minnesota +7.5 , Philadelphia +14 and Portland +11.5, all covered the # and low and behold won the game straight up. Amazing, and I wasnt paying attention, but I am now and forever. No team likes to get embarrased and a " playoff caliber" team will usually bounce bak with a much better game after such a lopsided loss. Simpl put, the visitor in this situation would seem to have the emotional egde
Still have 4 more strategies. Wouldnt let me post past the above because of the amount of characters..life is calling, be back later with #2A #3, #4 and my own personal #5
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
0
Still have 4 more strategies. Wouldnt let me post past the above because of the amount of characters..life is calling, be back later with #2A #3, #4 and my own personal #5
Detroit -8.5 ( buying to -8 (-120) ( Play on home team that lost straight up in game 1) and will also play parlay..
Detroit ML w / Toronto +4.5 (-134) Hammer ( Toronto is my personal Strategy #5 play. Play on Game 3 home dog that lost B2B roadies in a series game 1 & 2) I capped Clevelands last 3-4 roadies vs Toronto's last 3-4 homers. Toronto "should" win str8 up in convincing fashion, but il gladly buy up in the parlay just in case.
Strategy #2 Play
Phoenix +17.5 ( Play on visiting dog in game 2 , that was blown out by 20+ in game 1) I think OKC will win, but with the compalcency tag over their head.. covering 17.5 is asking alot
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
1
Adding:
Strategy #1 Play
Detroit -8.5 ( buying to -8 (-120) ( Play on home team that lost straight up in game 1) and will also play parlay..
Detroit ML w / Toronto +4.5 (-134) Hammer ( Toronto is my personal Strategy #5 play. Play on Game 3 home dog that lost B2B roadies in a series game 1 & 2) I capped Clevelands last 3-4 roadies vs Toronto's last 3-4 homers. Toronto "should" win str8 up in convincing fashion, but il gladly buy up in the parlay just in case.
Strategy #2 Play
Phoenix +17.5 ( Play on visiting dog in game 2 , that was blown out by 20+ in game 1) I think OKC will win, but with the compalcency tag over their head.. covering 17.5 is asking alot
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