I don't post much in baseball and haven't been great when I have posted this year. But there is enough conviction on a play tonight for me to post a play and my reasoning for doing so.
I appreciate those who are backing the OVER tonight but I'm not one of them. At all. The pressure tonight is squarely on TB and I think they actually play a bit better with pressure on them, that's kind of the construct of this team and Kevin Cash. They are playing at home which is more of a pitchers park and, while I realize this season's version of the Brewers is not like those of years past, the past teams have been pretty awful on the road. So I do think they will find it a bit tougher to source runs tonight vs. the first two games.
But that's not even the reasoning for this play. Every year, usually during the World Series, there is one young arm most have never heard of that put themselves on the map. Last year it was Yessavage, this year I think that guy is Robert Gasser, and he starts tonight for the second time in the postseason with an opportunity to do just that. He has a wicked arsenal of pitches and a great slider that produces ground balls and I think will keep the pesky TB baserunners from taking bases as they have all series. Not to mention he has one of the best defenses playing behind him.
Opposing him will be Freddy Peralta, who is pitching against his former team in the World Series. That is far different than pitching against them in a regular season game and given his toughness, I expect him to be zoned in! He has been pitching lights out the past few months and giving him extra motivation will only help him prosper, at least in my opinion.
Don't fool yourselves, Pat Murphy is going to want to win this game as well and put a choke hold on the Rays. For that reason, I think both managers will opt to use their bullpen early should they feel reason to. And both bullpens are really sharp.
I think the one area where Tampa has cost themselves is in their defense and if they can clean that up, I think there are fewer runs on the board those first two games. And my money is on them doing so tonight.
UNDER 3.5 FH Alt line (+105)
UNDER 7 (-107)... BIG PLAY!!!
I know how good the Brewers bats are but I think today it's just different. In my personal view, I see a very low scoring and close game until the final out, clearly keeping it under 7. I'm aware that most people see the game differently, but that's why we post our reasoning with our plays. I'm dropping some big coin on this but that doesn't mean you should. Do your own research and stay optimistic. Under aren't easy to hit- I know it hit in Game 1- but I think this time around it will be. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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