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Posted: #26
What I like about Oberholtzer is last season (small sample size, granted) is his HR/FB was 7.1%, which would put him in the top 10 of all pitchers.  Toronto lives and dies on the long ball and if Oberholtzer keeps it in the park, I think it keeps his team in the game.  Maybe the Toronto TT under 4.5 is the better play.  But man...+162 is fat.
 
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Posted: #27
I can dig the Mets 1st 5 play.  Colon is solid while Harang was a last minute addition to the Braves rotation.  The Braves wouldn't start him unless they were desperate for an arm, which they are.

Getting Morton at a cheap price against a horrible Edwin Jackson seems appealing now that I'm looking at it.  The Edwin Jackson that went 8-18 in 2013 with a 1.46 WHIP and 4.98 ERA.  He's plain bad.
 
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Posted: #28
Eh scratch the Pittsburgh idea.  I like it but not enough to put money on it.
 
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Posted: #29
Looks like my Yankees TT under wager is about to be toast.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

im starting to think that the balt yanks over is the play rather than the side (rlm)

 



I hope you took that train because that was a good call
 
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Posted: #31
Adding:

HOU/TOR under 9 -110 (3.3/3)

I just can't pull the trigger on the Astros...the line is that high for a reason.  But I can pull the trigger on this under.  Buehrle owns the Stros, giving up 1ER in 17 innings pitched over 2 starts vs. them last season.  The final scores in both games were 4-0 and 2-1, both Jays wins.

As mentioned earlier I like what Oberholtzer brings to the table in this matchup.  Toronto doesn't hit lefties as well as righties, and Oberholtzer gives up a very low % of home runs per fly ball.  Toronto scores most of its runs via the long ball and I think we'll see another low scoring affair here.

That's all I'm adding.  Not pushing my luck with anything else.

Final card:

TEX ML +130 (3/3.9)
TEX TT OVER 4 -115 (3.45/3) 
NYY TT UNDER 4.5 -135 (2.7/2)
WAS ML -174 (3.48/2)
HOU/TOR under 9 -110 (3.3/3)

And I'm on the Brew Crew with tigermike
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:


The Mets maybe with Colon in a first five play, as I will not be playing the Mets full game very often with their bullpen make up, and especially not against the Braves. I don't think Harang is -130 to Colon, his great first start notwithstanding..

Mostly likely I am just staying with O's and Brewers and possibly the parlay I mentioned, and maybe a west coast night cap.



Does that mean you would favor a 2nd half play on the braves?  Mets bullpen, braves bats, kimbrel closing
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by atl4tigerfan:



Does that mean you would favor a 2nd half play on the braves?  Mets bullpen, braves bats, kimbrel closing

I really don't make 2nd half plays, other than the occasional live play. The biggest reason I don't like asking them is simpy because if the first half goes crazy, a blow out either way, then you see the lesser bullpen guys and a couple of runs either way do not mean much to the guys on the field. As much as I think this game stays close early with a reasonable expectation the Mets take a lead into the 6th, I would hate to have a Braves 2nd half bet in a 9-1 type of game....
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Adding:

HOU/TOR under 9 -110 (3.3/3)

I just can't pull the trigger on the Astros...the line is that high for a reason.  But I can pull the trigger on this under.  Buehrle owns the Stros, giving up 1ER in 17 innings pitched over 2 starts vs. them last season.  The final scores in both games were 4-0 and 2-1, both Jays wins.

As mentioned earlier I like what Oberholtzer brings to the table in this matchup.  Toronto doesn't hit lefties as well as righties, and Oberholtzer gives up a very low % of home runs per fly ball.  Toronto scores most of its runs via the long ball and I think we'll see another low scoring affair here.

That's all I'm adding.  Not pushing my luck with anything else.

Final card:

TEX ML +130 (3/3.9)
TEX TT OVER 4 -115 (3.45/3) 
NYY TT UNDER 4.5 -135 (2.7/2)
WAS ML -174 (3.48/2)
HOU/TOR under 9 -110 (3.3/3)

And I'm on the Brew Crew with tigermike
Good luck on these, done with everything out in the world now. Seems like a reasonable under 9, but I really blow with totals. I stick to mainly sides and first fives. I will be rooting for you.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by atl4tigerfan:



Does that mean you would favor a 2nd half play on the braves?  Mets bullpen, braves bats, kimbrel closing
After looking at the 2nd half lines, I see why you were asking, that is a real head scratcher to me with the Mets at -115....
 
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Posted: #36
Taking the Bomber Under in anyway TT or U/U is like playing with Dynamite, eventually it will blow up.  I have made a decent income over the years only betting Yanks, the AL East and few team I follow closely ie Miami and Colorado. My stupid rule is never bet against the Yanks or Sox, ever.  Never take the Yanks under, in any capacity. Never take the Sox under at home.  Simple, but on any given night these teams can blow up and ruin your day.  Chen is garbage, and Nova is the most erratic I have ever seen walking 5 in Houston last week.  

Good luck today fellas 
 
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Posted: #37
Yeah Barbosa I was certainly playing with fire with the Yanks TT under 4.5, but all I can do is call it like I see it and hope for the best.

Congrats to Johnson and Soriano for notching their first home runs of the season on the day I picked the TT under   Win some lose some...it's a lonnnng season!
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

Good luck on these, done with everything out in the world now. Seems like a reasonable under 9, but I really blow with totals. I stick to mainly sides and first fives. I will be rooting for you.


Judging by my totals record so far this season I should also probably stick to sides.  With my luck the Jays will go yard 4 times tonight lol  I look forward to what you come up with for any west coast leans.  I'm more of an east coast guy and don't follow the west coast teams as closely.

The Angels/Mariners game is interesting.  The Mariners were awful vs. LHP in 2013 but Cano in that lineup might change that.  He's one of my favorite hitters in baseball. 
 
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Posted: #39
And be patient Texas backers...the 5th or 6th inning is normally when we have a Doubront implosion
 
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Posted: #40
Good call!!! Just happened in the third!!!
 
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Posted: #41
Lol! He's ahead of schedule. Love cashing tt overs in the 3rd!
 
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Posted: #42
Well done sir, you certainly have that Rangers game read dead smack on. Hope they poor on a few more and put in laugher territory.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



Judging by my totals record so far this season I should also probably stick to sides.  With my luck the Jays will go yard 4 times tonight lol  I look forward to what you come up with for any west coast leans.  I'm more of an east coast guy and don't follow the west coast teams as closely.

The Angels/Mariners game is interesting.  The Mariners were awful vs. LHP in 2013 but Cano in that lineup might change that.  He's one of my favorite hitters in baseball. 
I am passing on both late games....I do have to say I like James Paxton. I read somewhere during spring, I think it was Baseball America, that he had changed the delivery on his slider and it had more nasty downward tilt. I watched his first start last week and in my opinion it is a plus pitch as is his fastball. He primarily threw those to pitches along with a show me change up that was average and a cutter that still needs work. He hung a couple that were not taken advantage of by the Angels. His problem in the minors was control and if he has gotten past that issue he could be a pretty good pitcher and surprise many. Angels have to be looking to knock the Mariners around have being broomed at home and have the bats going pretty well. Santiago the good is good and the bad is bad and I really don't have a good read with him yet. If I were to play this game it would be the Mariners.

Tigers with Scherzer under -120? A lot to like there but a couple of variables to consider....Miggy back to 3rd, Victor Martinez to 1st and Nick Castellanos to the bench. Definite downgrade to the defense and Nick has been hitting the ball well.  Haren is streaky, he has had runs of good outings mixed into what have been generally underwhelming seasons that last couple of years. Would lean the D, but I will just hope the Nats bring it home and call it a day. Gio does not have his good stuff and Washington is hitting hard balls right at people. Finally a tight one after some easy pickings this afternoon. Tomorrow is a new day.
 
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Posted: #44
I'm fine with calling it a day. If the nats pen closes the game out and the stros pen stops serving up beach balls I'll be a happy man. Thanks for the Brewers pick! I recouped my Yankees tt whiff on that one. And it looks like you nailed the mets game.
 
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Posted: #45
And thanks for talking me out of Arizona and Houston.  Either one would have been disasters.  Smaller cards ftw
 
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Posted: #46
GREAT STUFF!!
 
 
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Posted: #47
TEX ML +130 (3/3.9)
TEX TT OVER 4 -115 (3.45/3) 
NYY TT UNDER 4.5 -135 (2.7/2)
WAS ML -174 (3.48/2)
HOU/TOR under 9 -110 (3.3/3)

Other than Kelly Johnson's solo shot in the 8th to whiz in my cheerios, in the immortal words of Borat: "I like!  It's a very niice!"
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