Toronto @ CWS discussion

Cease is being incredibly disrespected here imo.

The dude hasn't given up a run in his last 4 starts. He's actually posted a shut out in 5 of his last 6.

What is driving his stats a little obscure is that terrible 3 inning outing vs Boston on May 24th. I watched that one, it was truly one of those rare things where he didn't have his good stuff and Boston jumped him early and often in the count. There's no way to predict when a pitcher isn't 100% ready for a start. Whether it's fatigue, a poor warm up, can't get a good grip on the ball etc...

If you take out that game vs Boston, Cease has 0 earned runs in his last 25.2 innings dating back to May 17th.

The Jays have not seen him yet this year.

They've only seen him once and it was last year. 25 PA's, 7 k's, 1 BB, 4 hits, 1 run. They hit him at .167/.533 and Cease's whip was 0.71.

I'll let you guys talk about Gausman who's been withering down slowly but surely. A few starts ago, TW, who's a big Jay's fan, pointed out that he has been losing control of his splitter. That is Gausman's bread n butter. 

doubt you'll get much discussion these days....most threads are 'lock" threads or obvious fade threads.  

Totally agree with you sac, was just about to post that I was playing Sox on ml at +110.

@undermysac

Gausman has lost confidence and is down to one splitter and heavy fastball ....All batters know he rarely throws the splitter first pitch so they are sitting on it ...Pete Walker is a great coach but cant fix the mind 

@BIGDTITLE

 Not like it was, old timers where are you?? Yay 

Love this bet.  Good luck Sac 

@undermysac

Ive bet on Cease and he bent me over ...Think Im 1-3 ...If i was betting man it would be F5 Over 

Bingo on the analysis. Plus, any pitcher named 'Dylan' has been chunking it lately. Just look at Dylan DeLucia for the Rebels. He was lights out against Auburn a few days ago..Highway 61 Revisited...Ha! Rt2

The Pale Hose is 9-4 in Dylan Cease starts. You sure know how to pick em. But that's how she goes sometimes. 

In those 13 starts, he's given up 4 or more 3 times. He's never given up 3. And 2 or less 10 times.

I think white sox first 5 is a decent way to go I personally would be fg over and just ride the offenses streaks and 2 bad bullpens if the starters dont get completely blown up you could get there 

The Orioles pummeled Gausman in his last start....lookin like they 

knew what was coming...might be tipping his pitches...

In other notes, Yoan Moncada is out hurt. Hitting  .179/.523. Addition by subtraction?

Bullpens last 7 days:

Innings: CWS 22.1, TOR 32.2

BA Allowed: CWS .193, TOR .278

WHIP: CWS 0.85, TOR 1.38

K%: CWS 25.6%, TOR 19.7%

BB%: CWS 3.5%, TOR 7.5%

FIP: CWS 3.89, TOR 6.10

Their bullpen almost coughed that game yesterday up, and Cease doesn't exactly pitch deep into games.  Since the start of 2021 season....45 total starts......he has only completed 6 innings or more in 13 of them.  That is only 29%.  He also hasn't gone past 7 innings in his entire career.......ever.  

I am not knocking him, he is on my fantasy team, I wish he gave me more innings.

For some simple comparison, Adam Wainwright, who is also on my team, has gone 6 or better in 33 out of 45 starts, or 73%.  Total workhorse, even at that age, much respect.

I know the workload of starting pitchers across the game as a whole has dwindled, a lot, but since the start of 2021, Cease's game is almost expected to end and get into the bullpen hands after roughly 5 innings, which is about the MLB average.

Liam Hendricks is out, so is Bummer, and a handful of other RPs on Chicago are currently injured it looks like.  So although I agree with Cease being disrespected a little, I can understand the line and agree with it based on the spot (coming off of a win they just barely held on to), the current situation with Chicago's injuries in the bullpen (Foster/Crick/Hendricks/Bummer), the lineup he is facing, and the fact that he is way more likely to give you 5 innings than 8 innings.......

IDK.......I was bored at work so I wanted to dig into this more.  Good way to kill an hour.  

At the end of the day I think Vegas is just pricing in an expected shorter start and possible bullpen issues against a potentially dangerous lineup more-so than disrespecting Cease that much.  I mean if the guy went 7.1 innings that would amazingly (to me) be a career high for him, and very helpful to that Chicago bullpen.

Good luck on your bets.  I think after what I have been reading and also after checking out some of Gausman recently, I may actually sprinkle a little on the over lol.

@JDD

 agreed

Gausman also pitches better in away games this year than home. Cease doesnt last too long and it will be a bp game more so for the WS than for bjs

I like bjs today with the short line. Def value on bjs. 

I wouldn’t say Cease is being disrespected, he has an almost 4 era at home and a 7 spot in night games. Last year and this year he’s not/ the team, been good as an underdog. 0-2 as a home dog and something like 2-7 as a dog 

@JDD

 Nice opinion and well played Devil's advocate 

Very interesting indeed. BOL.

Team offense last 7 days:

CWS: BA .326, OPS .868, K per 4.57 PA's

TOR: BA .232, OPS .725, K per 4.24 PA's

Nice thread sac, Adam is 40 years old and still pitching 6 or 7 innings a game most of time.

GL on WS today.

Both these teams are 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games respectively.  16-6 between them in last 22.  That is a lot of overs.

No wonder it opened and steamed up......

I detest betting totals........but I may get tricked into this one.  Bullpen issues, 2 decent lineups, Tim Anderson back, historically short starter on home team and a recently struggling starter on away team......and 15 runs combined yesterday......

So basically what I am trying to say is here comes the 2-1 final with 50 LOB 

Gausman on 4 days rest:

BA Allowed .312, OPS Allowed .737, WHIP 1.42, ERA 4.25

Cease on 5 days rest:

BA Allowed .192, OPS Allowed .572, WHIP 1.34, ERA 2.91

Sac

@undermysac

I slept with Kevins Wife and dog ...no bearing on this game but covers is full of trends and useless info so not sure how this factors in 

Depending on where you look -- Toronto is ranked a little higher than CWS  all the way up to 4th and CWS around 14th -- when adjusted for schedule and latest play.

If Cease is on, they will have a hard time hitting him.  But the Toronto bats have been okay last few games against a little better competition.  If their bats stay hot -- then Cease will have another short night.  I think it is worth taking a chance either way.  I just think in one of these games Toronto has value on a blowout.  Maybe this is it, maybe it is not.  But I will say that CWS have slowly seemed to be playing better. 

Should be an interesting game.