Fading Bucks as an OT winner last night. Small Under as well.

No time today, going to visit the FRUITCAKES (in-laws) in the desert.

Today's plays.

Utah 4 units, Detroit and Detroit Over 1 unit each.

 GOOD LUCK FELLAS, ANY BOWL PICKS?

Moth, you changed from Wash to Detroit? Shouldn't it be against Det and for Wash after the beatdown? Perhaps you meant Wash as you posted previously. Det -1 sounds awfully FISHY to me!

With you all the way on Utah. Mia has Christmas day game vs OKC.

I'm also fading the Bucks today. Here is some info...
The Bucks have been great fade material in the second game of a back-to-back. In fact, they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest. They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine to log more than 160 minutes the previous day. It will be tough for Milwaukee to get up for this one against a team it has already defeated twice this season after last night’s big win in Boston and with games against the Nets and Heat on deck.

2 new chases today.

MEM PK GM1 of 3

UTAH +10 GM1 of 3

Official lines but I'm thinking Utah +9 should be okay. However, official line posted decides winner or loser. I'm buying to 10. Am seeing +8.5 some places and +9 in others. Up to you.

Both chase plays are 1% or 1 unit profit plays.

Here is some info on another play I like...
The Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the Chicago Bulls. They come in off back-to-back losses to the Thunder and 76ers and want to put an end to this skid tonight.

The Bulls come in overvalued due to winning two straight and four of their last five. That’s especially the case considering they won at New York last night, handing the Knicks a very rare home loss. This sets Chicago up for a big letdown spot tonight against a Hawks team that wants this one more.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win. The Hawks are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest. Atlanta is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 Saturday games.

One more...

ATL -2 GM1 of 3 official line.

1% or 1 unit profit play

GL today everyone!

Lakers/Clips Seasonal Chase 22-12 ATS...as you know I don't post every game and you might have taken NO vs the Clips this week due to jet lag  and Sac vs the Clips last night and we would have been wrong both times...I don't want to play every game unless I really like it and if you've been following me, you know I DO LIKE THIS ONE...

Lakers vs GS...I will probably go extra on this-at least 2 units...I see multple good reasons to take GS moneyline on this one...GS is the kind of team the Lakers will never be able to stop-fast, especially the backcourt and they also want to prove they belong. Lakers might even play a little Nash tonight-that will only mix it up and he can't guard anyone anyway. They can also shoot 3's and make free throws-huge adv with the guards, AND, the Lakers have excuses-we're getting ready for Nash, Tuesday's more imp, blah, blah, blah.

The bottom line is they will only be mediocre this year and D'Antoni is the wrong coach for Pau Gasol-just wasting his talent and he doesn't know where to fit in...

I'm be taking GS in the first half too. I expect a major blow out here and if I'm wrong tell me why the Lakers win...

GL

Not detroit. Wash. -1

your wrong...why...because im a die hard LAKER fan...j/k buddy...GL to you ,,very frustrating year so far..lets hope they turn it around.

sucks the Detroit/Wash O/U went to 183 - Push. I had to bet it early at 185. Loss.

yeah but I broke even on the first half cashing so that's gambling...but defense, age and free throw shooting will kill this team ...there's going to be value in spots...

adding the Lookers to the OT fade chase

Didn't watch them, maybe that was a good thing...

Hoyasaxa, did you miss my chase play on SAC +14 winner vs Clips?

NFL Week 16 Trends & Angles (angles s*cked last week!)

In a season that has flown by, we have already reached Week 16 of the NFL season. This week, we are carrying over three NFL Trends & Angles that collectively went a nice 3-1 ATS in Week 15.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will point you to live underdogs and live ‘unders’ when we have total angles. All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 16, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first 15 weeks of this season.

Angle #1 - During the month of December only, play against any favorite coming off of two or more losses (53-31-2, 63.1% ATS): There are two reasons why this angle has worked so well. For teams that are still fighting for playoff spots, lines get artificially inflated for that reason alone even though they are not playing well lately. For teams eliminated from the playoff hunt, they are usually playing fellow non-playoff contenders if they are favored after two losses and those types of meaningless games are generally crapshoots with the underdogs having inherent value. Qualifiers: Arizona +7 to 7.5 vs. Chicago, Cincinnati +3½ to 4 and St. Louis +3.5 to 4.

Angle #2 - During the month of December only, play on any road underdog that was an underdog in each of the last two games (72-42-1, 63.2% ATS): Bettors generally tend to stay away from teams that are often underdogs at any time of year, but that becomes even more pronounced in December when these constant dogs are either playing playoff contenders or are underdogs to non-playoff contenders, which is an indication of how poorly perceived the teams are. Thus, books are able to pad these lines and still get public money on the favorites. Qualifiers: Minnesota +8 and Tennessee +13 to 14.

Angle #3 - Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (95-60-4, 61.3% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle swept 2-0 in Week 15. Qualifiers: Detroit +3½ to 4 (Saturday)

Buffalo +4½ to 5,  New York Giants -2½ and Tampa Bay -2.5 to 3 (contradiction to St Louis)

Angle #4 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (171-112-5, 60.4% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs taking on conference foes that they are quite familiar with.. This angle lost its only play in Week 15. Qualifier: Cincinnati +3½ to 4. (Double Angle)

Angle #5 - Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (62-43-3, 59.0% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle won its only play in Week 15 with the 49ers over the Patriots. Qualifier: Cleveland + 12 to 14 vs Denver.

My biggest play, Bears -5 (closing line buy down 1 point official line). This same final game chase matches my "hold your nose" play on Dallas vs Cincy which was a final game chase play. Minimum 2 unit play, or recover loss from last week if you tailed me on the Bears plus 1 unit profit.

Saints +3 to +3.5 or 4 if reasonable. I think Dallas will choke now that the pressure had been dialed up to max! All Dallas media is telling them they are good. Time for a wake-up call vs. Drew Brees! One unit Cryboy fade play...

ATL NBA chase winner with 2 pending. Record now 29-3 with 16 in a row.

Did you know? Cowboys have won the 4th QTR 6 games in a row, minimum by 3 points. (I'm not touching it)

Correction on Bears play, if you lost last week, recover loss and go for 1 unit profit. If you play first time this week, 2 unit play.

Angle out, back in morning.

Angle on your chase that's 26-3-didn't you lose on Mem last night? Or where do I  see  the spreadsheet on this?

On your NFL trends, what is the ATS over the season?

Thanks.

Checking in.  Will update SS later today!.

Yes, MEM lost last night, but it was GM1 of 3. Next game will be Tuesday and it will be a fade of HOU, so the GM2 will be on CHI.

I also lost on Utah last night vs Mia, GM1 of 3. That next game will be a fade of MIA GM2 on Tuesday, that team will be OKC.

I have posted every play here, I have no spreadsheet. I don't always know on the first game if chase is a play for one team 3 games or a fade of one team for 3 games but if GM1 loses I always post on the GM2 what the situation is.

I have not kept track of the NFL angle records. They were pretty good until the last 2 weeks with last week the worst. Take note that the first 2 angles are new and deal with December games only since 2005.

Wish I saw the bears earlier. line is now 7 yikes

pulling the trigger on the bills+4.5

Hoya, just to make sure you aren't confused. Chase losses are not counted until the last game of the chase loses. That has only happened 3 times. Therefore the chase record is 29-3.

I hope this helps.

GOOD LUCK BOYS!  I AM ON TAMPA BAY, EAGLES AND PITTS ML. 

A shot of liquor you may not have tried, will probably have to get a 200ML bottle.

Yukon Jack 100 proof Canadian Liquer.

Smooth and sweet, with a kick. Will knock you on your butt if not careful. Great cold weather shot!

I got Buff at +5, surely they can stay within 3.

On the Bears, buy down to at least 6 if you are playing it. Hopefully they will win by 7.