Posted:
#26
I got BOS at -126 now the line dropped to -112
I got TOR at -135 not the line is -122
any idea why both lines dropped?
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System 2.0 Week 11 (61-28 YTD)
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by KingBruce:
There's a common misconception in betting that bets have to be "worth it" in order for people to bet it, as in they don't want to pay the high juice. But why? The system is 3-0 on games -201 and higher. So when you look at a wager and see you have to bet $200 to win $100 it looks "not worth it". I don't know about you but winning money is worth it to me. Whether I have to bet $110, $150, $200 or $250 to win $100, it's still $100 in the pocket when it wins. Does it suck when you pay that much juice and it loses? Of course. But the system hardly loses on such picks, that's the point. When looking at games with ML's -191 and higher, the system is 4-1. So let's assume on every one of those games we bet $200 to win $100. We would have won $100 four times, and lost $200 once, yielding a profit of $200. Meanwhile you don't want to pay the juice and you are taking teams that are -110. Let's say that you can choose these games at 60%, which is solid. That means you are winning 3 out of every 5 bets. So hypothetically you are winning $100 three times while losing $110 twice, yielding a profit of $80. So while you're out there bashing those who take heavy favorites, they are making more money than you are (assuming they win at as high a percentage as the system does). Over 60% of the system picks have ML's of -140 or lower, so it's not like I'm just only taking heavy favorites without any research to it. This system is well thought out and has been hitting at a high rate since it began. So if you don't like betting favorites then go somewhere else.
There's a common misconception in betting that bets have to be "worth it" in order for people to bet it, as in they don't want to pay the high juice. But why? The system is 3-0 on games -201 and higher. So when you look at a wager and see you have to bet $200 to win $100 it looks "not worth it". I don't know about you but winning money is worth it to me. Whether I have to bet $110, $150, $200 or $250 to win $100, it's still $100 in the pocket when it wins. Does it suck when you pay that much juice and it loses? Of course. But the system hardly loses on such picks, that's the point. When looking at games with ML's -191 and higher, the system is 4-1. So let's assume on every one of those games we bet $200 to win $100. We would have won $100 four times, and lost $200 once, yielding a profit of $200. Meanwhile you don't want to pay the juice and you are taking teams that are -110. Let's say that you can choose these games at 60%, which is solid. That means you are winning 3 out of every 5 bets. So hypothetically you are winning $100 three times while losing $110 twice, yielding a profit of $80. So while you're out there bashing those who take heavy favorites, they are making more money than you are (assuming they win at as high a percentage as the system does). Over 60% of the system picks have ML's of -140 or lower, so it's not like I'm just only taking heavy favorites without any research to it. This system is well thought out and has been hitting at a high rate since it began. So if you don't like betting favorites then go somewhere else.
Well said the juice in baseball, hockey is nothing compared to football or basketball for a straight up winner
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:
Earlier in the day and from the open there has been steady money coming in the opposite sides so I've been waiting, not realizing that it would drop this much. Both might be dogs by first pitch!
Earlier in the day and from the open there has been steady money coming in the opposite sides so I've been waiting, not realizing that it would drop this much. Both might be dogs by first pitch!
Yeah pretty upset that I put the bets in so early I actually thought the opposite would happen I put a nice chunk of my BR on these two games.
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Posted:
#31
Boston opened @ -135 and at the time of this post was -128 average, so it looked like the money was coming in on the Rays, now my place has them -113. I'm still waiting to go in.
Toronto opened @ -142 and at the time of the post was -135 average and it hung there for a few hours, so same as above. Currently my place has them -105 and still waiting here as well.
Only thing I can think of is some service is hot and has these two games and released them right around 4PM.
A good deal of KB plays have lines moving towards his picks, some won, some lost, but it usually make people nervous.
Just pure speculation on my part. GLTA
Toronto opened @ -142 and at the time of the post was -135 average and it hung there for a few hours, so same as above. Currently my place has them -105 and still waiting here as well.
Only thing I can think of is some service is hot and has these two games and released them right around 4PM.
A good deal of KB plays have lines moving towards his picks, some won, some lost, but it usually make people nervous.
Just pure speculation on my part. GLTA
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Posted:
#35
Last couple times when the line drops like it does, best to play opposite, or no play. Interesting how this is occuring with some plays. Best to wait till last minute to play in case line drops. No matter how you play, a win is a win, so if it means taking the other side and getting a W so be it.
These plays have been money, I've never seen anyone hit consistently like KB. Much appreciated, KB.
These plays have been money, I've never seen anyone hit consistently like KB. Much appreciated, KB.
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Posted:
#38
That's really weird. That happened a few weeks ago if you guys remember where 2 or 3 of my system picks in a row dropped drastically from -145 to -105. I'm not really sure if it's just coincidence but it's strange that lately the games I pick have drastic line drops. Maybe I should monitor this.
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by KingBruce:
As many of you know I like to post my plays for night games at around noon or 1 but I'm gonna try waiting until like 4 so that I can monitor if the games the system is choosing continue to have line drops throughout the day
As many of you know I like to post my plays for night games at around noon or 1 but I'm gonna try waiting until like 4 so that I can monitor if the games the system is choosing continue to have line drops throughout the day
Yes! that's the best thing to do. Its throwing the plays off and getting higher juice ( on these last few line drops ) but wouldn't the downside be that the more you wait you will also pay more juice sometimes on your picks anyway?
GL
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